DraftKings Best Ball: Exploiting Running Back ADP

In DraftKings’ ever-growing best ball tournament options, running backs are beginning to slide down the boards. Through the first 36 picks (the first three rounds), only ten are RBs, with 23 of the selections allocated to the wide receiver position. This movement away from running backs isn’t unique to only DK best ball, but the site’s full PPR scoring and +3 bonus points for 100+ yard receiving games is depressing the value of typical “early-down” backs even further.

This surplus of options later in the draft doesn’t make RBs any less important to get right. Below, we will look at some ADP inefficiencies across the position to help you find some targets throughout the draft that could be slipping through the cracks or, contrarily, options that we should avoid.

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Running Backs to Avoid at ADP

Brian Robinson, Commanders

DraftKings ADP: RB35, 10.05

4for4 Full-PPR Ranking: RB35

In a scoring setting that benefits pass-catchers, the early-down plodder loses value. That’s precisely the case with Brian Robinson, who is coming off of DraftKings boards as an RB3 despite a multitude of red flags. His raw receiving stats (36-368-4 on 43 targets) weren’t necessarily terrible in ‘23, but they could represent something closer to his ceiling than his floor, considering the offensive overhaul this offseason.

The most glaring addition is new backfield-mate Austin Ekeler, who is coming off the least productive year out of his last five seasons. He “only” registered 69 targets while dealing with injuries, commanding a 13.7% share of the Chargers’ pass attempts, nearly double Robinson’s 7.1% in Washington. It wouldn’t be a surprise if that gap were nearly identical this season, though each share will probably be lower with Jayden Daniels at the helm.

Not only will the running backs see less work with Daniels taking off with the ball in his hands, but the rookie quarterback could handle a good bit of the goal-line work, further dampening Robinson’s ceiling outlook.

Najee Harris, Steelers

DraftKings ADP: RB26, 8.07

4for4 Full-PPR Ranking: RB34

The workload gap between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren shrank even further in 2023, with the former handling 289 opportunities (attempts + targets) and the latter accounting for 221. For fantasy purposes, the more critical aspect is Harris being relatively faded out of the receiving game, as he was targeted only 34 times after sitting at 147 through his first two seasons.

The offense will not be a 1v1 replication of last season, with Arthur Smith taking over as offensive coordinator, but it’s hard to imagine the team will decide to put the magic back in the bottle with Warren.

Not only did Warren do a far better job of earning targets, but he also made better use of his touches on a per-route and per-carry basis. Harris had a good year on the ground in his own right, but if anything, the team could shift this to more of a 50/50 split in the run game, similar to how Smith used Bijan Robinson (214 carries) and Tyler Allgeier (186 carries) last year.

There’s a non-zero chance Warren simply out-produces Harris in ‘24, making the latter’s RB26 ADP far too high.

Joe Mixon, Texans

DraftKings ADP: RB15, 5.08

4for4 Full-PPR Ranking: RB24

Joe Mixon has been chugging along as an inefficient, touchdown-dependent fantasy option for most of the last half-decade, but it’s been paying off regardless. Over the last three seasons, Mixon has the second-most touchdowns (37) of any other running back, topping notable names like Christian McCaffrey (36), Derrick Henry (35), and Jonathan Taylor (32). In addition to playing on one of the most explosive offenses in football, he has been aided by fully healthy seasons, missing only four games in that span.

The veteran now finds himself on another explosive offense that needs severe RB help after finishing 2023 ranked 26th in explosive rush rate (3.6%) and 31st in success rate on zone runs (40.2%). The issue is, Mixon might not present a perfect solution at this point in his career. In his seventh NFL season, he finished 36th out of 49 qualifiers in explosive rush rate (3.1%) and 38th in yards per carry (3.64) in zone concepts.

