Week 7 Sunday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS: Top FanDuel & DraftKings Plays

Oct 21, 2023

Sunday Night Football Single-Game DFS: Dolphins vs. Eagles

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to the showdown breakdown for Week 7 Sunday Night Football, where the Dolphins head to Philadelphia Eagles in a highly anticipated clash between two NFL heavyweights. Both teams are 5-1, and already jockeying for playoff playoff positioning as both currently occupy the two-seed in their respective conferences. While the secondaries for both teams are ailing with injuries—Xavien Howard and Nik Needham are questionable for the Dolphins (and CB Jalen Ramsey is close to returning, but already ruled out for this one) while the Eagles are without CB Bradley Roby and S Reed Blankenship—these two premier and relatively healthy offenses seem primed and ready to take full advantage. Let's dive into this high-octane matchup to discover the best strategies for single-game DFS players.

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Game Environment

^{This chart represents the general offensive strategies for each team when the game outcome is still in question (win probability between 20% and 80%). The final two minutes of each half are also excluded. We’ll include last year’s statistics through Week 4 of the regular season. Teams in the upper-right quadrant pass more often and play faster than the average NFL team in neutral game scripts, and conversely, teams in the lower-left quadrant play slower and run more often than the average NFL team.}

Dolphins (+2.5, 24.5) vs. Eagles (-2.5, 27); Over/Under 51.5

The Dolphins come into this game with an implied total of 24.5 points and are slight underdogs with the spread set at 2.5, which is relatively unfamiliar territory for the Dolphins this season.

When looking at how these teams play in neutral game scripts, the game environment almost appears to be a tale of two tempos: Miami is one of the fastest-paced teams in the NFL, but, having found significant success on the ground, moderates their pass rate. Yet Miami has managed to lead the NFL in pass yards per game. The defense, however, leaves much to be desired, ranking 25th in rush defense DVOA and 22nd in pass defense, creating a high shootout potential, especially against a robust Eagles offense on the other side.

The Eagles, with an implied total of 27 points, bring a surprisingly average pass rate and a middle-of-the-road 25th rank in pace of play. But don't let these moderate numbers fool you into thinking they’re not aggressive. Jalen Hurts has thrown the most 20-plus air-yard passes in the NFL this season. The Eagles' offense is top-10 in pass DVOA and top five in rush DVOA, making them a balanced yet hyper-efficient unit. They excel in deep passing and short yardage, a nightmare for defensive coordinators.

Quarterback Analysis

^{While there may be 22 people on the field for every play, each play and game is heavily dictated by the performance of each team’s quarterback. While efficiency isn’t everything for quarterbacks, it is the best indicator of future performance, so we use a trio of metrics to suss out top performers at the position compared to lackluster ones. xDrive Success %, or True Drive Success Rate, is a measurement of a QB’s ability to turn drives into scores weighted by sample size. EPA or Expected Points Added, is a measurement of the QB’s contribution, both running and throwing, to the team’s scoring and production vs. the average NFL team. Completion % over Expected (CPOE)represents the accuracy and efficiency of a QB’s passes compared to league expectations.}

Jalen Hurts is having yet another fantastic season, as he ranks in the top five in the NFL in per-pass, per-drive, and per-game efficiency metrics as noted on the chart above. Although he's 18th among quarterbacks in adjusted yards per attempt, he’s ninth in true completion percentage and QBR. Where Hurts truly shines is his rushing game, where he's first among quarterbacks in carries per game and carries inside the 20-yard line. This has led to him having the most rushing TDs and rushing fantasy points per game of any quarterback this season. His expected fantasy points per game also rank first, meaning his third-best fantasy points per game could actually be seen as slightly underperforming relative to his opportunity value.

Not to be outdone, Tua Tagovailoa is in the midst of his best season as a pro. He ranks first in per-drive efficiency measured by true drive success rate and in per-game efficiency as measured by EPA per game. He's also second in completion percentage vs. expectation and true passer rating. His QBR and adjusted yards per attempt also rank at the top of the NFL. Pair that with a killer run game and WR Tyreek Hill, who's on a record-breaking receiving pace, and you’ve got people throwing around the “revolutionary” word when describing this Miami offense. The Eagles' defense has been turning into one of the biggest pass funnels in the NFL. They rank seventh best in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs but are the most generous to wideouts and tight ends.