Week 16 Saturday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS: Top FanDuel & DraftKings Plays

Dec 21, 2023

Saturday Night Single-Game DFS: Bills at Chargers

Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to the showdown breakdown for Week 16 Saturday Night Football, showcasing a pivotal inter-conference clash between the Bills and the Chargers. This game is crucial for the 6–8 Bills, who are vying for a playoff spot in a tightly contested AFC. Meanwhile, the Chargers—standing at 5-9 and out of playoff contention—are looking entirely towards the future. With significant changes in their coaching staff and key player absences on the Los Angeles side of the ball, this game presents an obvious path to a Buffalo onslaught, but there is some nuance we can uncover by digging into the data. Let’s dive into the key plays and strategies for this seemingly-lopsided one-game slate.

For up-to-the-minute updates leading up to kickoff, be sure to join the 4for4 DFS subscriber-only Discord channel.

Game Environment

_{^{This chart represents the general offensive strategies for each team when the game outcome is still in question (win probability between 20% and 80%). The final two minutes of each half are also excluded. We’ll include last year’s statistics through Week 4 of the regular season. Teams in the upper-right quadrant pass more often and play faster than the average NFL team in neutral game scripts, and conversely, teams in the lower-left quadrant play slower and run more often than the average NFL team.}}

Bills (28) @ Chargers (16); Over/Under 44

Buffalo leans heavily on their passing game and plays at a pace faster than the league average in neutral game scripts. But their fifth-best average score differential significantly influences their overall pace and passing to the point you might think they’re fairly conservative. In situations where they have the lead, the Bills have increasingly relied on James Cook, slightly shifting Allen from his usual gunslinger approach, while still creating opportune times to take shots. The Bills are 14th in pass plays per game and 25th in pace, again a testament to the favorable game scripts they’ve found themselves in of late. Buffalo ranks fourth in the NFL in offensive touchdowns per game.

The Chargers, now under the direction of Easton Stick, present a stark contrast from the team with Justin Herbert. The team has seen a significant slowdown in pace and a reduction in passing, as one might expect. Although they currently maintain a top-five ranking in pace for the season, these numbers should continue declining throughout the rest of the season. Without Herbert, and potentially without Keenan Allen, the Chargers will likely struggle to get any red zone passing attempts. Simply put—the offense is in complete disarray. Stick has added some fantasy scoring in garbage time, but don’t let that fool you—this offense is a mess and is wholly unreliable moving forward.

Quarterback Analysis

_{^{While there may be 22 people on the field for every play, each play and game is heavily dictated by the performance of each team’s quarterback. While efficiency isn’t everything for quarterbacks, it is the best indicator of future performance, so we use a trio of metrics to suss out top performers at the position compared to lackluster ones. xDrive Success %, or True Drive Success Rate, is a measurement of a QB’s ability to turn drives into scores weighted by sample size. EPA or Expected Points Added, is a measurement of the QB’s contribution, both running and throwing, to the team’s scoring and production vs. the average NFL team. Completion % over Expected (CPOE)represents the accuracy and efficiency of a QB’s passes compared to league expectations.}}

Allen's efficiency stats are impressive across the board, particularly since the departure of former offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey. Allen ranks top 10 in completion percentage vs. expectation (CPOE) and True Drive Success Rate and his EPA per game has now moved into the top five among all quarterbacks. He’s third-best in QBR while throwing the fifth-most pass attempts. Should the Bills overtake the Dolphins and miraculously clinch the division (not out of the question anymore), Allen's case for the MVP award would be as good as anyone’s.

Stick's tenure as the Chargers' starter, albeit brief, has been a struggle. He’s outside the top forty in CPOE. In terms of True Drive Success Rate, Stick's performance is equally unimpressive. Stick's EPA per game is currently the worst among all players to start a game at quarterback this season. Despite these challenges, Stick has found some fantasy relevance, primarily due to garbage time scoring, but that’s not something to hang your hat on. Stick somehow passed less than Herbert’s season-long average even with the game entirely out of reach for the entire second half. It does not appear that Stick is a starting-caliber NFL quarterback.