Wild Card Sunday Single-Game NFL DFS: Rams and Lions Top FanDuel & DraftKings Plays

Jan 13, 2024

Wild Card Sunday Single-Game DFS: Rams at Lions

Welcome to the showdown breakdown for Wild Card Sunday Night Football, where we dive deep into this juicy storyline-filled battle between the Rams and Lions. Matthew Stafford returns to his old stomping grounds as he tries to snuff out what has been the most successful regular season for the Lions in three decades. The Lions finished the season just 4-3, but are looking to make these playoffs one to remember after tying for the best record in the NFC. Meanwhile, the Rams look to be firing on all cylinders at just the right time. Let’s dig into the top plays and key strategies for this Sunday night single-game slate.

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Game Environment

_{^{This chart represents the general offensive strategies for each team when the game outcome is still in question (win probability between 20% and 80%). The final two minutes of each half are also excluded. We’ll include last year’s statistics through Week 4 of the regular season. Teams in the upper-right quadrant pass more often and play faster than the average NFL team in neutral game scripts, and conversely, teams in the lower-left quadrant play slower and run more often than the average NFL team.}}

Lions (27.25) @ Rams (24.25); Over/Under 51.5

The Rams, having clinched their playoff spot early, finished the season at a respectable 10-7. They've won seven of their last eight games with their sole loss coming against the powerhouse Ravens. Finishing two games behind the 49ers in the AFC West, the Rams still had the luxury of resting key players in the final week, and appear relatively healthy heading into this game.

Statistically, they are a middle-of-the-road team in terms of pace and passing in neutral game scripts, and they tend to slow down even more when ahead. This approach has led to them having the sixth-slowest overall pace in the league. Deep throws are not their forte, averaging just 3.9 per game, slightly below average. However, Stafford's red-zone aggression remains, with the Rams averaging 5.6 passes inside the 20 per game, top-10 in the league. They averaged 2.6 touchdowns per game, eighth-highest in the NFL.

On the other side, the Lions, have seen a slightly rocky path towards the season's end. Despite a strong 8-2 start, they finished just above .500 to close the year, with two of their three late losses coming against playoff-bound teams. Despite having a top-10 average score differential, they threw 35.7 times per game, the ninth-most in the league. Jared Goff's preference for short passes was evident all season, as he averaged just 2.9 deep passes per game, well below the league average. Like Stafford, his red-zone passing is above average but only slightly. The Lions utilize their running backs extensively inside the 10. They averaged 3.4 touchdowns per game this season, the second-highest in the NFL behind only the 49ers.

Quarterback Analysis

_{^{While there may be 22 people on the field for every play, each play and game is heavily dictated by the performance of each team’s quarterback. While efficiency isn’t everything for quarterbacks, it is the best indicator of future performance, so we use a trio of metrics to suss out top performers at the position compared to lackluster ones. xDrive Success %, or True Drive Success Rate, is a measurement of a QB’s ability to turn drives into scores weighted by sample size. EPA or Expected Points Added, is a measurement of the QB’s contribution, both running and throwing, to the team’s scoring and production vs. the average NFL team. Completion % over Expected (CPOE)represents the accuracy and efficiency of a QB’s passes compared to league expectations.}}

Returning to Detroit for this exciting playoff showdown, Matthew Stafford had a complete resurgence in 2023. Following a challenging 2022 marred by elbow injury complications, Stafford bounced back impressively, playing a pivotal role in Puka Nacua's transcendent rookie season. Nacua became the most productive rookie receiver in history in large part thanks to Stafford’s history of leaning on superstars when they’re playing at their peak, but this year, Stafford’s weapons around his top wideout are as strong as they’ve ever been.

Despite ranking below league average in completion percentage over expectation, Stafford's array of advanced metrics suggests this gunslinger is still an elite quarterback: he finished eighth in AYA, seventh in true passer rating, sixth in QBR, and top five in true drive success rate. While his mobility isn't a factor at all, Stafford concluded 2023 with the 11th most passing touchdowns and the 14th-most fantasy points per game among quarterbacks. He faces a Detroit defense that has is worst among playoff teams in adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to quarterbacks.

Jared Goff's 2023 season matches Stafford tit-for-tat. Goff’s Expected Points Added (EPA) per game is closely aligned with Stafford. And despite the ranking falling off in the final weeks of the season, Goff finished top 15 among quarterbacks in true drive success rate as well. He finished eighth in true passer rating, seventh in AYA, and fifth in true completion percentage. And while Goff's approach contrasts with Stafford's aggressive downfield style, his short-area passing has worked wonders for the Detroit offense, resulting in the fourth-most passing touchdowns this season. Goff finished 11th among quarterbacks in fantasy points per game and faces a Rams defense that ranked bottom-five in aFPA to quarterbacks as well.