Alvin Kamara is Still Fantasy Relevant in 2024

One of the most important tasks in fantasy football is figuring out if a player is past his prime or not. The only thing worse than missing out on drafting an elite player is finally drafting him the year everything falls apart — you never want to be the one caught holding the bag. In 2024, Saints running back Alvin Kamara is a prime example of this dilemma, and he is one of the most difficult players to assess in fantasy. Here’s a look at whether Kamara is worth drafting at his ADP of RB17 and 63rd overall.

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Alvin Kamara's 2023 Season in Review

Kamara had one of the strangest fantasy running back seasons that I can remember last year. He was suspended for the first three games of the season due to violating the NFL’s personal conduct policy but played in 13 of a possible 14 games after that. During that stretch, he was quite frankly awful on the ground, totaling just 694 yards on 180 carries and six total touchdowns. However, he was dominant as a pass-catcher, racking up 75 receptions, the second-most among all running backs behind only Breece Hall. Hilariously, Kamara’s 75 catches only went for 466 receiving yards as the majority of his catches were dump-offs from an injured Derek Carr. Altogether though, Kamara’s receiving work carried him to a half-PPR RB5 finish in fantasy points per game, and RB3 in full PPR.

Kamara’s lackluster rushing production is what makes him so confusing in fantasy. He ranked outside the top 40 in pretty much every notable running back metric last season — yards after contract, missed tackles forced, breakaway runs, elusiveness, etc. But, he was also third among running backs in yards per route run indicating that he is not completely washed as a whole. Kamara has also managed to stay quite healthy over the years, missing just 14 games in seven seasons.

Kamara in the Saints Offense

Kamara will enter the 2024 season as the Saints starting running back once again. He is backed up by veteran Jamaal Williams and second-year player Kendre Miller. Both Williams and Miller will likely be somewhat involved in the Saints offense this year, but I don’t anticipate either of them seriously challenging Kamara’s workload — Williams ran for a horrendous 2.9 yards per carry last season, and Miller still has holes in his game that he needs to patch up before becoming a true workhorse or third-down back.

Overall, I don’t anticipate the Saints to be anything awe-inspiring on offense this season. They ranked right around average in offensive EPA per play last year and have brought back essentially the same team, so their offensive outlook remains about the same. The Saints do benefit from playing in one of the weaker divisions in football and will likely be in the conversation to win the NFC South, but they are quite frankly one of the more boring teams in football this season.

Assessing Kamara’s Floor and Ceiling

I won’t sit here and pretend like Kamara is a super exciting draft pick this year. Long gone are the days of his electric, high touchdown outputs in the final years of the Drew Brees era. Instead, what Kamara offers is stability. You probably won’t feel compelled to watch any of his games, but you can go to sleep on Saturday nights knowing that Kamara will be good for double-digit fantasy points off sheer volume. Note that this high floor is only present in half-PPR and PPR — I wouldn’t consider Kamara at all if you are in a standard league because so much of his game relies on his pass-catching.

Kamara’s ceiling is probably similar to his performance last year, which he could certainly hit if he has another big reception total year. He has finished as a top-10 fantasy PPG running back in six of seven career seasons and has seen less than 75 targets just once. So, even if Kamara isn’t the same runner that he once was, his pass-catching work will continue to support his fantasy value in 2024.

Kamara’s current draft spot of RB17 feels like a little bit of a value. His pass-catching baseline and guaranteed volume put him clearly above the tier of bad-offense running backs going in the middle rounds, and I would probably prefer him to higher-upside but more inconsistent guys like Kenneth Walker or Isiah Pacheco. All in all, Kamara is a smart and logical pick this year and would be a great RB2 for your team in the fifth or sixth round.

The Bottom Line

• Kamara has been a beacon of consistency at the running back position for his entire career and is coming off an RB5 finish in fantasy points per game.
• Kamara has certainly lost a step when it comes to pure rushing ability, but he still remains one of the most elite pass-catching running backs in the NFL.
• Kamara’s role as the clear starting running back for the Saints gives him quite a high floor in fantasy. He should return value on his ADP simply off targets alone. However, Kamara has a lower ceiling than others because of his lack of explosiveness and the Saints’ mediocre offense.
• Overall, Kamara is a safe and sound pick at RB17. He probably won’t win you your league, but he will be a dependable weekly starter that you will not have to worry about in your lineup. He projects as a great complement to a higher-upside early-round running back on your fantasy teams this year in PPR formats.