FFPC Main Event Review: $2000 Fantasy Football Draft
Every year, my favorite fantasy football leagues to play in are at FFPC. I know you almost certainly think I’m biased because we have a partnership with them but that wasn’t always the case. I have been in the FFPC streets long before we were in business. The competitive, tight-end premium scoring with massive top-end prizes ($1M to first), and multiple price points make FFPC leagues a ton of fun with a great sweat.
To briefly explain the FFPC Main Event. It's a $2,000 entry. Everyone drafts in a league with 12 total teams. In Weeks 1-12, you play against all of the teams in your league. Weeks 13 and 14 are the “league playoffs.” The top-4 teams make the playoffs and play in the semi-finals and finals. Then from there, the two best teams qualify for the “championship rounds.” This is where the big money is. The best two teams from every league from the entire contest get thrown into that pool for the championship rounds. The top-scoring teams from Weeks 15-17 in the championship rounds can win up to $1M. You can find all of the rules, prizes, and more here.
Related: Understanding TE Value in TE-Premium FFPC Leagues
To kick off FFPC Draft season, John Paulsen and I decided to split a Main Event ($2,000 entry) team. With a 2-hour draft clock, things got moving really fast and the draft won't take more than a week. Drafting a team with someone always brings some “spirited” debates. Paulsen has done all of our projections for 10+ years at 4for4 and is one of the best in the business at stat-level projections but we certainly don’t agree on everything! The goal of this article will be to gain some insight into how we evaluate players, situations, and navigate a high-stakes fantasy draft for this upcoming season.
1st Round (1.09)
Selection: Justin Jefferson
I’m admittedly not as big of a fan of Jefferson in the early-mid first round but at 1.09, I think it’s a solid value. The concern is that he has reasonable target competition with significantly worse QB play. To play devil's advocate, Nick Mullens (and Justin Jefferson) produced big numbers last season when Kirk Cousins went down. T.J. Hockenson is likely to miss half the season and Jordan Addison is facing a potential multi-game suspension. Jefferson has an unforeseen target ceiling this season. With all of the big running backs off the board, we opted for Jefferson.
2nd Round (2.04)
Selection: Marvin Harrison Jr.
This was between Jonathan Taylor, Drake London, and Davante Adams for us. Marvin Harrison in the second round seems expensive for anyone logging in for the first time all offseason but 16th overall is his aggregate ADP. He is arguably the best wide receiver prospect we have seen in a while, playing with a solid QB in Arizona in Kyler Murray with just Trey McBride as target competition. Harrison is a rock-solid WR1 as a rookie.
3rd Round (3.09)
Selection: Isiah Pacheco
This is my 4th year of writing FFPC draft reviews and there seems to be a common theme. Every year we wind up having to make a pick at night on the weekend and I am out consuming some adult beverages. In years past it has led to several mishaps, accidental picks, or one person on the team deciding while I’m out and about.
With that in mind, this was one of those situations. I truthfully didn't expect the draft to move this fast otherwise we would have discussed things beforehand. JP was probably having a lovely Saturday night, maybe enjoying a glass of wine and watching some TV or a movie with his wife and kids. I was drinking Sake out of a squirt gun at a Hibachi restaurant. We were on the clock and I wasn’t at my best. Paulsen made the executive decision to pick Pacheco, a player I likely would not have chosen in this instance with so many strong wideouts still left on the board (Nabers, Aiyuk, Deebo, Mike Evans, Devonta Smith, DK Metcalf).
I woke up and DMed Paulsen saying, “We took Pacheco in the 3rd??? Sweet Jesus.”
In hindsight, I like how the build turned out for our team. Tons of good receivers fell while running backs were pushed up the board.
Pacheco also offers a lot of upside this season at his RB11 pricetag. Paulsen said it best, “Isiah Pacheco finished as the fantasy RB13 in 14 games played. He had the 12th-highest per-game average. In four postseason games, he averaged 23.3 touches for 93 yards and 1.5 touchdowns, which is high-end RB1 production. He was also regularly playing 70% or more of the snaps in the playoffs. The Chiefs will probably limit his usage somewhat during the regular season, but if that playoff workload is a preview of his 2024 workload, then he has upside from his RB12 ADP. He’s a rock-solid low-end RB1.”
The Chiefs also lost Jerick Mckinnon in the offseason who took a bunch of pass-catching work. If he even takes any of that instead of CEH or Deneric Prince, Pacheco has a legitimate top-5 RB upside and a strong floor.
