Week 6 Monday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS: Top FanDuel & DraftKings Plays

Oct 16, 2023

Monday Night Football Single-Game DFS: Cowboys vs. Chargers

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to the showdown breakdown for Week 6 Monday Night Football, where the Dallas Cowboys, fresh off a humbling 42-10 loss to the 49ers, travel to the City of Angels to face the well-rested Los Angeles Chargers at SoFi Stadium. The Chargers, coming off their bye week and two solid wins against the Vikings and Raiders, are 2-2 and itching to extend their winning streak and attempt to stay in striking distance of the 5-1 Chiefs. Dallas is at a pivotal point, sitting at a 3-2 record and looking to make ground in the NFC East after losses by all three other teams in Week 6. Both squads have key players returning from injuries, most notably star running back Austin Ekeler, making this matchup all the more intriguing for DFS gamers. Let's dive into this final clash for Week 6 from a DFS perspective.

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Game Environment

^{This chart represents the general offensive strategies for each team when the game outcome is still in question (win probability between 20% and 80%). The final two minutes of each half are also excluded. We’ll include last year’s statistics through Week 4 of the regular season. Teams in the upper-right quadrant pass more often and play faster than the average NFL team in neutral game scripts, and conversely, teams in the lower-left quadrant play slower and run more often than the average NFL team.}

Dallas Cowboys (-2, 26.25) @ Los Angeles Chargers (+2, 24.75); Over/Under 51.0

The Cowboys find themselves as 2-point road favorites, a nod to their potential for explosive offense even in the wake of last week's debacle. They've been pass-happy in the red zone, with Dak Prescott leading the league in red zone pass attempts. It's noteworthy, however, that they pass less than the NFL average in neutral game scripts and are well below average in terms of general passing aggressiveness. They're sitting at 18th in pass plays per game and 22nd in air yards per game, indicative of a conservative approach that might need to change if they're to regain their early-season form.

For the Chargers, the pace of play could be a significant factor and is certainly factoring into this game’s high total of 51 points. They operate at the league's fastest rate in neutral game scripts. Whether that changes with Austin Ekeler back in the lineup remains to be seen. They have an implied total of 24.75, and I personally wouldn’t have been shocked to see this line set with the Chargers favored instead. Quarterback Justin Herbert is not shy about airing it out, ranking fifth in air yards per game and deep attempts, providing a counterpoint to the more conservative Cowboys' passing game when the game is close.

Quarterback Analysis

^{While there may be 22 people on the field for every play, each play and game is heavily dictated by the performance of each team’s quarterback. While efficiency isn’t everything for quarterbacks, it is the best indicator of future performance, so we use a trio of metrics to suss out top performers at the position compared to lackluster ones. xDrive Success %, or True Drive Success Rate, is a measurement of a QB’s ability to turn drives into scores weighted by sample size. EPA or Expected Points Added, is a measurement of the QB’s contribution, both running and throwing, to the team’s scoring and production vs. the average NFL team. Completion % over Expected (CPOE)represents the accuracy and efficiency of a QB’s passes compared to league expectations.}

Dak Prescott enters Week 6 with a dichotomy in his performance metrics. He's ranked as 23rd among quarterbacks in adjusted yards per attempt and 24th in fantasy points per dropback, but advanced metrics tell a more nuanced tale. He is fourth in QBR and 12th in total Expected Points Added. His completion percentage against man coverage is an impressive 69%, top three at the position, and he’s top five in Playerprofiler's Accuracy Rating. The Dallas receiving corps has been somewhat unreliable, which hasn’t helped matters for Prescott, contributing to eight dropped passes, the eighth most in the NFL. Despite Prescott's rough outing against the 49ers, the overall metrics suggest that he remains capable of turning around his team’s—and his own DFS scoring—fortunes.

On the other side, Justin Herbert is enjoying a stellar season so far. He's QB5 in adjusted yards per attempt, QB4 in fantasy points per dropback, and QB2 in expected fantasy points per game. His true completion percentage ranks sixth best in the NFL, and he's been particularly effective in the red zone, boasting the sixth-best completion percentage inside the 20. Adding to his fantasy floor and ceiling, Herbert is rushing more than anticipated, averaging 5.0 rushes per game, including 1.3 rushes inside the red zone, and has already found the end zone on the ground three times. The Chargers are averaging 3.3 offensive touchdowns per game, the fifth-best in the league. Both quarterbacks offer well above league-average efficiency in per-pass, per-drive, and per-game metrics. Herbert outshines in completion percentage vs. expectation and EPA per game, while Prescott holds a slight edge in turning drives into scores, all pointing to a game that has the potential for a shootout.