Does a Healthier Javonte Williams Have RB1 Upside in 2024?
Javonte Williams had a promising rookie campaign after the Broncos took him 35th overall back in 2021 — 1,219 scrimmage yards and seven touchdowns to be exact — but a multi-ligament knee injury ended his 2022 season early and may have impacted his 2023 season as well. Now, he’s going in the ninth round of fantasy drafts behind guys like Zack Moss and Brian Robinson. Is he the hampered head of a committee in Denver or a potential breakout star? Let’s find out.
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Before the Injury
Williams was one of my favorite running back prospects of recent memory coming out of North Carolina in 2021. He had posted a monster 1,445 scrimmage yards and 22 touchdowns while sharing time with Michael Carter as a junior, and both his athletic profile and his tape suggested he had true RB1 upside at the next level. The Broncos seemed to agree, trading up in the second round to take him as the third back off the board (behind Najee Harris and Travis Etienne).
Williams validated Denver’s investment with a superb rookie season, finishing as the RB17 in fantasy with the 12th-most yards and 13th-most touches at the position. Notably, he snagged 43 receptions for 316 yards and three scores through the air, an encouraging progression of his college numbers. By hitting 900 yards rushing and 300 receiving as a rookie, Williams joined some pretty solid company: the other backs drafted top-40 to do so over the last 10 seasons are Ezekiel Elliott, Leonard Fournette, Saquon Barkley, Najee Harris, Bijan Robinson, and Jahmyr Gibbs.
Williams looked primed for another step forward at the start of 2022, opening the season with an 11-catch performance against the Seahawks and 19+ opportunities in each of the next two games. But then he tore both his ACL and LCL in Week 4 and missed the rest of the season.
All this occurred, by the way, with Pro-Bowl veteran Melvin Gordon earning significant work in the Denver backfield after the team paid him in the 2020 free agency period and extended him in 2022.
Opportunity Up, Efficiency Down
Early on in the 2023 offseason, we expected little from Williams prior to September given the timeline and significance of his injury. But he was on the field by training camp and even saw 12 snaps and seven touches in the preseason. It felt a little rushed to some, but by the time Week 1 rolled around, Williams was the clear-cut RB1 in Denver, shouldering roughly 45% of snaps and the majority of the running back touches.
Williams then suffered a hip flexor injury in Week 4, missing Week 5 and easing back into action in Week 6, before resuming the full starting role. From Week 7 on, he saw 205 touches — seventh-most in the league over that span — while playing 53% of the team’s offensive snaps.
Unfortunately, Williams was far less efficient than he had been as a rookie, and it drastically affected his fantasy value. The 23-year-old averaged just 3.6 yards per carry, 3.8 yards per touch, and 0.6 fantasy points per touch … all lower than his own career marks and the NFL’s league averages.
| Before | After | Dropoff % | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yards/Attempt | 4.4 | 3.6 | -18% |
| Yards After Contact/Attempt | 3.4 | 2.7 | -21% |
| Missed Tackles Forced/Attempt | 0.32 | 0.16 | -50% |
| Yards/Touch | 4.9 | 3.8 | -22% |
| Fantasy Points/Touch | 0.7 | 0.6 | -14% |
Williams also made my touchdown expectations article back in June after underperforming in that category last season. As I mentioned in that piece, Williams had eight carries from the literal 1-yard line in 2023 and scored just twice on those carries, while scoring exactly zero times on 264 opportunities from outside the 5-yard line (a historic disappointment).
The critical question is how much of Williams’ 2023 inefficiency can be attached to the highly condensed timeline between his injury and the start of the season … and I believe the answer offers a lot of hope for 2024.
Why Javonte Williams?
Towards the end of July, John Paulsen and I had NFL injury expert Matthew Betz of the Fantasy Footballers on The Most Accurate Podcast … and he had this to say about Williams.
We talked tons of relevant injuries with @TheFantasyPT on Monday's TMAP, but Betz's outlook on Javonte Williams might me have the most excited ...@4for4football | #BroncosCountry | @javontewill33 pic.twitter.com/JjMwccux2B
— Matt Okada (@MattOkada) July 24, 2024
Betz has studied 10 years of data on running backs coming off ACL injuries, and every running back in his sample has been more efficient in year two off the injury than they were in year one. If he’s indeed back to full speed in 2024, Williams is primed for a bounceback in efficiency that could spell RB1 upside if he maintains his 2023 workload.
And as far as that workload is concerned, there has been plenty of murmuring about Jaleel McLaughlin and fifth-round rookie Audric Estime so far this offseason, culminating in a questionable report that Williams could even be playing musical chairs with Samaje Perine for a roster spot. That rumor lasted less than a week before Broncos insider Benjamin Allbright debunked it as a myth.
In other Broncos news; the Javonte Williams obituaries were hilariously premature.
Took the 1st reps in every drill.
I think Perine has the toughest climb.— Benjamin Allbright (@AllbrightNFL) July 24, 2024
NFL Network’s James Palmer and Denver Sports 104.3’s Andrew Mason both reported early in camp that Williams has lost weight as head coach Sean Payton seeks the college-film version of the young back, with Mason adding that “Williams had the sharpest cuts and best burst he’s shown since the knee injury.”
Williams is now 21 months removed from that injury and is currently sitting at RB32 in ADP, behind a wealth of running backs with fewer projected touches and far less prospective talent. Payton and the Broncos offense will be relying heavily on the run and short-pass game with rookie QB Bo Nix as the presumptive starter, which could easily put Javonte in the conversation for 200+ carries and 50+ catches. All seven running backs to hit those marks last year finished top-20 in fantasy … as did every single other RB to do so in the last 10 seasons. Every possible arrow is pointing up for Williams, and I’m willing to invest heavily at his current ADP and confidently if it climbs another round or two in the coming weeks.
The Bottom Line
- Prior to his multi-ligament knee injury in 2022, Williams looked like one of the bright, young backs of the fantasy future, including an RB17 finish as a rookie.
- After the injury, Williams rushed back to action in 2023 and had an extremely inefficient year, while shouldering a top-10 workload. With another year to recover, the data suggests Williams will be much more explosive and effective in 2024.
- Early concerns over a muddied backfield in Denver are fading as training camp progresses, building confidence that Williams will be the lead back in this offense.
- With a heavily depressed ADP of RB32, Williams is a screaming value with perhaps the best chance to finish as an RB1 of anyone in the middle rounds.
