SharpClarke's Best Week 11 NFL Bet: NYG @ WAS

Nov 17, 2023

Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

For Week 11, I'm going to pivot to a game total play in the Commanders-Giants matchup that I'm sure everyone will tune in for on Sunday. My favorite spreads on the week have moved out of ideal range since they opened, so this is my favorite bet left on the board on Friday. I am most comfortable when the media, NFL fans generally, and the betting market all agree on an extreme projection, and I see a chance it goes the other way. In this case, I do not believe it's a given that Tommy DeVito cannot play football. Let's dive in.

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Matchup Breakdown

WAS offense v. NYG defense

This is the easy one. The Commanders' offense has now put up three consecutive offensive performances that exceeded my projections in terms of holistic effectiveness. This late in the season, that can be a signal if it accompanies some kind of change. In this case, the Commanders have been trying since early in the season to reduce the sacks that Sam Howell was taking. At first, they tried to condense the formations and give him extra protection, but that did not work. They still had him dropping back and trying to make plays from a deep pocket. But halfway through the disastrous Giants' game, they started rolling him out more, giving him shorter drops, and providing more targets in the passing game, including leaking running backs. It has worked very well for him, and he has been able to lean into his strengths, including field vision and accuracy downfield. I expect that to continue here.

The Giants' injury report on defense is also a complete mess. This defense has been playing very lethargically since they essentially lost their season, and now will be without Adoree Jackson, and maybe even Kayvon Thibodeaux and/or Azeez Ojulari. This is a great spot for Howell to continue to get comfortable in this new offense and for Eric Bienemy to scheme up successful plays.

NYG offense v. WAS defense

Now for the tough sell. The Commanders are very unlikely to get to 37 points on their own (although it's not impossible). So, the Giants' offense will need to do something. This is where I think the projection is assuming the worst-case scenario. Tommy DeVito has played in three games, but two of them involved him coming off the bench in relief of an injured starter. This will be the first time that Brian Daboll has built a game plan around DeVito. He also went up against the Jets and the Cowboys in two of those games, and was more efficient throwing the ball against the Raiders. It was not a good spot for him to succeed last week, especially considering the "first 15 plays" that are supposed to help a quarterback, especially an inexperienced quarterback, get on track early, were disrupted by outlier-level bad field positions on the first two drives.

This week should be very different. The Commanders have struggled to defend the pass all year. Only the Broncos and Bears allow a higher EPA/dropback on defense, and both of those defenses were heavily injured early in the year. The Commanders have given up huge passing games to the likes of Desmond Ridder, Justin Fields, Russell Wilson, and, of course, Tyrod Taylor. And all of that was before they shipped off two of their best pass rushers in Chase Young and Montez Sweat. The porous secondary now has to cover for even longer into the play, and we saw Geno Smith capitalize last week. Tommy DeVito is an NFL quarterback. He's not a good one, but he is capable of moving the offense when the situation is favorable. And, if the Commanders do score easily, he likely will be playing in catch-up mode, against even softer looks.

Market Evaluation

This total on this game has not seen a lot of action. It opened at 37 and has been pretty tightly-bound across the board between 36.5 and 37.5. I expect that trend will continue, as most bettors recognize that 36.5 is too low for a game featuring the Commanders, whose offense is clicking and defense is struggling. But the appetite for betting an over in a game that might skew run-heavy (especially on the Giants' side) with a perceived bad quarterback likely is not strong. I'm comfortable recognizing that the market is not sending any strong signals here. I will trust my handicap.

Best Bet

I'm closing my eyes and taking what could be an ugly Over in this game. The best number on the board is at Pinnacle, Over 36.5 -112, but unfortunately, those of us in the United States cannot bet at Pinnacle. If you are State-side like me, I recommend Over 36.5 -115 at FanDuel, but will officially play Over 37 -110, which is widely available at all of the books listed below. Good luck if you agree, and follow along!

Over 37 -110 (DraftKings, Bet365, BetMGM, Caesars, Bookmaker, Circa. etc.)