O-Line Rankings and Matchups to Exploit: Week 14

Dec 04, 2024

Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

Evaluating offensive line play regarding its effect on fantasy football output has been a stone unturned throughout our game within a game. Here at 4for4, we’re dedicated to looking at fantasy pieces from all angles, including an offensive line's positive and negative impact on that team’s fantasy assets.

Below, I’m going to be digging into specific weekly matchups between offensive lines and the opposing defense's aFPA —one of the many useful tools available to us here at 4for4. Many sites publish raw fantasy points allowed by position, but 4for4 goes a step further and adjusts those numbers for a defense’s relative year-to-date schedule strength. These numbers will continue to strengthen through more data points as the season progresses and, when compared to a team’s advantages within the trenches, will expose fantasy pieces we may not have otherwise considered.

Editor's Note: Check out the complete set of Week 14 rankings here.

Let’s begin by diving into the passing game to see what offensive line/defense matchups we can exploit.

Favorable Quarterback Matchups

Quarterback Matchups
O-Line Ranking	Team	Opponent	aFPA	Difference
6	PHI	CAR	24	18
5	TB	LVR	21	16
11	LAC	KC	25	14
16	MIN	ATL	28	12
1	DET	GB	12	11
21	DAL	CIN	30	9
2	GB	DET	11	9
10	ATL	MIN	19	9
13	MIA	NYJ	22	9
19	ARI	SEA	27	8
25	LVR	TB	32	7
27	CIN	DAL	29	2
12	KC	LAC	13	1
4	BUF	LAR	5	1
9	BAL	BYE	9	0
3	DEN	BYE	3	0
29	HOU	BYE	29	0
17	IND	BYE	17	0
32	NE	BYE	32	0
8	WAS	BYE	8	0
31	TEN	JAX	31	0
23	JAX	TEN	23	0
18	NO	NYG	14	-4
14	NYJ	MIA	8	-6
7	CAR	PHI	1	-6
15	SF	CHI	6	-9
20	PIT	CLE	7	-13
30	NYG	NO	17	-13
24	SEA	ARI	10	-14
26	CHI	SF	9	-17
22	LAR	BUF	3	-19
28	CLE	PIT	2	-26

Chargers @ Chiefs

The Chargers offense was admittedly quite stale in a great matchup last week, but they’ll have a chance to turn it around in a game that looks a lot easier to handle than we would have thought one short month ago. The Chiefs defense has looked more susceptible over their last five games, including the 340 yards they allowed to Aidan O’Connell in a closer-than-comfort 19-17 win in Week 13. In that span, Kansas City has had the second-lowest QB pressure rate (20.8%) and third-lowest pressure rate over expected (-5.82%).

Giving Justin Herbert time in the pocket has proved disastrous for defenses to this point in the season, including an 11:1 TD:INT rate, a staggering 74.7 adjusted completion percentage, and the league’s second-highest “Big Time Throw Rate” (9.3%) when he has more than 2.5 seconds to offload the ball. Push Herbert back into QB1 territory in Week 14, and continue to keep Ladd McConkey in WR2 range.

Vikings vs. Falcons

While the Falcons had a fantastic six-sack performance against the Chargers in Week 13, it’s hard to consider it much more than a fluke, as they entered the game with the second-lowest pressure rate (26.9%) and the league’s fewest amount of sacks (0.9/game). It would go a long way toward proving themselves as a stout unit if they can string together back-to-back games like that, but the Vikings aren’t the easiest bunch to go against. Cam Robinson will be making his second start since coming off the injury report with his foot injury, joining guard Blake Brandel, who has allowed only eight pressures over the last four games, on the left side of the line.

With Brian O’Neill more than capable of holding down his end of the bargain on the right side of the line, the Falcons project to fall back into the doldrums of the league’s pass rushes in Week 14. Fire up all the usual suspects (Sam Darnold, Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Aaron Jones, T.J. Hockenson) on a shortened slate that has the Vikings projected for the sixth-highest point total (25.5) of the week.

Buccaneers vs. Raiders

The Buccaneers keep finding themselves in these virtual pages, both because of their dominance as a pass-blocking unit and some continued favorable matchups. This week, the Raiders find themselves on the wrong end of 2024’s Pirate Battle, needing to lean on Maxx Crosby even more so than they typically do in order to slow down the Bucs’ offensive attack. There are worse players to lean on, but with no other player ranking in the top-80 in pressures forced, Tampa Bay will be sure to do everything they can to help their tackles in Week 14.

That’s if they even need the help. Left tackle Tristan Wirfs returned to the lineup last week and picked up right where he left off; allowing one pressure and continuing his streak of one-or-zero to seven straight full games. The Raiders are sure to try their luck by lining Crosby up on either side of the line, but right tackle Luke Goedeke has been no slouch, either. The 2022 second-round pick has been credited with only one sack this season and currently ranks 9th out of 83 qualifying tackles in PFF’s pass-blocking efficiency metric (98.1). For those wondering, Wirfs ranks first (99.2).

It’s not a perfect matchup against the Raiders secondary, but plan on Mike Evans continuing to eat as a WR1.

