Week 7 NFL Pick'em & Survivor Pool Picks: Seattle Gets Right on Home Turf

Oct 18, 2023

Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

This week there are no massive spreads, with more parity around the NFL. Hopefully, with the help of PoolGenius' customizable tools and data, we can still select matchups with some value so that you can get to the top of those leaderboards in pick'em contests and survive another week in knockout pools.

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Week 6 Recap

Only the 49ers let me down last week with the Chiefs, Bengals, and Bills all securing victories. That brings my total so far to 6-2 since starting this column in Week 5.

Pick'em Pool Breakdown

Before I get into the picks, note I’m not suggesting you should make all of the picks listed below. The best Week 7 picks for your NFL pool depend on strategy factors such as your pool’s size, rules, and prize structure, plus situational factors like your current place in the standings and the number of weeks remaining.

However, these picks do provide some of the best opportunities to differentiate your Week 7 picks from your pool opponents by taking on only a modest amount of risk, or no additional risk at all.

Favorite Favorites

Buffalo Bills @ Patriots

The Bills are coming off a close call but get a soft landing on the road in New England. It’s been tough to score this season for the Patriots and Buffalo’s defense can hold them despite some injuries.

This game has the biggest spread of the weekend (Buffalo -8.5), and like all the favorites, you’ll win or lose this with most of your poolmates as 98% of the public is backing the Bills.

Seattle Seahawks vs. Cardinals

This is the perfect get-right game for the Seahawks as they take on Arizona at home. Ken Walker will continue to excel on the ground and the hostile environment will be too much for this struggling Cardinals team. Seattle boasts the second-highest spread of the week (-8) with 77% Vegas odds to win.

The public is rolling with the Seahawks 97% of the time so you will succeed or fail with most of your poolmates.

Sensibly Priced Favorite

Las Vegas Raiders @ Bears

This may be a battle of backup QBs, but the Raiders have more juice between the havoc-wreaking Maxx Crosby on the defensive side and the WR duo of Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers, along with Josh Jacobs in the ground game. Las Vegas is a 3-point favorite in this one, with PoolGenius win odds of 60%.

There’s value here since only 83% of the public is selecting the Raiders to win this week.

Value Pick

Green Bay Packers @ Broncos

Fresh off a week of rest, the Packers have the advantage here and hopefully will have Aaron Jones in the mix, as Denver sits last in the NFL in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to RBs. Green Bay has been inconsistent so this isn’t a gimme on the road, but Denver’s offense won’t get it done.

The Packers are a 1-point favorite, with 53% Vegas odds to win on Sunday. Only 73% of public bettors are taking Green Bay so there is value in the selection.

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Survivor Picks for Week 7

Win Odds: Top 5 Week 7 Picks

Stating the obvious here, but higher is better when it comes to winning odds. Everything else being equal, you want to pick the team with the best likelihood of making it through.

Here are the five safest teams this week, according to the PoolGenius Data Grid model (chances to win in parentheses):

Buffalo Bills @ Patriots (78%, 8.5-point favorites)
Seattle Seahawks vs. Cardinals (77%, 8-point favorites)
San Francisco 49ers @ Vikings (74%, 7-point favorites)
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Chargers (69%, 5.5-point favorites)
Las Vegas Raiders @ Bears (60%, 3-point favorites)

Pick Popularity

Diversifying your survivor picks from the crowd is an advantageous strategy, as the pool winnings can increase significantly if your pick hits and another popular pick loses.

Here are the five most popular survivor picks for Week 7 (referencing Data Grid mentioned earlier):