Gerald Everett, Joe Williams & 8 Other Rookie Risers & Fallers

Jun 01, 2017

Last week, I covered the top veteran dynasty risers and fallers after the fallout of the NFL Draft, including players like Mike Gillislee, Marshawn Lynch and T.J. Yeldon. While the draft plays a significant role in the value of these vets and others, it clearly defines for the first time exactly how we should value the incoming rookies.

At Dynasty League Football, the rookie class of 2017 has been a part of mock drafts and ADP data since February, meaning we now have a good idea of how landing spots and draft capital will affect each rookie. Let’s take a look at the top post-draft risers and fallers, based on the change between April and May dynasty startup ADP.

Risers

Joe Williams, RB SF

April ADP: 236.5

May ADP: 170.7

Change: +65.8

Soon after the draft wrapped up, the story of how the 49ers ended up selecting former Utah running back Joe Williams became public knowledge, thanks to an inside look at the Niners’ draft room by Peter King. This behind-the-scenes look, which gave some perspective about just how badly new head coach Kyle Shanahan wanted Williams, led to a quick spike in his value. In early rookie fantasy drafts held immediately after the NFL Draft, Williams was routinely falling to the third round or even later, but that quickly changed.

Mirroring rookie drafts, Williams was also a fast riser in the startup mock drafts, jumping over six rounds from being nearly undrafted in April to an ADP of 170.7 by May. With lingering doubts about the long-term future of Carlos Hyde in San Francisco, expect Williams’ value to continue to rise throughout the offseason.

Marlon Mack, RB IND

April ADP: 204.8

May ADP: 153.8

Change: +51

Mack, the former South Florida running back, was a difficult player to evaluate before the draft. It seemed that most analysts either loved or hated his game, with little in between. He often drew comparisons to Tevin Coleman, but fantasy players seemed as unsure as draftniks and Mack routinely fell outside of the top 200 in pre-NFL Draft startups.

Surprisingly, the Colts waited until the fourth round to address running back and scooped up Mack. The team has little behind the veteran Frank Gore, so this should be an excellent landing spot for Mack, although he lacks traits of the typical every-down back and next year’s rookie class once again looks stacked, so dynasty owners are being cautious. That said, the favorable landing spot alone was enough to boost Mack’s ADP by over four full rounds in startup drafts.

Gerald Everett, TE LAR

April ADP: 236.5

May ADP: 195.8

Change: +40.7

Perhaps dynasty players just became too enamored with first-round tight ends O.J. Howard, Evan Engram and David Njoku, causing all of the other rookies at the position to be overlooked. Soon after using his second-round selection on Everett, new Rams head coach Sean McVay, the former Redskins offensive coordinator, compared Everett to one of the league's top receiving tight ends, Jordan Reed. The Rams lost last year's leading receiver Kenny Britt in free agency and also released tight end Lance Kendricks. This should offer Everett an immediate opportunity for playing time. His 40-spot increase in ADP shows dynasty owners are fully buying into this coach speak.

Adam Shaheen, TE CHI

April ADP: 241

May ADP: 201.7

Change: +39.3

Shaheen is another second-round tight end whose dynasty value is trending upward. Before the NFL Draft, the small-school tight end wasn’t even being drafted in the dynasty mocks, but once the Bears made him a day two pick, he quickly climbed dynasty draft boards. Like Everett, Shaheen landed in a nice spot where he could play right away. Veteran Zach Miller will return, but he suffered a Lisfranc foot injury late last season. Dion Sims signed, but he is not a number-one caliber tight end. The transition from Division II Ashland to the NFL will be a difficult one for Shaheen, but ultimately, he should be able to overtake his competition and climb atop the depth chart.

Kareem Hunt, RB KC

April ADP: 142.2

May ADP: 103.7

Change: +38.5

Before the Chiefs used their third-round pick on Hunt, his dynasty value was in flux. Early in the offseason, the former Toledo workhorse's ADP was 122, tumbling as low as 142.2 prior to the NFL Draft, but landing with the Chiefs has boosted his stock back up near the top 100. The Chiefs' running game was a huge strength not too long ago, but in 2016, Jamaal Charles played his final down for his longtime team, while both Spencer Ware and Charcandrick West, who had flashed in relief duty the previous year, disappointed. Hunt is unlikely to walk into camp and quickly claim the starting job, but he will certainly have a role. Not to mention, head coach Andy Reid’s track record with running backs is quite impressive. Hunt has been a trendy pick late in the first round of rookie drafts. He’ll likely continue to gain value as training camp nears.

