Week 1 DraftKings & FanDuel Showdown Plays: Friday Night NFL DFS

Welcome to the special Friday Night Football version of the single-game breakdown, where the Green Bay Packers will take on the Philadelphia Eagles in an international spectacle from Sao Paolo, Brazil. Both teams enter this matchup with fresh starts and extremely high expectations. The Eagles, having hired new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, will unveil a more spread-out, fast-paced offense, featuring their prized free-agent addition, running back Saquon Barkley. The Packers, coming off an impressive run to last year’s divisional round with first-year starter Jordan Love, have retained their offensive core and will lead an offense filled with versatile weapons, including a new star running back of their own. Both teams are eager to set the tone for the new season on this grand stage. Let’s dig into the way to approach this from a single-game DFS perspective.

Game Environment

Packers (23.5) @ Eagles (-2, 25.5); Over/Under 49

Philadelphia’s offensive identity is undergoing a major shift after a disappointing end to 2023, in which they struggled to get consistent play from either of their passing or rushing attacks. Kellen Moore’s spread-out scheme aims to unlock the full potential of Jalen Hurts and his elite receiving corps of A.J. Brown and DeVont Smith, while Saquon Barkley adds a dynamic element in the backfield that can open up play-action opportunities. The Eagles are modest favorites in this contest, with an implied team total of 25.5 points, and we should expect a more aggressive approach in general compared to last season. The offense is expected to be less reliant on Hurts’ legs, but we could still see him mix in red-zone rushes to maximize his scoring output. The “tush-push” isn’t going entirely away.

The Packers, meanwhile, enter this game with an implied total of 23.5 points, but they’re no strangers to offensive fireworks themselves. Jordan Love enters 2024 coming off a late-season surge, and Green Bay’s “positionless receiver” approach—where multiple wideouts and tight ends can play different roles on different plays—will keep the Eagles' defense guessing. The main question is how Green Bay will spell Jacobs' unproven running back depth chart behind their workhorse. It’s possible the Packers simply lean on Jacobs heavily in this matchup, as their young backs, Emmanuel Wilson and Marshawn Lloyd, are still working their way into form. Love’s efficiency as a passer, especially down the stretch last season, suggests that Green Bay should focus on finding creative ways to attack Philadelphia’s secondary through the air.

Quarterback Analysis

Jalen Hurts enters 2024 with expectations sky-high, not only due to his individual talent but also because of the offensive shift under a new offensive coordinator. Last season, Hurts was among the league’s most aggressive passers, ranking third in air yards per attempt (8.7) and consistently testing defenses with a top-five ranking in passes of 20 yards or more. However, his efficiency was mixed on those deep passes, as he ranked below the league average in true completion percentage. Moore’s system is designed to elevate this aspect of Hurts’ game by creating more intermediate windows and relying on playmakers like A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith to produce yards after the catch. Hurts' top-10 finish in both EPA per play and QBR last season underlines his high floor, which is buoyed by his rushing prowess, but if he can improve his true passer rating and become more efficient as a passer, his ceiling could reach new heights. With Saquon Barkley in the fold, Hurts should also see improved play-action windows. Options plays and play-action will be a massive part of Philadelphia’s offensive attack.

On the other side, Jordan Love emerged as one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the league by season’s end last year, and has lofty expectations himself heading into 2024. Last year, Love quietly finished 10th in adjusted yards per attempt and averaged the 5th-most fantasy points per game at the position. Much of Love’s success can be attributed to the Packers’ creative offensive scheme, which emphasizes positional flexibility. This allows Love to find mismatches and exploit them, as he did over the final stretch of the season. In his last six games of 2023, including the playoffs, Love averaged over 7.5 yards per attempt in five of them, including a game of 13.0 yards per attempt in a surprise beatdown of the heavily favored Cowboys in the Wild Card Round. Green Bay’s offensive success will hinge on Love’s continued development as a passer, and in this matchup, he’ll look to take advantage of Philadelphia’s secondary, which was vulnerable at times to big plays last season.

Core Plays and Auxiliary Options

Obvious Captain Plays: QB Jalen Hurts, WR A.J. Brown, QB Jordan Love, RB Saquon Barkley

WR DeVonta Smith

Capable of earning more opportunity than A.J. Brown on any given night, Smith typically roasts teams’ 2nd cornerbacks and had eight or more targets in six of the team’s last nine games. Expect Smith to be used more creatively within Kellen Moore’s offense, operating as both a capable slot receiver and a deep-threat out wide.

RB Josh Jacobs

Jacobs is in line to receive as much work as he can handle within a Packers’ backfield that has almost no experience behind him. Jacobs, who had a down year from an efficiency perspective, and has never been much of a pass catcher (he has zero receiving touchdowns in his career), likely gets more touches than any other player on the slate. Usually, this type of volume comes with massive ownership as well, but that’s not expected tonight, as there are a plethora of other star players to choose from.

WR Romeo Doubs

It’s going to be a game of whac-a-mole all season, trying to hammer the correct Captain wideout for the Packers. My vote here is Romeo Doubs, who had six targets in each of the Packers’ final two playoff games, far outpacing Jayden Reed and Christian Watson. While both Reed and Watson are fine plays in tournaments, I’m looking to take a stand and be overweight compared to the field on 1-2 of these receivers when multi-entering tournaments.

Build Strategies

Shootout in Sao Paolo

The Eagles look unstoppable on offense, with Hurts connecting for big-plays with his star receivers, and Saquon Barkley flashing his playmaking ability out of the backfield. The Packers, forced to keep pace, open up their offense, allowing Jordan Love to make plays all over the field. In this scenario, grab at least three of the Eagles’ big four and one of Love’s primary targets (or Jacobs), filling the rest of the roster with auxiliary weaponry and value plays.

Stack-attack

Both teams find matchups on the outside that they want to exploit, and neither team has an answer. This leads to both quarterbacks zeroing-in on one of their primary receivers, leading to a huge disparity between them and their receiver co-stars. On the Philadelphia side, this is fairly straightforward, as you can just stack Hurts with Brown or Smith. It’s more convoluted for Green Bay, where it seems like there’s no clear alpha receiver. But there absolutely can be an alpha in a one-week sample size. Stack Love with any of Reed, Doubs, or Watson (or even Wicks). After the two primary stacks, kickers, and any of the tight ends on either side make for decent mid-volume value plays.

Rocking the RUSH

The game is dominated by huge plays on the ground, with newly acquired running backs Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs flashing their star power and showing why both teams spent-up in free agency to acquire their services. Not to be outdone, Jalen Hurts, not unsurprisingly, adds to the scoring on the ground as well, making him the clear pay-up choice when opting between the quarterbacks. This leaves little salary for the game’s primary wide receivers, so leave all but one of Brown, Smith, Doubs, Watson, and Reed on the bench for lineups, taking advantage of this scenario.

Projected Ownership