Week 6 NFL Pick'em & Survivor Pool Picks: Mahomes Remains Undefeated vs. Broncos

Oct 11, 2023

Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY

This week we have five spreads of a touchdown or more with plenty of smaller ones which is helpful in this space. Hopefully, with the help of PoolGenius' customizable tools and data, we can select matchups with some value so that you can get to the top of those leaderboards in pick 'em contests and survive another week in knockout pools.

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Season Discounts For 2023

Week 5 Recap

I went 3-1 in my picks last week with my upset (Houston) not coming through, and the Dolphins, Lions, and Eagles all doing their jobs. Let’s move on to Week 6, where hopefully, we find success in both pick'em and survivor formats.

Pick'em Pool Breakdown

Before I get into the picks, note I’m not suggesting you should make all of the picks listed below. The best Week 6 picks for your NFL pool depend on strategy factors such as your pool’s size, rules, and prize structure, plus situational factors like your current place in the standings and the number of weeks remaining.

However, these picks do provide some of the best opportunities to differentiate your Week 6 picks from your pool opponents by taking on only a modest amount of risk, or no additional risk at all.

Favorite Favorites

Buffalo Bills vs. Giants

This game has the largest spread of the week at -14 and I see another AFC East beating up on the Giants for the second week in a row. Injuries are piling up for New York with Daniel Jones (neck), Saquon Barkley (ankle), and Wan'Dale Robinson (concussion) all banged up, behind a porous offensive line.

Buffalo has 87% win odds via both Vegas and PoolGenius and like all the favorites, you’ll win or lose this with most of your poolmats as 99% of the public is backing the Bills.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Broncos

Patrick Mahomes has never lost to the Broncos and it won’t happen this week, either. Denver is a disaster this season and they don’t have enough juice on either side of the ball to take down the Chiefs on the road. Kansas City is a 10.5-point favorite on Thursday night with 84% win odds.

The public is rolling with the Chiefs 99% of the time so you will succeed or fail with your poolmates.

Sensibly Priced Favorite

San Francisco @ Browns

These are two very good defenses going to battle, but the advantage goes to the 49ers on the other side of the ball. Brock Purdy has this offense humming with all his weapons healthy. San Francisco is a six-point favorite in this one, with 68% PoolGenius win odds.

Public bettors are taking the road team 95% of the time, which is high, but not as high as games with similar spreads like the Rams (97%) or the Eagles (96%).

Value Favorite

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Seahawks

Seattle struggles against the pass and Joe Burrow and his talented weaponry will take full advantage. I like the Bengals to continue to heat up at home this week. Cincy is a 2.5-point favorite in this one with just 58% Vegas odds to win.

There’s some nice value in this pick as just 69% of public bettors are selecting the Bengals this week.

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Survivor Picks for Week 6

Win Odds: Top 5 Week 6 Picks

Stating the obvious here, but higher is better when it comes to winning odds. Everything else being equal, you want to pick the team with the best likelihood of making it through.

Here are the five safest teams this week, according to the PoolGenius Data Grid model (chances to win in parentheses):

Miami Dolphins vs. Panthers (88%, 14-point favorites)
Buffalo Bills vs. Giants (88%, 14-point favorites)
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Broncos (83%, 10.5- point favorites)
Philadelphia Eagles @ Jets (74%, 7-point favorites)
LA Rams vs. Cardinals (73%, 7-point favorites)

Pick Popularity

Diversifying your survivor picks from the crowd is an advantageous strategy, as the pool winnings can increase significantly if your pick hits and another popular pick loses.

Here are the five most popular survivor picks for Week 6 (referencing Data Grid mentioned earlier):