Week 15 Monday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS: Top FanDuel & DraftKings Plays

Dec 18, 2023

Monday Night Single-Game DFS: Eagles at Seahawks

Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

MONDAY EVENING UPDATE

Geno Smith is surprisingly active, though even at an hour until kickoff, it is uncertain whether he or Drew Lock will be under-center for Seattle. Take this into consideration as while preparing lineups for this suddenly very messy Monday slate.

Welcome to the showdown breakdown for Week 15 Monday Night Football, an NFC battle featuring the Eagles and Seahawks. The Eagles are looking to maintain their dominant position in the NFC East after a Cowboys loss, while the Seahawks aim to keep their playoff hopes alive in a tightly contested NFC playoff race. Both teams come into this game with distinct playing styles and key quarterback injuries (or illnesses) that significantly impact DFS strategies. Let’s delve into the key plays for this Monday night slate.

For up-to-the-minute updates leading up to kickoff, be sure to join the 4for4 DFS subscriber-only Discord channel.

Game Environment

_{^{This chart represents the general offensive strategies for each team when the game outcome is still in question (win probability between 20% and 80%). The final two minutes of each half are also excluded. We’ll include last year’s statistics through Week 4 of the regular season. Teams in the upper-right quadrant pass more often and play faster than the average NFL team in neutral game scripts, and conversely, teams in the lower-left quadrant play slower and run more often than the average NFL team.}}

Ravens (-3, 24) @ Seahawks (+3, 21); Over/Under 45

The Eagles enter this game as a slight favorite, even with their quarterback at less than 100%. This season, they’ve been almost exactly average in pass rate and pace of play during neutral game scripts. Despite their strong record, the Eagles' game script score is only +0.1, 10th in the NFL, but it hasn't affected their methodical approach. They’re 22nd in overall pace and in pass plays per game. However, their inclination to throw deep helps add to their upside, as Hurts averages 4.2 passes of 20-plus air yards per game. The team's red-zone pass rate is about league average, at 3.5 attempts per game. Notably, they are the most run-heavy team in the league in third- and fourth-and-short situations, largely due to their highly successful "brotherly shove" quarterback sneak, which has a 95% success rate dating back to last season. Their 2.3 offensive touchdowns per game over their last three weeks is slightly less than their season-long average of 2.8, but still rank seventh-best in the league.

The Seahawks are underdogs with their implied team total shrinking by a point with the news of Geno Smith's absence. Their gameplay in neutral situations tends to be slightly elevated in pace and more pass-oriented, but that is with Smith under center. They also tend to quickly adjust to a more run-first approach whenever they're leading, even by less than a touchdown. The Seahawks are average in overall pass plays per game, but because of a below-average game script score, rank sixth-highest pace of play in the NFL. The Seahawks average 3.8 deep passes and 4.5 red zone pass attempts per game. However, Lock's numbers indicate a potential decline in high-leverage opportunities, as he's averaged just one red zone attempt per game in his 2023 opportunities. While the Eagles' defense, particularly their secondary, is an exploitable unit, the Seahawks rank bottom 10 in offensive touchdowns per game this season even with their starting quarterback.

Quarterback Analysis

_{^{While there may be 22 people on the field for every play, each play and game is heavily dictated by the performance of each team’s quarterback. While efficiency isn’t everything for quarterbacks, it is the best indicator of future performance, so we use a trio of metrics to suss out top performers at the position compared to lackluster ones. xDrive Success %, or True Drive Success Rate, is a measurement of a QB’s ability to turn drives into scores weighted by sample size. EPA or Expected Points Added, is a measurement of the QB’s contribution, both running and throwing, to the team’s scoring and production vs. the average NFL team. Completion % over Expected (CPOE)represents the accuracy and efficiency of a QB’s passes compared to league expectations.}}

Jalen Hurts is performing at an elite level this season, ranking in the top 10 in true drive success rate and EPA per game. Hurts has demonstrated his capability to lead efficient and effective drives even if his numbers aren’t quite at 2022 levels. Far from just a rushing quarterback, he’s fifth in completion percentage versus expectation, meaning any concerns about his accuracy are entirely unfounded. He’s eighth in total QBR and seventh in true passer rating. Hurts ever the duel threat, continues to offer significant value with his legs, ranking second among quarterbacks with 9.7 carries per game. He leads the position in red zone carries per game, and has added 12 rushing touchdowns, also the most among quarterbacks this season.

On the Seahawks' side, Drew Lock likely steps in as the starting quarterback in place of the injured Geno Smith, and his style contrasts starkly with Smith’s typically balanced approach. In Lock’s Week 14 performance against the 49ers, one of the toughest defenses in the NFL, Lock averaged a more than respectable 8.7 yards per attempt and two scores on 31 passes. He also threw two interceptions, but overall Lock showcases a willingness to push the ball downfield with a high-risk, high-reward playing style. Lock’s metrics suggest lower consistency than with Geno Smith under center, as he has a well below-average true drive success rate. Still, Lock’s EPA per game indicates there’s ceiling potential for both him and his top receiving weapons. The Eagles are bottom five in aFPA to quarterbacks this season.