Other Rookie Risers

Wayne Gallman, RB NYG +37.7
Deshaun Watson, QB HOU +37.7
Jake Butt, TE DEN +36.3
Aaron Jones, RB GB +33
Josh Reynolds, WR LAR +31.7

Fallers

K.D. Cannon, WR NYJ

April ADP: 148.7

May ADP: 212.7

Change: -64

Like many Baylor wideouts before him, Cannon has been praised for his speed and big-play ability, but his hands are questionable, which was enough to cause him to go undrafted. In the undrafted free agency frenzy that follows the conclusion of the NFL Draft, Cannon signed with the 49ers, but was waived just a week later. It was reported that Cannon was showboating during a drill and the 49ers' new coaching staff chose to make an example out of him. Fortunately for Cannon, the Jets claimed him on waivers, but he seems to be a long shot to make an impact anytime soon. Earlier in the offseason, Cannon was viewed as a potential first-round dynasty rookie pick, but now he’s not even being selected in the average rookie draft.

Malachi Dupre, WR GB

April ADP: 173

May ADP: 220.2

Change: -47.2

After his first two seasons at LSU, Dupre was projected to be among the elite players entering the league in the 2017 class. Early projections, both for the NFL and dynasty leagues, pegged him as a future first-rounder. After a disappointing season with the Tigers, it was clear that would not be the case, but draft weekend was not kind to Dupre, who fell all the way to the late seventh round before being selected by the Green Bay Packers. While the Packers have an impressive track record of finding and developing late-round wideouts, they also have a fairly crowded depth chart as a result. Dupre will be lucky to see the field at all this season. In fact, he’ll be lucky to make the team. His talent and pedigree as a former five-star recruit makes him a worthy dart throw late in drafts, but expect his ADP to continue to tumble.

Isaiah Ford, WR MIA

April ADP: 186.8

May ADP: 230.3

Change: -43.5

The story with Ford is similar to both Cannon and Dupre, except Ford lacked the hype over the past year. An unheralded but productive player from Virginia Tech, Ford began to earn some attention as the draft neared. Some dynasty owners were targeting him in the second round of early rookie drafts. Ultimately, he too fell to the seventh round and was chosen by the Dolphins, who sport an imposing receiver depth chart, anchored by Jarvis Landry, Kenny Stills, and DeVante Parker. Miami also spent a day two pick on receiver Leonte Carroo a year ago, and he may not even make the roster. It will be difficult for Ford to find a role in this offense, which has led to him falling to the last round of the dynasty mock drafts.

Dede Westbrook, WR JAX

April ADP: 184.7

May ADP: 209.5

Change: -24.8

Westbrook, a former junior college transfer, had a season for the ages in 2016, as he and quarterback Baker Mayfield connected for numerous game breaking plays. This led to both players making a trip to New York as Heisman finalists and Westbrook was being viewed as a first-round dynasty rookie pick. Things went wrong for Westbrook once the offseason began, however. As teams and draft analysts began to really dig into the history of incoming players, reports of multiple injuries and some off-field issues involving became public. His draft stock took a hit and there were even some projections that he would go undrafted. He bypassed a chance to play in the Senior Bowl and was reportedly kicked out of a team interview at the Combine. With all of this said, the Jaguars still used their fourth-round pick on Westbrook despite a stacked receiving corps. Westbrook’s stock has been falling throughout the off-season, but he is the one player on this list with a clear path to redeem himself and regain some of that value.

Elijah Hood, RB OAK

April ADP: 206.8

May ADP: 228.3

Change: -21.5

Following the 2016 college football season, North Carolina running back Elijah Hood announced he would return to school for his senior season. It was a slight blow to the overall class, as some projected Hood as a late first-round or early second-round selection in dynasty leagues. Soon though, Hood changed his mind and ultimately entered the draft. As of now, he should have stuck with his original decision. Hood went undrafted and was signed by the Oakland Raiders. Of course, the Raiders recently acquired veteran Marshawn Lynch and return a pair of solid rookies from last season, DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard. Hood will have a chance to carve out a role in 2018 if he can stick on the roster or practice squad, but his ADP will continue to fall. He’s unlikely to even be selected in most dynasty startup drafts.