Week 7 NFL Player Prop Bets: Best Player Props to Bet from Connor Allen

Oct 17, 2024

Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

After going 10-1 in Week 5, Week 6 was back to reality. Everything that went our way in Week 5 did not in Week 6, which is okay. We can’t expect to win that much *every week*. I do expect to come out positive at the end of the season though and that subscribers won enough to cover their sub plus a lot extra. That has been the case for four consecutive seasons and I don’t plan on stopping. I’m up 11.2 units on the season, a solid start through 6 weeks.

Week 6 Recap:

Christian Kirk under 52.5 receiving yards
D’Andre Swift under 61.5 passing yards
Drake Maye U18.5 completions
Spencer Rattler U 194.5 passing yards
Mike Evans under 4.5 receptions
A.J. Brown over 68.5 & alts
Andrei Iosivas reception under 2.5
Joshua Palmer U32.5 receiving yards
Austin Ekeler U44.5 rushing yards
Keon Coleman U2.5 receptions
Ty Johnson over 43.5 rushing and receiving

I went just 6-7 this week for -1.14 units but there were multiple tilting losses that shifted the week. On his final drive, Drake Maye converted 3 fourth down opportunities to go over 20 completions with the game well out of hand. One stop on any of those and he goes under 18.5 completions.

Rattler threw for 140 yards in the first half, crushing during scripted plays and then struggled for a large majority of the second half as initially expected. Josh Palmer had zero yards until Patrick Surtain left the game, he then still only saw 3 targets, but two of them went for 38 yards. It’s a play I would make again. Without the Surtain injury he likely goes under.

Another CB injury haunted us on Monday with DJ Reed suffering a mid-game injury. Keon Coleman had just one catch until the middle of the 4th quarter. As soon as DJ Reed went down, the backup corner was playing 7-8 yards off Coleman and Josh Allen saw that. He pulled out of a run into an easy throw for 7 yards to Coleman.He ran a curl route the time after which was even easier with the corner 10 yards off him this time. I’m not sure what the fella was so scared about considering Keon Coleman can’t separate for his life but that was a tilting loss.

To wrap it up, we played Ty Johnson’s rushing and receiving over 43.5 after reports came out that he was starting in warmups and working with the 1’s.. We already knew he would get all of the long down and distance 3rd down snaps plus 2-minute drill work. Johnson didn’t catch a single pass all game. He still nearly got there on the ground (34 yards) but after starting the game off with a 12 yard run, he touched the ball just 3 more times the entire game as Ray Davis dominated work. Ray Davis actually had a higher touch share than all but one game of James Cook’s career.

Weeks like this are frustrating as I think more often than not we are probably profitable. With that being said, i’m excited to dive into Week 7 and we have already released 5 props!

Week 7 Player Prop Bets

Audric Estime (DEN) over 14.5 rushing yards (-115 at DraftKings)

Javonte Williams fumbled in the late 2nd quarter last week and didn't record another carry the rest of the game. Estime then started the second half. We already saw the Broncos try to work in Tyler Badie over Javonte Williams and Mclaughlin earlier this season before his injury, and they could try to go with Estime even more here after the two starters have largely stunk. This line is so low, though we really only need 4-5 carries to feel good about this bet against a Saints defense that has played over 150 snaps the last two weeks (including MNF the week prior) and now has an even shorter week. They allowed 5.2 yards per carry the last two weeks to TB and KC, leaving a ton of upside for Estime here. On top of my speculation, Sean Payton mentioned they need to get Estime more involved multiple times this week per Coachspeak Index. I also played alts and some ATD for fun.

Risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit