Week 16 Monday Single-Game NFL DFS: Ravens and 49ers Top FanDuel & DraftKings Plays

Dec 25, 2023

Monday Night Single-Game DFS: Ravens @ 49ers

Sergio Estrada-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to the showdown breakdown for the exciting conclusion of the Week 16 slate, an interconference battle between two heavyweights in the Ravens and 49ers. Both teams are arguably the hottest in football having combined for just one total loss since Halloween. With superstars all over the field, this looks like it could be one of the most exciting primetime slates we’ve had in several seasons, and it’s not unreasonable to call this game a Super Bowl preview. Let’s dig into the key strategies and top plays for this fantastic conclusion to Christmas Day football.

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Game Environment

Ravens (20.25) @ 49ers (25.75); Over/Under 46

This chart represents the general offensive strategies for each team when the game outcome is still in question (win probability between 20% and 80%). The final two minutes of each half are also excluded. We’ll include last year’s statistics through Week 4 of the regular season. Teams in the upper-right quadrant pass more often and play faster than the average NFL team in neutral game scripts, and conversely, teams in the lower-left quadrant play slower and run more often than the average NFL team.

Quarterback Analysis

While there may be 22 people on the field for every play, each play and game is heavily dictated by the performance of each team’s quarterback. While efficiency isn’t everything for quarterbacks, it is the best indicator of future performance, so we use a trio of metrics to suss out top performers at the position compared to lackluster ones. xDrive Success %, or True Drive Success Rate, is a measurement of a QB’s ability to turn drives into scores weighted by sample size. EPA or Expected Points Added, is a measurement of the QB’s contribution, both running and throwing, to the team’s scoring and production vs. the average NFL team. Completion % over Expected (CPOE)represents the accuracy and efficiency of a QB’s passes compared to league expectations.