4th Round (4.04)
Selection: George Kittle
Since FFPC is tight end premium, tight ends get pushed up the board. While in a vacuum we liked some of the other wideouts on the board better, Kittle was the last player in a tier for us. He is also the last player Paulsen has projected for more than 200 points in tight-end premium scoring this year. From a macro perspective, pairing a reliable TE1 with a few darts down the board is a strategy we have successfully employed in years past. You play a dangerous game in FFPC if you play chicken with the tight end position since the top-end players outscore the bottom TE1s by so much.
5th Round (5.09)
Selection: Patrick Mahomes
Patrick Mahomes’ ADP is 40th in FFPC leagues and 33rd in aggregate. We got him at 57th overall here. Quarterbacks fell as a whole which pushed Mahomes down in this draft. Despite missing out on Travis Kelce, we felt like we could stack at least one Chiefs' pass-catcher later in the draft (Rashee Rice, Hollywood Brown, or Xavier Worthy). There has also been constant talk about the Chiefs wanting to push the ball downfield even more this year which will unlock Mahomes’ upside again after a relatively disappointing 2023. Buy the dip on the Chiefs offense and Mahomes.
6th Round (6.04)
Selection: Tank Dell
Nico Collins and Tank Dell played 60%+ of the snaps together in 7 games last season.
Targets
Nico: 52
Tank: 53
Receptions
Nico: 37
Tank: 35
Yards
Nico: 601
Tank: 571
Touchdowns
Nico: 5
Tank: 6
1/2 PPR Fantasy Points
Nico: 108.6
Tank: 110.6
Underdog ADP
Nico: WR12, 17.2… pic.twitter.com/pnU4fyXJ3I— Connor Allen (@ConnorAllenNFL) July 24, 2024
Tank Dell is a huge value in the sixth compared to Nico Collins in the third and Stefon Diggs in the fourth. Paulsen had Tank as his highest projected player on the board as well. As our WR3, we felt very comfortable with Tank.
7th Round (7.09)
Selection: Keenan Allen
This was another surprise for us as Keenan Allen goes 54th overall on Underdog and is routinely in the mid-60s or early 70s on all other platforms. We got him 81st overall here at WR40. He may be older but has been an absolute stud when healthy. 97+ receptions in six of the last seven years and still averaged over 11 yards per reception last year. He now enters a unique situation. Caleb Williams should immediately be an above-average QB with immense potential for more if things click. D.J. Moore is a great weapon that can be used outside and ninth-overall pick Rome Odunze figures to draw some attention as well. Keenan almost certainly won’t see the target volume he was used to with the Chargers, but he will likely dominate slot snaps and be a frequent chain-moving target. He is the most polished route-runner in the group and per Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception, was one of the best route runners on slants (87.3% open rate), flats (93.1%), and curls (83.3%). He’ll never be the alpha WR1 in the Bears offense but should still be incredibly productive and efficient out of the slot.
8th Round (8.04)
Selection: Raheem Mostert
This was a tough pick for us. I bent the knee to Paulsen here because he really likes Raheem Mostert. He believes that even if Mostert doesn’t score as many touchdowns (scored 18 last year), and Achane plays more, Mostert should still be uber-efficient and more than return value here. Mike McDaniel also came out and said they still view Mostert as the lead back in the room. I worry about Mostert’s age and Achane taking on a larger workload than expected. Despite that, it’s still a value at RB26.
I wanted one of Najee Harris or Jaylen Warren, but Paulsen doesn’t like Najee and despises Arthur Smith. When Najee rushes for 1400 yards and 12 touchdowns on the 9-8 Steelers, I will have my “gotcha.” They have one of the best run-blocking OL’s in the league and Najee is fully healthy after struggling with foot injuries last year. Jaylen Warren also will get his and has soaked up a lot of the pass-catching work. I like a ton of running backs in this tier as solid RB2s with upside so I wasn’t mad about Mostert, I’m just sad that my colleague won’t see the light on Arthur Smith’s 1950s-style football until it’s too late.
9th round (9.09)
Selection: Xavier Worthy
We really didn’t think Worthy would make it to pick 105 but we were able to hang on and stack Patrick Mahomes with one of his pass-catchers. Reports from training camp have been stellar and there are multiple paths for Worthy to become a reliable fantasy producer with upside. Travis Kelce turns 35 in October, Rashee Rice is facing some type of lengthy suspension likely at some point late this season, and Hollywood Brown hasn’t been a pillar of health. Since Worthy is going so late, there is minimal risk (don’t have to start him right away) but a ton of upside if any of the players penciled in ahead of him aren’t on the field or Worthy is just awesome. Considering we already drafted Mahomes, this was an easy pick for us.
10th round (10.04)
Selection: Gus Edwards
I had to sell Paulsen here on Gus. First off, I am very much a non-believer in J.K. Dobbins. The history of running backs returning and playing well after an Achilles tear in their first season is non-existent.
Running Backs Post Achilles Tear Since 2015
- JK Dobbins: ???
- Cam Akers: RB2+ in 5-of-22 games available. Tore other Achilles in 2023.
- James Robinson: 4.6 YPC before Achilles - >3.9 YPC after. Played in 12 games.
- Marlon Mack: 48 carries in 3 years after original tear,…— Connor Allen (@ConnorAllenNFL) July 29, 2024
Edwards’ only other competition is 6th-round rookie Kimani Vidal. The Chargers also figure to go run-heavy with Greg Roman at OC and Jim Harbaugh calling the shots and drafting OT Joe Alt over Malik Nabers or Rome Odunze. Edwards has 12-15 per-game carry upside, should be efficient, and has insane touchdown upside in this offense. As our RB3, I am a fan.
11th Round (11.09)
Selection: Brian Thomas
Even with five wideouts on the squad, we couldn't pass up on Brian Thomas Jr. The Jaguars drafted Thomas in the middle of the first round after he crushed at the NFL Scouting Combine. With Calvin Ridley and Gabe Davis gone, I expect Thomas to be a full-time player from the get-go. It may take him a few weeks to find his footing but if he and Lawrence are clicking, Thomas will have some monster games down the stretch.
12th Round (11.09)
Selection: Ray Davis
At this point in the draft, our goal was to stack as many running backs with contingent upside. This means if something happens to the starter, this player would find himself with a significant role immediately. For example, if James Cook is injured, Ray Davis is likely a fringe fantasy RB2/3 with Latavius Murray sprinkling in a bit. So even with some solid wideouts on the board who will certainly outscore Davis barring an injury, they won't ever see our lineup given our wide receiver-heavy build so far. Whereas with our running back group, we need as much hypothetical upside as possible and hope to strike gold on an RB2/3. That was essentially our motto for the rest of the draft after taking Thomas and I feel good about the process even if none of them wind up panning out.
13th Round (11.09)
Selection: Braelon Allen
Allen fits everything I just talked about. He plays in a good offense with just Breece Hall in front of him. If Hall were to get injured, Allen would find himself with an incredibly valuable role.
14th Round (11.09)
Selection: Audric Estime
We have heard that Estime, Jaleel Mclaughlin, and Javonte Williams all look great so at this point it's anyone's guess who will see work.
15th Round (11.09)
Selection: Juwan Johnson
Paulsen really didn't want another tight end but based on the principles of "value based drafting," Tight ends are very flex-viable. We are also getting a discount on Johnson who was dealing with some offseason injuries but is already practicing again. With minimal target competition and a new scheme, Johnson could be a legitimate TE1 when fully healthy.
16th Round (11.09)
Selection: Greg Dulcich
Training camp reports have been really strong on Greg Dulcich who may finally be coming into his own in his third season.
17th Round (11.09)
Selection: Deneric Prince
Reports out of camp are that Deneric Prince is taking some of the passing work, not Clyde Edwards-Helaire. I normally don't like to "handcuff" in large field tournaments but he seemed like the best pick on the board all things considered.
18th Round (11.09)
Selection: Cleveland D/ST
After Week 1 against Dallas, they play the Jaguars, Giants, Raiders, and Commanders. They will have multiple big games in that span.
19th Round (11.09)
Selection: Jason Sanders
Draft a kicker on a high-scoring team and don't think too much more about it.
20th Round (11.09)
Selection: Tank Bigsby
Even as we head into the final rounds, Paulsen is still clowning me for not agreeing with his Isaih Pacheco selection during my Sake-fueled blitzkrieg. As it relates to Tank Bigsby, we legitimately had him in our queue for 4+ rounds but didn't really want him. The Jaguars likely don't want to give Etienne as much work as they did but Bigsby was so unbelievably bad last year they couldn't give him any work. Maybe that changes this year and in the 20th round, the price is right!
Imagine your name is @ConnorAllenNFL and you’re upset about your draft partner nabbing Pacheco in the late third round while you’re M.I.A on a PBR/sake bender in the karaoke bars of Chicago. https://t.co/CsZGxaoQxf
— John Paulsen (@4for4_John) August 2, 2024
