SharpClarke's Best Week 7 NFL Bet: NYG v. WAS

Oct 20, 2023

Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

To win long-term on the NFL, in my opinion, you have to be willing to take some bets that look ugly. I use a very thorough methodology to create projected median outcomes and, at this point in the season, I trust that methodology. Here, it tells me to take a bet that makes my stomach turn just a little bit, but sometimes those are the best bets to make. Other times, they don't end up looking good, but even the best bets on NFL sides at this point in the week are not going to be much better than 55% outcomes. Let's talk about the divisional "showdown" between the Washington Commanders and New York Giants.

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Matchup Breakdown

NYG offense v. WAS defense

Let's start with the elephant in the room: the Giants' offensive line is banged up. They just officially ruled out Andrew Thomas, John Michael Schmitz, and Matt Peart. In addition, Josh Ezeudu looks like he might be headed to the IR, and Evan Neal is questionable. I typically try to avoid betting against teams with cluster offensive line injuries, but there is a difference here. This is not a pop-up injury with unexpected consequences. The Giants have been playing down multiple linemen in virtually every game this season. And outside of Andrew Thomas, who hasn't played since Week 1, none of these guys are much better (if at all better) than replacement-level players anyway. The replacements, including Justin Pugh, have already been factored into my team ratings because the Giants have been in rough shape all year. So, we can project the Giants' offense close to their season level without much further downside.

I also do not care who plays quarterback for them here because Tyrod Taylor, if anything, might be an upgrade over Daniel Jones in these circumstances. He is twitchier, makes quicker decisions, and seems more willing to push the ball downfield. But even if it is Jones at quarterback, both of these players are capable of keeping an aggressive run defense on its toes despite poor offensive line play because they are a true threat to run the ball on any given play. We saw the Washington defense struggle against Justin Fields, Jalen Hurts, and Josh Allen in their three losses, and while I'm not saying Taylor and Jones are on the same level, I do think there is a schematic advantage here to having a mobile quarterback that the Giants can exploit. Last year, the Giants beat and tied Washington in two games despite being underdogs in both, in part due to this schematic advantage. The reputation of the Commanders' defense continues to outpace its actual quality of play on the field, so this is a good matchup for New York.

WAS offense v. NYG defense

Speaking of matchups, let's talk a little bit about the Giants' schedule to date. They have played the Cowboys, Cardinals, 49ers, Seahawks, Dolphins, and Bills. In terms of my adjusted effectiveness ratings (which measure holistic performance relative to opponent strength), that includes four of the top eight offenses in the NFL, and both the Seahawks and Cardinals are pretty good offensively as well. In most of those games, the opposing offense did not have a particularly strong performance relative to their season average. We know that defensive metrics are overly impacted by the quality of opponents faced, and this Giants' defense has been against the cream of the crop virtually every week. So, yes, they are the 29th-ranked defense in raw efficiency metrics. But they are much better than that when adjusting for the opponent.

Enter Sam Howell, who loves to hold onto the ball trying to make a play. He is excellent at navigating a clean pocket and keeping his eyes downfield while the play develops, then delivering a beautiful ball. But the Giants' highly-aggressive blitz does not let these plays develop. The quarterbacks who perform best against a blitz are those who make quick decisions, diagnose blitzes effectively pre-snap, and avoid negative plays when things don't quite go according to play. That is essentially the opposite of who Howell is as a quarterback. The Giants should be able to capitalize and create some negative plays here. If the Commanders are going to win and cover, it likely involves consistent success running the ball, which is possible against this defense. But I expect enough drives to stall out or end in turnovers to give the Giants a chance.

Market Evaluation

The line on this game opened around Commanders -2, then dipped a little bit in the early week, before making a slow climb towards Commanders -3. As confirmation came in on the state of the Giants' offensive line, some books have moved to Commanders -3 -105, and others may follow shortly. There may even be enough money to push this to flat 3, but there will be a buy point at some point. For me, Giants +3 -115 is that buy point, and I'm willing to fire at current prices.

Best Bet

The Commanders probably have the better quarterback and definitely have the better offensive line and skill players. But my numbers suggest this game is virtually a pick 'em at home for the Giants, with a better defense and a better coach. Given that price discrepancy, I see some value on NYG +3 -115, available currently at Circa, FanDuel, and BetMGM. For reference, a comparable price on NYG +2.5 is +105, available at Caesars. I like either option, and see value in the moneyline at +130 as well.

NYG +3 -115 (FanDuel, Circa, BetMGM)