SharpClarke's Best Week 8 NFL Bet: MIN @ GB
For this week's matchup, I don't think we need to plug our noses the way we did when we fired on the Giants last week. I anticipate the Vikings will be a popular team, even on the road, in an environment that Kirk Cousins has historically struggled in. But even on Friday, I don't think the market is accurately pricing the gap between these teams, who should be deemed in different tiers based on their quality of play so far this season. Let's dive into the matchups and why I think the Vikings are the right side.
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Matchup Breakdown
MIN offense v. GB defense
Minnesota's offense has quietly been humming this season outside of some untimely turnovers. They have lost the fourth-most total EPA in the NFL on offensive turnovers, and many of these were not strongly indicative of bad offense. The Justin Jefferson deep catch that led to a fumble out of the endzone against Philadelphia highlights a series of unfortunate plays that have hampered the Vikings' overall production. When Jefferson got hurt, I feared that it was the nail in the coffin of a season that could have been good for the Vikings. But they responded with an ugly win against Chicago and then a triumphant performance against the 49ers on Monday night. They demonstrated that the offense is capable of moving forward without its best player, and put some meaningful wins on the board. The offensive line was banged up early in the year, and the protection and run blocking has been much improved since they got healthy. Even without Jefferson, this projects to be a top-10 offense moving forward.
So, color me skeptical that this Green Bay Packers' defense will be able to shut them down after the 49ers could not. I had high hopes for the Packers improving their defense this season, but it turns out Joe Barry just cannot get a good performance out of this unit and probably needs to move on. Their overall numbers are not good, posting the 13th-highest EPA/play allowed (-0.017) and 9th-highest success rate (45.5%) on the season, despite facing an absolutely mediocre set of opposing offenses in Chicago, Atlanta, New Orleans, Detroit, Las Vegas, and Denver. Yes, Detroit is a good offense, and they got absolutely rolled. But in context, the numbers are even worse. The Packers have benefitted from playing so much of their games from behind, ranking 7th in defensive snaps with a <25% win probability. When teams have a lead, they tend to be less aggressive, leading to a drop-off in both EPA/play and Success Rate league-wide when teams have a lead. Throw on top of that some key injuries, and I think it's unlikely they are able to put up too much resistance here, even if there is some weather to worry about. Kirk Cousins is playing the best football of his career, and the run game is finally helping with a healthy offensive line. Things get better for the Packers if Jaire Alexander, De'Vondre Campbell, and Devonte Wyatt all play. But I don't think it will be enough to consistently stop this offense.
GB offense v. MIN defense
I also came into the season with high hopes for the Packers' offense. Injuries have really derailed this team's progress, as it takes time for young players to really gel, and the constant line-up fluctuations have not helped. But whether the problem is the scheme, the weapons, or Jordan Love himself, this offense is not working. Every now and then, a play design opens up an easy throw, and Love shows he can handle things. But it has been way too infrequent. More often than not, the Packers are trying to run the ball to hide Love, which makes things easy for the defense. When Love does drop back to pass, it looks clunky and inconsistent. He seems to either hit the quick throw or chuck the ball downfield to a streaking receiver. There is not much in-between. This has led to a gap between success rate and EPA/play, indicating statistically what I see with my eyes: that he relies on big plays for any kind of success.
As a result, Love has not performed well against the blitz this season. The Packers have not actually faced a lot of blitz-heavy teams, and have not faced teams that get a lot of pressure. In fact, four of six opponents (Bears, Saints, Raiders, Broncos) are bottom-6 in pressure rate on the season. Love's slower processing could be a major problem against these Vikings, who blitz at a significantly higher rate than any team in the NFL, and get pressure when quarterbacks are not able to combat this aggressiveness effectively. Love will almost certainly make some key mistakes here. But more importantly, I expect third downs to be very difficult for him to navigate. The Vikings are still being discussed as a bad defense based on pre-season priors, yet their statistical performance has been middle-of-the-pack, and adjusting for opponents (including the Chiefs, Chargers, Eagles, and 49ers), they have been even better. This is a good spot for them, and any weather that impacts Cousins will also impact Love. There's a good chance the home crowd is booing at some point in this game.
Market Evaluation
The look-ahead line on this game was wrong to begin with, in my opinion. The Packers were listed as short favorites, but I thought it should have been the other way around. Then, last week, the Packers looked miserable against a mediocre Broncos team and the Vikings outplayed one of the best teams in the NFL on prime time. The market has adjusted a little bit, flipping the Vikings to favorites. But the priors are still weighing down this number, which should continue to rise as we approach kick-off. It does concern me a little bit that there has not been stronger market support for the Vikings, considering their impressive win. It's possible that the weather and environment in Green Bay might materially disrupt Cousins. Whenever the market shows strong resistance late in the week, it's a good idea to not over-leverage. I've already bet this and obviously advocate for a bet at the current number, but I would keep the exposure to a reasonable size given the market movement.
Best Bet
At any number under the 3, I'm comfortable playing Minnesota here. If you didn't get the bet early, I would still play it at MIN -1.5 -110, widely available in the market. Given that I don't believe Love should fare any better than Cousins in bad weather, I'm comfortable playing this regardless of the weather report and am locking in early in case the number moves higher.
MIN -1.5 -110 (FanDuel, Circa, DraftKings, BetMGM, Bet365)
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SharpClarke