Mixon has definitely lost a step in the run game, but his consistent presence as a receiver has long enabled him to overcome that, even when sharing the field with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. But the Houston receiving group runs even deeper. He will need to fight with Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, and Tank Dell, with depth pieces like Noah Brown and Dalton Schultz able to carry the water if one of the Main 3 misses time.

Running Backs to Target at ADP

Jonathon Brooks, Panthers

DraftKings ADP: RB28, 8.12

4for4 Full-PPR Ranking: RB17

Rostering rookie Jonathon Brooks could be a headache for typical redraft leagues through much of the start of the season, but that’s not something we need to worry about in best ball leagues, where the second half of the year is much more critical. All reports point toward Brooks participating with the team through July training camp, but it remains to be seen if we catch him in the preseason, which puts his Week 1 availability in the air.

Nevertheless, once Brooks gets up to speed, he should have a clear road to the undoubted No. 1 option, even if we do have to wait until October. Technically, Brooks sits behind veteran options Miles Sanders and Chuba Hubbard on the depth chart, but it’s hard to imagine that will be an issue once the rookie is in pads. After all, the team traded up in the second round to grab him.

Not only does this new regime have no ties to Hubbard, but they also allowed Sanders to be completely phased out of the offense by season’s end. He had 15 total carries in his final four appearances, finishing 2023 among the league’s worst in both yards per carry (3.3) and yards after contact (2.65).

The Panthers finished 31st in scoring offense and dead last in yardage in ‘23, but the team did what it could to identify the issue. They added Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis to the middle of the o-line, along with Diontae Johnson and first-round selection Xavier Legette to the wide receiver room.

In an improved offensive environment, if Brooks really is ready for a full workload during Opening Weekend, we should just take that as an added bonus to his value.

Zack Moss, Bengals

DraftKings ADP: RB25, 8.06

4for4 Full-PPR Ranking: RB19

Zack Moss is the perfect consolation prize for drafters (like myself) who would prefer to take our stabs at Joe Mixon only when he falls past ADP. All signs point toward Moss taking over the Mixon role with the Bengals, with only fifth-round 2023 NFL Draft selection Chase Brown in town to get in his way.

Last season, with Mixon continually proving inefficient on the ground, Brown only accounted for 44 rush attempts while spending far more time on special teams (160 snaps) than with the offense (93 snaps). He was only allotted double-digit opportunities in three games as a rookie, with his most extensive involvement (11 attempts, two targets) coming in a Week 18 game in which Mixon sat the entirety of the 4th quarter in what was at the time a 31-0 lead.

As mentioned in John Paulsen’s draft note inside the RB rankings, Moss averaged 20.9 touches for 94 yards in the eight games last season in which he played at least half of the snaps with the Colts. Much of that production came on the ground, specifically out of shotgun formations, where he earned the third-most yards (746) across the entire position. He now joins a Bengals team that had the third-highest rate of runs out of shotgun (71.7%) and the third-highest percentage of their rushing yards out of the formation (75.7%).

Kyren Williams, Rams

DraftKings ADP: RB9, 2.11

4for4 Full-PPR Ranking: RB4

While we would certainly prefer a running back not to have a “foot issue” pop up in Spring, Kyren Williams has now dropped to the end of the second round on DraftKings after floating around the 1/2 turn across all platforms before the news. There’s also the more obvious issue of the team drafting Blake Corum with the 83rd overall pick. Color me naive, but there’s still plenty of value in taking him as a locked-in top-10 option.

Williams finished the 2023 season as the RB2 in PPR points per game (21.3) while posting only the 18th-ranked target share (10.7%) during his 12 active games. There’s still plenty of meat on the bone there, particularly with tight end Tyler Higbee slated to miss a huge hunk of time following his torn ACL and MCL back in January. A slight boost in passing-game work should help alleviate some of the usage he would lose to Corum between the '20s.

Williams scored 20+ PPR points in 7/12 games last year, including four of his final six games. In that late-season sample size, he never fell below 14.3 points. That’s the type of high-floor/high-ceiling production we should be looking for in the second round.

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