First Round March Madness Bets from Connor Allen

Mar 21, 2024

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Playing in bracket pools is awesome but betting on March Madness adds another layer of fun. Every year I do both and if you are looking for bracket advice, check out my free article where I highlight historical trends that can help you choose a winner.

Throughout the tournament, i’ll be releasing bets in our discord which is included in our betting subscription! Use code: “MM10” to get 10% off a year of everything on 4for4 including bets, projections, breakdowns, tools, Fantasy Football Rankings, and so much more!

I always cite domestic sportsbooks along with the odds, and how much i’m risking on each bet.

First-Round March Madness Bets

The first round of the tournament drew some interesting matchups. I have already released multiple plays and will continue to add more throughout the week and tournament!

Tennessee vs St Peters 1H U61 (-110 CZRS, -120 at FD fine at 61.5, -115 61 DK last option)

This is another matchup with an elite defense squaring off against a terrible offense in a game that could be slower. Tennessee is 3rd in adjusted defensive efficiency and St. Peter's is 306th offensively while also ranking 345th in tempo and 350th in effective field goal rate. This means they play slow, don't take good shots, and don't make them.

Meanwhile, St Peter's defense is not completely bad! They are 77th in adjusted defense and 21st in effective field goal rate allowed meaning they have forced opponents to take tough shots. If we don't adjust their defense for their opponents, their raw defense is 12th! If we get even a little bit of defense here from St Peters this game could be unbelievably low scoring. As I have mentioned in previous posts, 1H unders in the first round of games are hitting 59% of the time blindly since 2011 (H/T SGP/DaltonKates).

Risk 1.10 units to win 1 unit