10 Things You Need to Know About Week 12 for Fantasy Football

Football is a small-sample-size sport. Let’s make that problem even worse by diving into some interesting player and team splits. Jayden Reed absolutely fits that bill.

Jayden Reed: Break Glass in Case of Emergency

Reed has averaged 130 receiving yards per game in Packers’ losses but only 36 receiving yards in wins. In that respect, it’s obvious that the Packers don’t use Reed a lot in positive-game-script environments. But there has to be something more to this, as the Packers should have lost to the Bears in Week 11 if it wasn’t for a last-second blocked field goal. And Reed only managed 23 receiving yards in that one. I’d argue there are three main reasons for Reed’s receiving yard fluctuations.

The first is his average depth of target. Among the 90 WRs with 30+ targets this season, Reed has the 18th-lowest target depth at 8.5 yards. Now, Reed is a fantastic talent after the catch and can break off long gains from short route depths. But it’s still a harder way to get by.

The second reason is his route rate split by personnel package. The graph below shows the share of each receiver’s routes by personnel package. The x-axis is 11 personnel or when the offense has 3 WRs on the field. And the y-axis is 12 personnel or when the offense only has 2 WRs on the field. It’s filtered for a minimum of 50 routes run. What you’ll notice is that every Packers receiver is bunched into the top-left except for Reed who is by himself in the bottom-right corner. According to SIS, Reed has run one (!) route in 12 personnel this season and wasn’t targeted on that route. The fact that the Packers use more 12 personnel when they’re leading means Reed is off the field and unable to earn us fantasy goodness.

The third reason is the philosophy of the team. The graph below shows pass rate over expected (PROE) on the x-axis and how much that fluctuates weekly on the y-axis. You’ll find the Packers way in the top-left of the graph. Now, their most run-heavy games this season came when Jordan Love was injured. But they haven’t had a positive PROE since Week 4.

So, we’ll need opponents to push the Packers into passing situations to both get Reed on the field and Love to pass. Luckily, I’d argue five of their next six games are against teams with strong offenses, including the Vikings during fantasy championship week. Reed had his best game of the season with a 7/139/1 line against Minnesota in, you guessed it, Week 4 during their last positive PROE game. The fluctuations will continue, but the game scripts could favor Reed moving forward.

Jordan Love: Mostly YAC Last Week

Speaking of the Packers, last week was a change for how Jordan Love has driven value this season. The graph below shows average air yards per attempt on the x-axis and EPA per attempt driven by yards after the catch (YAC). What you’ll notice is a clear negative correlation. As a QB’s target depth increases, their efficiency is driven less by YAC, which makes sense. You’ll find Jordan Love all the way in the bottom-right of the graph. This is filtered for a minimum number of attempts that excludes Anthony Richardson so he doesn’t break the graph.

But in Week 11, Love’s average target depth was about a yard lower than we’re used to this season. And he had the fourth-highest YAC EPA per attempt last week. You’ll find him in the top-middle of the graph below that filters only for Week 11. So, his rate statistics were absolutely fantastic against the Bears. He hit an insane 15.4 yards per attempt on only 17 pass attempts. But a lot of this credit should be given to his receivers, which is a stark change from earlier in the season.

Anthony Richardson: Did the Break Actually Help?

I firmly disagreed with the decision to bench Anthony Richardson for Joe Flacco. Richardson is younger than Jayden Daniels with far fewer games under his belt. You need to give him actual starting experience rather than plug-in Flacco for the chance to lose a wildcard game this year. Well, the Flacco spot-starter experiment went even worse than I expected. But some potential silver lining is that Richardson had arguably the best game of his career in his return to the starting lineup.

Week 11 was Richardson’s first game with a positive completion percentage over expected (CPOE). Similarly, it was the highest completion percentage of his career at 67%. I was able to include Richardson in the Week 11 graph above because he didn’t break it for once. He’s in the top-right of the graph, but multiple QBs finished the day with a higher aDoT. Shane Steichen clearly set up Richardson with some designed screens and short passes early in the game to help his confidence.

Importantly for fantasy managers, it was also the second time this season that Richardson had 10+ rushing attempts. The yardage wasn’t great, but he got into the endzone twice on his 10 attempts. That included a bulldozing designed run early in the second quarter where he leveled the Jets defender on his way to the touchdown. Let’s hope they keep his target depth down and designed runs up.

Justin Herbert: Play Action Success

The Chargers avoided the chargering allegations and closed out a win against the Bengals last week. Justin Herbert had an absolutely stellar first half. And a lot of that was the continuation of a trend where the Chargers use a lot of play-action very successfully. The graph below shows the number of play-action pass attempts on the x-axis and the efficiency of those attempts on the y-axis. The Chargers are in the top-right with other elite offenses (and the Jaguars).

And most of Herbert’s success in Week 11 came in the first half on play-action attempts. According to SIS, he went 7/8 for 137 yards and both of his touchdowns on the day on first-half play action attempts. Also, after rug-pulling us in Week 10 with a -10% PROE, the Chargers passed more than expected again in Week 11, which was the fifth time in six games after their bye. So, the Chargers realize how successful their play-action passing game has been and are leaning into it. Combine this with Herbert scrambling on about 10% of his dropbacks last week and we’re cooking with gas.

Let The Steelers Defense Cook

The Steelers are 8-2 on the season and 2-0 in games where their offense failed to score a TD. That ties the rest of the league combined in wins without scoring a TD. The graph below shows defensive passing EPA on the x-axis and rushing EPA on the y-axis. You’ll find the Steelers in the top-right of the graph. They’re a top-7 or better defense in almost every metric.

