Week 1 NFL Pick' Em & Survivor Pool Picks: Keeping It Simple

The kickoff to the 2024 NFL season is finally here, and with it comes a wave of excitement. Season-long fantasy drafts are wrapping up, and now everyone is turning their attention toward spreads and survivor pools. Each week, we’ll dive into the slate to pinpoint the best bets for pick’em leagues and map out a winning strategy for navigating the survivor landscape.

The Chalk

Many players get caught up in the details when discussing pick’em pools, often overlooking the bigger picture. While getting games right is crucial, the game theory aspect is often underemphasized. Pick’em pools are as much about probability and strategy as they are about knowing the Xs and Os. Each week, we’ll analyze how the public’s picks are trending and use that insight to guide our decisions.

Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints (-4)

Public confidence in the Saints this week is driven more by Carolina’s deficiencies than a resounding belief in New Orleans. The Saints are the stronger team across the board, boasting a Top 10 defense that allowed just 19.2 points per game last season, compared to the Panthers, who were vulnerable in just about every way on defense. Derek Carr provides a clear advantage at quarterback, capable of exploiting Carolina’s lack of defensive pressure and playmaking ability. Betting trends also highlight the disparity, with over 90% of pick 'em bets favoring the Saints this week—a reflection of Carolina’s struggles as they’ve failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine games as road underdogs.

This is not the week to go contrarian; there will be better opportunities to go against the grain later in the season.

Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills (-6.5)

Public confidence in the Buffalo Bills this week against the Arizona Cardinals is rooted in a clear mismatch between the two teams. The Bills enter as the stronger squad with a high-powered offense led by Josh Allen, who is projected to outperform Kyler Murray in both passing and rushing. The Cardinals, coming off a poor season, continue to struggle defensively and face significant challenges on the road. We're in a similar spot here. Later in the year, when you're trying to catch up in pick 'em, maybe you take a flier on Arizona here but right now you want to go with the flow.

Favorite Coin Flip

Each week, I'll outline my favorite matchup where neither team is being picked over 60% in public pools (when possible). These matchups are where pick 'em leagues are won in the long run. You may get lucky here and there with a big underdog that hits, but being right in these matchups that are perceived to be closer can be a huge advantage over the long run.

Dallas Cowboys at Cleveland Browns (-2.5)

This game is the closest we have to a coin flip but there's still a large disparity. Over two-thirds of the picks are coming in on Dallas this week. This is a good leverage spot where you can gain a bit of a leg up on other entries in your pool if you go with Cleveland. The Browns were already solid on defense but with the additions of Za'Darius Smith, Dalvin Thomas, and Juan Thornhill they could be a true force this year. There are plenty of scenarios here where the Browns defensive line disrupts the Cowboys enough to win the game. If Deshaun Watson can hold up his end of the bargain, this could be a spot where you gain points on two-thirds of the league.

Surviving Survivor

Survivor pools are a unique strategic challenge where misplaced emphasis can lead to early exits. Many participants focus heavily on saving strong teams for later in the season, but this strategy can backfire if you overlook the week you're in. The fundamental principle of survivor pools is survival, after all.

The Top Three

Week 1 presents a relatively clear set of top survivor picks, and three teams stand out as the best options. At the top of the list, the Cincinnati Bengals are the chalkiest pick, opening as 9-point favorites against the New England Patriots. The Patriots enter the season with a myriad of issues, including uncertainty at quarterback and an overhauled roster that lacks proven playmakers. The Bengals’ potent offense, led by Joe Burrow, makes them a safe play.

The Buffalo Bills are the next most popular survivor pick, favored by 5.5 points against the Arizona Cardinals. The Bills offer a great blend of safety and strategic value; while they are not the most popular pick, they still have a strong win probability, making them a reliable choice. Arizona’s roster instability, combined with Buffalo’s home-field advantage, makes this a straightforward pick that provides a good balance between safety and long-term planning.

The third option is the Seattle Seahawks, who are slightly less popular but offer significant value for those looking to save top teams like the Bengals for later. Seattle is favored against the Denver Broncos. This pick allows for a safer, less crowded path while preserving teams like the Bengals and Bills for more challenging weeks down the road.

Bottom Line

For Week 1, the key is not to overthink it. Survivor pools are won by advancing each week, not by making the boldest call early on. There’s a strong argument for simply picking against the Patriots for as long as possible, as they look like one of the weakest teams this season. New England’s tough schedule means you could feasibly target them as an opponent nearly every week until they face the Jets for the second time around Halloween.

While it’s tempting to save big names like the Bengals, this week, the safest route is to take the obvious choice and roll with Cincinnati in your pools. It’s not just about finding the right team to win—it’s about giving yourself the best chance to keep moving forward, and sometimes, that means sticking with the chalk and avoiding unnecessary risks.