Week 10 NFL Player Props: Best Player Props to Bet from Connor Allen
Week 9 Recap: Week 9 wound up being my worst of the season at -2.5 units but I really thought we were going to be at least even. Heading into Monday Night football we were down 1.2 units with Austin Ekeler over 4.5 receptions and alternate overs! Ekeler finished with 2 receptions but could have easily had 6 or 7. I know that sounds ridiculous considering his final line but if you go back and look, he had 7 total targets. Two receptions were taken away by penalty. He had THREE drops. He had another two that were deflected at the line of scrimmage. Entering Monday Night Football he had zero drops all season. He managed to have three in one game. Some of my plays didn’t pan out with the handicap. This one did, we just caught on the tail end of seriously negative variance. Even with the down week, I’m still up over 16 units on the season.
If you blindly bet $100 on every unique play from Ryan Noonan and myself, you would have profited over $3,000.
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Week 10 NFL Player Prop Bets
Breece Hall over 63.5 rushing yards (-110 Bet 365)
This is also widely available at DK, Caesars,I not only like the over but ladders as well. Breece has seen 20 touches per game since Robert Saleh said they are letting Breece loose and now he draws one of the best matchups imaginable. The Las Vegas Raiders run defense has been truly pathetic no matter how you slice it. They are 30th in rushing success rate allowed, 4.65 yards per carry to opposing RBs, and are top-7 in % of runs to gain 1,3,5, and 10 yards. They have allowed 8 running backs to clear 65 rushing yards already, four to clear 90, and two to clear 100. This includes absolute dustballs like Craig Reynolds (74), AJ Dillon (76), Joshua Kelley (65), and Najee Harris (65).
Risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit over 63.5 rushing yards
Risk 0.1 units to win 0.25 units on 90+ rushing yards at DK
Risk 0.1 units to win 0.45 on 100+ rushing at CZRS
Risk 0.1 units to win 0.60 on 110+ rushing yards at DK
Risk 0.1 units to win 0.85 units on 120+ rushing yards at DK
Aiden O'Connell under 207.5 passing yards (-115 MGM, -125 DK, -118 Builder, -137 CZRS)
We will likely see the Raiders go run-heavy with Interim HC Antonio Pierce saying he wants to establish the run. I also don’t expect the Jets to get up and push the Raiders into throwing a bunch in negative game script.
On top of game state lending towards a passing under, this is a brutally tough matchup with both DJ Reed and Sauce Gardner locking down the outsides. The Jets have only allowed 3-of-8 qbs to throw for more than 205 yards against them and Gardner/Reed missed the game against Philly.
I thought this would drop at 190 and i would play it to 195.
Risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit
Gus Edwards (BAL) U47.5 rushing yards (-115 DK, MGM, -120 CZrs, -114 46.5 FD)
Keaton Mitchell arrived in a big way last week with 138 rushing yards on just 9 carries. He was a big part of the Ravens gameplan even prior to their blowout win which is important to note. In the first half, Gus Edwards, Justice Hill, and Mitchell all had four carries a piece. Mitchell absolutely crushed with the opportunity he had and I would fully expect a three-back approach here or at the very minimum, an increase in workload for Mitchell.
This is a tough matchup against the Browns who rank second in rushing success rate allowed and have largely done a good job stopping opposing running games. The Ravens dominated the Browns last time around and Gus Edwards carried the load (15 carries to Justice Hills' 3). Despite that, Edwards only mustered 48 rushing yards. Adding in Mitchell and a potentially neutral game script makes this line too high.
Risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit
Chuba Hubbard (CAR) under 45.5 rushing yards (-11 Bet 365)
This is also available on DK, CZRS, MGM, and FD. Frank Reich spoke today at the Panthers press conference...
Question from reporter: "Miles Sanders had a pretty good game especially in the second half last week "Frank Reich nods emphatically and says yeah he did" Will he be back in the starting lineup?
Answer from Reich: " Chuba is still the "starter" (he said quote, un quote) but I really see it being a pretty even rotation between the two of those guys and still trying to get Raheem in a little bit where we can"
Sanders has been banged up this season and was inactive in Week 6, had a bye, then saw two carries out of the bye and 6 carries last week along with a big second half. It seems like Reich and Thomas Brown are not set on Chuba being the workhorse by any means and will continue to involve both backs as Reich mentioned a pretty even split. Also, according to the coachspeak index, Reich has been one of the most honest coaches about usage this season.
On top of this likely being a more balanced split (plus a sprinkle of Raheem Blackshear), the Bears' run defense has been legit good this year and added a great run defender, Montez Sweat just last week. The Bears on the season are allowing the fewest yards per carry to opposing teams at 3.26 and are:
- 3rd in EPA/Play
- 4th in rushing success rate allowed
They are also top-3 in the percentage of runs that go for fewer than a yard and 3 yards. There isn't a ton of wiggle room here but I would play this down to 40.
Risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit
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