Favorable Defensive Matchups

Saints @ Giants

There’s somewhat of a “QB controversy” brewing in New York between two top-50 quarterback options in the game today, but it truly doesn’t matter whether Tommy DeVito or Drew Lock gets the start in Week 14: either one will take plenty of pressures and are very likely to turn the ball over, possibly multiple times.

In the six games since All-Pro left tackle Andrew Thomas went down with his season-ending foot injury, the Giants have allowed just under 15 pressures per game, good for a 37.6% pressure rate, the fourth-highest in the league. Their 11.58% pressure rate over expected has been the league’s worst mark, with a short-passing game doing little to alleviate the issue. While the Saints don’t have a particularly terrifying pass-rushing unit, they do have multiple sacks in each of their past five games, averaging 3.2 per game over that span. The Saints are this week’s top streaming D/ST option, and should probably be considered a top-3 click.

Update: Drew Lock is slated to start Week 14. Fire up the Saints.

49ers vs. Bears

The 49ers continue to pile up injuries on the offensive side of the ball, and though the defensive side hasn’t had a clean bill of health either (Nick Bosa, Deommodore Lenoir), they could still do enough to disrupt Caleb Williams’ pocket, particularly if they attack the right side of the line. Right tackle Darnell Wright was forced out of the Thanksgiving matchup with a knee issue —he also missed Week 10 with a knee injury— and in his steed, swing tackle Larry Borom was tasked with stopping the Lions’ moderate pass rush, surrendering five pressures on 27 pass-blocking snaps.

Even with Wright in the lineup, the Bears remain one of the most giving pass-blocking units in the league, allowing the 11th-highest pressure rate (32.7%) and the highest adjusted sack rate (11.0%) on the year. The 49ers D/ST makes for an interesting play after a number of fantasy managers likely dropped them after two straight negative-point performances.

Favorable Running Back Matchups

Running Back Matchups
O-Line Ranking	Team	Opponent	aFPA	Difference
6	PHI	CAR	32	26
4	BUF	LAR	21	17
1	DET	GB	13	12
5	TB	LVR	14	9
22	LAR	BUF	30	8
2	GB	DET	10	8
14	NYJ	MIA	22	8
18	NO	NYG	25	7
15	SF	CHI	19	4
19	ARI	SEA	23	4
13	MIA	NYJ	16	3
30	NYG	NO	31	1
9	BAL	BYE	9	0
3	DEN	BYE	3	0
29	HOU	BYE	29	0
17	IND	BYE	17	0
32	NE	BYE	32	0
8	WAS	BYE	8	0
28	CLE	PIT	28	0
31	TEN	JAX	29	-2
26	CHI	SF	24	-2
7	CAR	PHI	3	-4
21	DAL	CIN	15	-6
12	KC	LAC	6	-6
24	SEA	ARI	17	-7
16	MIN	ATL	9	-7
10	ATL	MIN	2	-8
11	LAC	KC	1	-10
23	JAX	TEN	12	-11
20	PIT	CLE	7	-13
25	LVR	TB	11	-14
27	CIN	DAL	4	-23

Eagles vs. Panthers

Let’s skip the part where we talk about how good Saquon Barkley is and why we should play him in fantasy football. The Eagles lead the league with 2.73 running back yards before contact, they’re scheming the run game up wonderfully, and Barkley is doing plenty enough on his own to make defenses look stupid. But on a week with six teams resting players, this could be a week where desperate managers scroll all the way down and consider Kenneth Gainwell.

It seems ridiculous on its head, but let’s look at the facts. Prior to Week 13’s showdown against the Baltimore Ravens in which the Eagles handed the keys over to Barkley in a tightly contested game, Gainwell was hovering around the 30% snap mark, including a three-week stretch in which he accumulated 110 total yards and 18.0 half-PPR points. Certainly not breathtaking numbers, but against a pudding-soft Panthers defense and Bryce Young on the other side, what are the odds the team wants Barkley out there taking 25+ touches?

As 12-point favorites on Sunday, Vegas doesn’t seem to think this is going to be competitive for very long. Is Gainwell a great option for your RB2 slot in Week 14. No. I’m not going that far, but there are a lot of managers looking at the Raiders backfield cluster, the 49ers’ backup options, and Chris Rodriguez this week. Gainwell doesn’t seem so crazy up against those options.

Bills @ Rams

Ray Davis did the thing again. The thing where he gets more than a handful of snaps and produces a legitimate fantasy performance that seems just about impossible to predict. Well, maybe a blizzard game would have been a good indication that the team would lean on him more, but he won’t have that luxury here in Los Angeles in a game that figures to be a closer affair than the Bills’ cruising 35-10 handling of the 49ers.

Though Davis is a fine play for desperate managers, all eyes should be on James Cook, who should return to his pass-catching ways after notching 15 targets in the three games prior to that blowout Week 13 win. The Rams, who have improved their pass rush, are still susceptible on the ground, ranking 23rd in stuffed rate (16.3%), 25th in yards per attempt (4.6), and 27th in yards per game (120.4) to non-quarterbacks since their Week 6 bye. Cook is very much in play to have a high-end RB1 performance.

Running Backs with Bad Matchups

As opposed to breaking down every bad matchup through the rest of the slate, here are some running backs I’m looking to avoid because of their poor offensive line and/or the strong defensive fronts they will be facing: