Week 16 NFL Vivid Picks Plays: Best Player Props

Last week’s 4for4 boost was so close. We lost by half a total tackle. Buckner finished with just four tackles and needed five. This happened because Pittsburgh had minimal play volume and was unable to consistently move the ball. DK Metcalf over 63.5 was a sweaty cash on the over, while Desmond Ridder under 183.5 passing yards won despite him throwing a 60-yard completion. The Falcons passing game is pathetically bad sometimes despite having two legitimate weapons in Kyle Pitts and Drake London. Anyways, on to Week 16!

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Week 16 Vivid Picks Plays

Terry Mclaurin under 51.5 receiving yards

Mclaurin popped off last week on the back of two Jacoby Brissett bombs. Before that, things seemed to be crumbling around him with games of 0, 50, 43, and 33 receiving yards in the weeks prior. Now, he draws one of the toughest matchups in the league against the Jets. Mclaurin runs nearly 90% of his routes from the outside, meaning he draws by far the toughest matchup. Howell was also benched last week and may be more conservative here, with Brissett looking over his shoulder.

I thought this would come in lower than this and think there is a good bit of value here, given the instability at QB and extremely tough matchup.

Jaylen Warren over 69.5 rushing and receiving yards

Warren is set up for success this week. He had a season-high 55% of the backfield touches last week and now draws the Bengals, who are allowing over 4.5 yards per carry, are 27th in explosive run rate allowed, and 28th in rushing success rate allowed. They were bad on a play-to-play basis BEFORE losing run-stuffing DT DJ Reader. This is a massive deal, as they have allowed over 5.5 yards per carry on the 109 snaps without Reader so far this season (H/T Rich Hribar). With Mason Rudolph at QB, I expect them to lean on the run in neutral or positive game scripts. The issue is, Rudolph presents a level of variance that makes me more interested in the combined yardage. If they fall behind and are forced to throw it more, a rushing and receiving ticket is much, much stronger.

Warren is coming off a season-high in route participation (83%) and on the year has a 28% target per route run rate. If they fall behind, Warren will get all of the work as the pass-catcher. I would also expect multiple designed receptions for Warren as a solid base. He has three designed targets each of the last three weeks. This sets a solid pass-catching floor, even in positive game scripts.

Jordan Love under 232.5 passing yards

Love has been crushing lately against subpar competition. The Bears, Giants, Lions, Chargers, and Steelers are all below-average defenses, and those are 5 of his last 6 opponents. Now he draws the Panthers, who have sneakily been playing much better. Since their Week 7 bye, the Panthers haven’t allowed a single QB to throw for more than 205 passing yards and are allowing just 5.69 yards per attempt. They are coming together as a unit, and teams aren’t throwing much on them.

If you like my plays below, Vivid is offering a FREE boost! All you have to do is sign up using our code (4for4sub), click on “NFL,” click on the special boost pinned to the top, and your play will be boosted after you submit it!