According to Dan Pizzuta of the 33rd Team, the Steelers defense has been relying on man coverage against mobile quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson in recent weeks. That typically leaves space for opposing QBs to run, but the Steelers have enough talent rushing the passer and in the secondary to keep explosives down among rushing QBs. And Jackson struggled against man coverage last week, averaging only -0.36 EPA per play on those snaps. During the fantasy playoffs, the Steelers face two mobile QBs in Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson again. I’ll be starting Jackson in Week 16 hoping they’ll find answers in the weeks to come, but I’d understand if you want to go a different direction.

Jameis Winston: Massive Volume

Jameis Winston hasn’t dropped below 41 pass attempts in a game since taking over for DeShaun Watson. He’s had exactly 46 in each of his past two games. The Browns offense is now an environment in which every relevant receiver can get home. Here are the target ranks for Browns receivers during full-time Jameis starts: Jerry Jeudy (6th), Elijah Moore (tied-8th), and Cedric Tillman (tied-8th). David Njoku is tied for the 5th most targets among TEs over that span as well.

Now, the weeks ahead will be brutal for the Browns’ passing offense. They face the Steelers, the Broncos, and then the Steelers again over their next three. Both the volume and efficiency of the offense should drop given how these offenses want to play and the talent of the Steelers’ and Broncos’ defenses. But things open up a lot during the fantasy playoffs. They get the Chiefs in Week 15 who have a much better run defense than pass defense. And then the Bengals in Week 16 that got carved up by the Chargers in the first half last week. You could do worse than stashing any Browns pass catcher before the fantasy playoffs.

Jaylen Waddle: Wishing He Was on the Browns

Turning from the Browns, where every WR gets volume, to the Dolphins, where no WR gets volume. Jaylen Waddle has been bearing the brunt of this for the Dolphins. In 2023, 68% of Dolphins’ targets went to WRs, 23% to RBs, and only 9% to TEs. Well, this season, the share of targets going to WRs has plummeted to 50%, or an 18% drop from last year. Even with the massive success of De’Von Achane in the passing game, their RB target share has stayed exactly the same at 23%. It’s the TE target share tripling from 9% last year to 27% this year that is hurting Waddle the most.

Jonnu Smith is quietly the second-most targeted player on the team. Julian Hill has more targets than the Dolphins’ 3rd WR. As I discussed in a previous week, this Dolphins’ offense is still relying on outlier-level quick passes. But Tua Tagovailoa’s average target depth is significantly lower this year than last year. It’s clear they want to rely on De’Von Achane and Jonnu Smith on shorter routes to get the ball out of Tagovailoa’s hands. But in fantasy football, it’s tough to get by if Waddle is now 4th in the target pecking order. Here’s hoping some of the Dolphins' magic from last year, where they could still push the ball down the field despite a quick time to throw, returns soon.

Geno Smith: CPOE and EPA Disconnect

Geno Smith led all QBs in completion percentage over expected (CPOE) last week, completing 16.3% more passes than expected. But his overall efficiency tells a different story. While he lost 3.3 expected points on an interception, the sacks were more harmful. His four sacks were third-most on the week and cost the Seahawks 6.6 expected points. On the season, Smith now has the fourth-most sacks among all QBs.

But while sacks are often a QB statistic, I think we can reasonably put a lot of the blame on the Seahawks’ offensive line. Smith leads the league in the number of pressures faced, according to PFF, with Smith and C.J. Stroud representing outliers at the top. He’s done a reasonable job avoiding sacks when he can, with his 19.3% pressure-to-sack rate about average among QBs with 10+ games played. As I mentioned in previous weeks, the Seahawks are putting a lot on Smith’s shoulders given that they can’t pass protect and they can’t run the ball efficiently. And he delivered last week with a 64.3% success rate in the 4th quarter and two big scrambles to seal the win. The sacks are harmful, but let’s be careful about how much of the blame rests on Smith.

Commanders: 2-RB Sets

According to Benjamin Solak, the Commanders used a lot of 2-RB sets against the Eagles in Week 11 as a means to complicate Vic Fangio’s complicated, rules-based defense. That’s the continuation of a trend for the Commanders this season. The graph below shows the number of passing attempts in 2-RB sets on the x-axis and the efficiency of those attempts on the y-axis.

Among teams with at least 10 passing attempts in 2-RB sets, the Commanders lead the league in passing efficiency. In Week 11, that efficiency was driven completely by Austin Ekeler. He earned all four of the available targets in 2-RB sets last week, and managed to turn -2 air yards into 57 actual yards, thanks to 33 yards after contact. The Commanders play the Eagles again in Week 16 during the fantasy playoffs.

Week 12 Passing and Rushing Efficiency Matchups

Speaking of the Commanders, they have both fantastic passing and rushing matchups this week against the Dallas Cowboys. Jayden Daniels has struggled in recent weeks, but he’s had two extremely difficult matchups against the Steelers and Eagles. The more concerning thing is his rushing volume and efficiency have dipped since his rib injury as I talked about last week. Hopefully, we see that return during the fantasy playoffs since Washington has a Week 14 bye.

The Chiefs have an excellent rushing matchup against the Carolina Panthers. If Isiah Pacheco is fully healthy for this one, we could see a rare sight: an explosive Chiefs run. I’d also be willing to fire up Bucky Irving against the Giants this week. The Buccaneers are 5.5-point favorites against one of the least efficient run defenses in the league.