Fantasy Football Debate: Breece Hall vs. Bijan Robinson

Breece Hall and Bijan Robinson are both being drafted in the first round across all fantasy football sites, giving managers a tough decision between two solid backs. In this debate, Neil Dutton goes to bat for Hall while Ryan Kirksey takes the side of Robinson.

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The Case for Breece Hall

Neil: If Breece Hall had been fully fit to start the 2023 season, and fully unleashed from the very start of the campaign, Christian McCaffrey would have been looking over his shoulder in the race to be fantasy football's RB1. That's how good Hall was in a terrible offensive situation and a stark reminder of just how good he could be in 2024 with a stable quarterback situation to support him.

From Week 5 onwards last season, Hall averaged 14.7 rush attempts and 60.3 per game, commanding 6.5 targets and racking up 42.2 receiving yards on his way to 17.3 Half PPR points. If he'd carried on that pace for all 17 games, you'd be looking at a 360 opportunity season with 294.1 Half PPR points, good for the RB2 on the season. And he did that on a team that finished 31st in total yards and 30th in passing yards, despite attempting the 11th most passes. In that dung heap, a beautiful rose was able to grow.

Everyone knows that Aaron Rodgers is in his 40s and coming off a serious injury. But we also know that even a hobbled Rodgers is an upgrade on anything the Jets had behind center last season and that the running backs in Green Bay were able to do quite nicely for themselves in fantasy terms when Rodgers was playing over the last few years. This is especially true with their passing work, with Packers backs averaging 6.9 targets per game between 2019 and 2022. In that time, Rodgers was able to form efficient partnerships with Jamaal Williams (7.61 adjusted yards per attempt when targeting him), Aaron Jones (7.16), and even A.J. Dillon (6.74). The pass catchers for the Jets behind Garrett Wilson, who is a stud, are not awe-inspiring, and there is every possibility that Hall could be the second-best option in the passing game for the Jets in 2024.

Hall does not have serious competition for touches in the backfield, either. His primary backup looks set to be Braelon Allen, a 2024 fourth-round rookie. Backup would seem to be the ideal role for Allen, as his college profile does not suggest he's going to compete with Hall for receiving work. Quite simply, if Hall is healthy, he'll be alongside Rodgers in the backfield for all the crucial offensive snaps in 2024.

It should go without saying that Bijan Robinson is an incredible talent and will, in all likelihood, make his push for the overall RB1 spot in 2024. But while he was able to show off his receiving skills as a rookie in 2023, he has at least two serious contenders ahead of him on the target totem pole in Drake London and Kyle Pitts. Darnell Mooney is also no slouch, and while he is not likely to be a fantasy star himself, he could be just annoying enough to rob Robinson of a significant number of targets.

Robinson also has something that Hall does not —namely, a known quantity alongside him in the running back room. Tyler Allgeier is not in Robinson's class as a player, but he has shown he can play at the NFL level, with a 1,000-yard season on his resume (which Robinson does not, incidentally). Allgeier is good enough to earn a role for himself on the Falcons' offense, while not offering much fantasy appeal for himself, that could cap the ceiling of Robinson.

I would never feel insulted if my fantasy team ended up with either of these backs on it. But if I am sitting on the 1.04 this August, and both of these players are staring back at me, Hall will be my choice.

The Case for Bijan Robinson

Ryan: The choice between Bijan Robinson and Breece Hall is the first major decision fantasy footballers have to make in drafts this season. Christian McCaffrey, CeeDee Lamb, and Tyreek Hill are all consensus top-three picks in every major fantasy platform, but with picks four or five in a draft, Bijan Robinson versus Breece Hall is an intriguing debate. These two players are right next to each other in literally every major fantasy platform ADP (Yahoo, Underdog, ESPN, FFPC, etc.) There is truly no “wrong choice” in the battle between Robinson and Hall as both are elite, high-volume projected running backs. But count me on the side of Bijan Robinson when considering who to take in half-PPR formats in 2024.

Drafted eighth overall in the 2023 NFL Draft, the University of Texas product was projected for a massive rookie season. However, he fell into the clutches of fantasy football archnemesis Arthur Smith and played just 68% of the offensive snaps and saw just 52.5% of the opportunity share despite the fact that the Falcons were fourth in the league in run plays per game (30.7) and sixth in total running back targets (124).

Bijan Robinson still did have a successful season by fantasy standards, especially for a rookie. He was ninth in total fantasy points in half-PPR formats for running backs, but somehow just 17th in points per game (12.8). The primary concern amongst fantasy managers is that there was a sense that there could have been so much more. The receiving game was not the issue for Robinson. His 86 targets were tied for second among running backs and his target share (17.2%) was third. Robinson’s issues, and what will seemingly improve dramatically in 2024, was his volume in the run game and around the goal line.

Robinson’s 213 carries were just 17th among all running backs in 2023. Tyler Allgeier, who is certainly a capable back, grabbed 186 carries (and 23 targets) despite only rushing for 3.7 rushing yards per attempt. Arthur Smith was seemingly devoted to close to a true time-share at the position, and he certainly preferred Allgeier when the Falcons were in scoring range, at least until that tide shifted late in the season.

Overall, Robinson’s 31 total red zone touches (23 rush, eight receptions) in 2023 ranked 32nd among running backs. That’s horrific considering Robinson’s talent and elusiveness with the ball. The red zone usage trend was clearly in Allgeier’s favor for the first 10 weeks of the season, but after the Falcons’ Week 11 bye, the coaching staff came to their senses and started feeding Robinson the ball when and where it mattered most. From Weeks 1-10, Tyler Allgeier touched the ball 30 times in the red zone compared to just 17 for Robinson. Beginning in Week 12, it flipped. Robinson had 17 red zone touches and Allgeier had just six.

Combine that continued red zone usage with Robinson’s efficiency metrics, and this is someone who could look a lot like a running back like Christian McCaffrey if given more rushing work in 2024. Robinson was ninth in yards per touch, seventh in evaded tackles, and ninth in yards per reception at the position (with at least 230 targets). There was truly no need for Arthur Smith to limit his time on the field to 68% of snaps, and new head coach Raheem Morris clearly knows that is the case. The 2024 season is when Bijan Robinson’s workload moves into elite territory.

Morris has already stated in OTAs and training camp that he plans to “get the ball to Bijan as much as (we) can and as many ideal situations that you possibly can.” Morris also said all the right things like “you don’t want to limit the things that he can do,” which could be seen as a subtle jab at the way he was used in 2023. In the same sentence, Morris compared Robinson to Christian McCaffrey in his abilities and his potential role. If Robinson even comes close to the workload McCaffrey gets with San Francisco, there is no doubt Robinson can challenge for the overall RB1 in 2024.