Fantasy Football Debate: Dalton Kincaid vs. Mark Andrews

A pair of elite tight ends are being drafted back-to-back-positionally according to our powerful Multi-Site ADP tool. In this debate, Justin Edwards argues for Mark Andrews (TE4) while Neil Dutton pounds the table for Dalton Kincaid (TE5).

Read other player-specific analysis from the 4for4 staff: Player Profiles | TE Rankings | 7 Tight End SOS Beneficiaries & Ideal Late-Round Pairings

The Case for Mark Andrews

Justin: My good internet friend, long-time colleague, and owner of a very sharp fantasy football mind, Neil Dutton, is right about many things. But in the case of Dalton Kincaid v. Mark Andrews, I feel as though the Kincaid side has fallen into the recency bias bucket, while we have to give some credit to the wily veteran and what he has accomplished over his fantastic career.

Kincaid had a more than serviceable rookie season in 2023 and borders on the cusp of calling it outright impressive. In the team’s most important games last season (Week 17 through the Divisional Round), the tight end became an integral part of the offense, averaging 6.5 targets, 4.8 receptions, and 69 yards per game. That 20.2% target share was the second-highest for the Bills, behind only Stefon Diggs, who is no longer on the team.

The departure of a team’s No. 1 option—and possibly No. 2, depending on what you think of Gabe Davis—is cause to believe the share will trickle down, and while I agree, I don’t think many will argue that Diggs saw a moderate decline in his game in his Age 30 season.

This is not a Dawson Knox versus Isaiah Likely debate (lucky for you), but when looking at how Kincaid/Andrews performed when sharing the load with their respective TE2 healthy, it seems obvious who can overcome.

Pulling up 4for4’s Market Share Splits App, Kincaid played in 11 regular season games in which Knox accrued at least 10 snaps. His counting stats averaged out to a 3.8-35.6-0.0 stat line on 4.9 targets, a stark contrast to the 6.2-56.2-0.4 line when the veteran was off the field. Using those same perimeters for the Ravens tandem, Andrews has played 20 games with Likely notching at least 10 snaps. His averages are 5.1-59.6-0.5 on 7.3 targets, or 11.5 half-PPR fantasy points per game, a mark that still would have equated to the TE1 if extrapolated over 17 games.

Can either or both of their stat lines regress toward the mean? That’s very possible. Kincaid can absolutely absorb more of the load regardless of Knox’s health —I would bet a sizable amount that he will, actually— and Likely could start to box out an aging Andrews a little more in his third professional year.

What I believe insulates Andrews’ opportunity to threaten the overall TE1 spot for the first time since 2021 is the Todd Monken offense, which delivered on its promise of a more pass-centric play style. In Year 1, Lamar Jackson dropped back a career-high 558 times, attempting 457 passes, which is more in line with the league average. He’s still going to take off with the ball far above league average, but Josh Allen does much of the same, critically, at the goal line.

As the coaching staff has pulled back on calling Jackson’s number near the end zone, Ravens tight ends have subsequently ranked fourth, second, and tenth in targets within the opponent’s 10-yard line over the last three seasons.

As Neil points out, both Kincaid and Andrews are destined to have consistent, fantasy-worthy performances in 2024, and make great clicks in the fourth or fifth rounds (depending on fantasy platform). The recent injuries and far more wear and tear on Andrews’ tires could end up biting me, but I love betting on him for a return to form in Baltimore.

The Case for Dalton Kincaid

Neil: I have to preface my stance here with what I am sure all rational fantasy managers will already know. That, in speaking for Dalton Kincaid in this matter, it means I hate Mark Andrews and never want to see him on any of my fantasy rosters ever again. I jest, of course. Andrews has long been a favorite player of mine, and I hope he still has years of fantasy-relevant production ahead of him. But there are reasons why, in 2024, I want Dalton Kincaid on my roster more than Andrews.

The biggest one is, of course, opportunity. The main driver behind fantasy production is opportunity. Kincaid made the most of his in his 2023 rookie season, finishing with the eighth most targets at the tight end position with 91, the seventh most receptions (73), and the 10th most receiving yards (673). We would be raving about these numbers if it wasn't for the first-year form of Sam LaPorta. Indeed, if Dawson Knox had not played at all in 2023, we would have something really special to talk about. If we were to project out Kincaid's production over the season based on what it was like whenever Knox missed time, we'd have a 125 target, 105 reception, 955-yard season on our hands, with enough Half PPR points to land a mere 15 points behind LaPorta.

Now, as we know, Knox is still on the roster, offering a somewhat frustrating barrier to Kincaid assuming full command of the tight end receiving work in Buffalo. But while he remains, 317 targets from last season are no longer around, with this number the second most vacated targets in the league from 2023. That equates to 54.7% of the targets from a year ago. The Bills did lean more run-heavy following Joe Brady's promotion to the offensive coordinator role in 2023, I do acknowledge. From Week 11 onwards, the Bills had 37.4 rush attempts per game as opposed to 26.1 in the first ten weeks of the season. But the fact of the matter is that they still attempted 34 passes per game. Someone has to catch them, and with an untried and most underwhelming cast of characters at the wide receiver spot, Kincaid should see a boatload of targets.

For his part, Andrews remains a key cog on the Ravens offense and a favored target of Lamar Jackson. But Andrews has also seen his receiving yards per game drop in each of the last two seasons, as well as his receptions per game. He has missed nine games the last two seasons, and while Zay Flowers appears to be a star at the wide receiver spot for the Ravens, there is also the not-insignificant presence of Isaiah Likely, who has filled in admirably for Andrews and probably warrants more opportunities himself even with Andrews on the field. The Ravens' offensive line situation is also not great, with the unit ranking 21st in our rankings (although the Bills are not sitting much prettier up at 15), and this may require more blocking work from the Ravens' tight ends than they would like. I'm not willing to write off Andrews completely, but I have to say I find the Kincaid range of outcomes a lot easier to swallow than the Andrews ones this season.