How Does Free Agency Impact Fantasy Production?

Free agency is fun to follow, but it's often overrated in the world of fantasy football. For every 2008 Michael Turner (1,699 rushing yards, 17 TDs after signing with the Falcons to be their starter), there are three players who go the way of 2006 Edgerrin James, who gained 655 fewer total yards as a Cardinal than he did in the previous year as a Colt.

I compiled all the major (and moderate) free agent signings since 2005 to see if there is anything we can learn. (Note: Free agent data isn’t easy to find, so if there are any major signings that are missing, please let me know.)

Aside from a few exceptions, established players — those who averaged more than 5.0 fantasy points per game (standard scoring) in the two seasons prior to changing teams — generally saw their production decrease with their new teams. Why did I go with a cutoff of 5.0 PPG? That basically equates to top 50 numbers for running backs and wide receivers, so those players have been fantasy relevant in the short term.

Below is a table for each position. We’ll start with the quarterbacks…

There haven’t been that many (11) established quarterbacks who have changed teams over the last 11 years, but since QBs are more in control of their own production than the other positions, six of the 11 managed to increase their per game averages in the first season following free agency (Y+1). As a group, their PPG and season totals both dropped by 8% and 11% respectively.

This year, Brock Osweiler and Robert Griffin III will have the chance to establish themselves (or re-establish, in the case of RG3) with new teams. For both players, a best-case scenario is probably 2015 Tyrod Taylor, who won the Bills job and finished with the 7^th-highest PPG last season. (By the way, Taylor is one of my favorite sleepers at the position, provided the Bills don’t draft a quarterback.)

For running backs, I wanted to look at starting-caliber backs (i.e. RB1s & RB2s) versus the flex- or backup-type runners, so I divided the position into those who averaged at least 8.0 FP and those who didn’t. Those who scored more had farther to fall, and fall they did by an average of 26% (PPG) in Y+1. In fact, 14 of the 23 backs who averaged at least 8.0 FP over the two previous years saw their production drop by at least 10%.

Nine RBs in the the 8.0-plus group were drafted (on average) in the first six rounds and had an average 17% drop in per game production and a 24% drop in yearly fantasy points.

The under-8.0 group saw an average 31% increase in PPG and 32% increase in end-of-year fantasy points, spearheaded by 2006 Chester Taylor, 2013 Danny Woodhead, 2011 Darren Sproles and 2015 Darren McFadden.

Two players who didn’t make the minimum 5.0 PPG cut were 2005 LaMont Jordan and 2008 Michael Turner, who finished #8 and #2, respectively, the year after free agency. On the flip side, I thought 2014 Toby Gerhart had a good chance to emerge in Jacksonville, but he suffered an ankle injury early on and never really got going.

This year, we have a number of high-profile backs changing teams. Lamar Miller should be fine with what should be an increased workload in Houston, while Matt Forte and Chris Ivory may see a decrease in touches as they join new teams. Alfred Morris will compete with the aforementioned McFadden in Dallas. The 29-year-old Arian Foster is still waiting to find a team.

Generally, free agency isn’t good for receiver production, with 21 of the 26 WRs in the 8.0-plus group seeing their PPG decline by an average of 33% in Y+1. The group as a whole saw a 24% decline in PPG and 21% in total fantasy points.

The ten receivers in this group that were drafted in the first six rounds saw an average drop of 17% and 8% in PPG and total points, respectively.

The under-8.0 group didn’t fare much better with an average drop of 16% in PPG and 17% in total points, though there have been situations where players have flourished with new teams. 2014 Emmanuel Sanders, 2015 Michael Crabtree, 2015 James Jones, 2014 Brandon LaFell, 2007 Kevin Curtis and 2014 Golden Tate are the best examples. This group saw their targets increase by an average of 45%, with Jones being the only player to have his targets drop year to year.

2007 Wes Welker increased his per game production by 186% when he left Miami for New England, but he didn’t make the 5.0 PPG cutoff.

This year, Marvin Jones (7.7 PPG over his last two seasons) joins the Lions and will be asked to replace at least a portion of Calvin Johnson’s production. I think his production has a chance to increase given a larger role in the offense.

Mohamed Sanu is also getting a promotion as he becomes the #2 option in Atlanta. His targets should double from the 49 he saw last year. He was the #30 fantasy receiver in 2014 when he was targeted 98 times due to injuries to both A.J. Green and Jones.

I’m not terribly bullish on Travis Benjamin, who will be hard-pressed to match the 125 targets he garnered in 2015. His QB situation is improving dramatically, however, so there is some upside there if he somehow works his way into the #2 option in the San Diego passing game. Unfortunately, he could be as low as 5^th behind Keenan Allen, Antonio Gates, Stevie Johnson and Danny Woodhead.

The dark horse of this free agent class is Rishard Matthews, who was on pace for a 67-1059-6.4 breakout season prior to injuring his ribs. He’s landing in Tennessee, which in recent years hasn’t been a hotbed of passing efficiency. But with Marcus Mariota under center and a less than stellar depth chart (Dorial Green-Beckham, Kendall Wright, etc.), I wouldn’t be shocked if Matthews finishes the season as the Titans’ top fantasy receiver.

And don't forget about Chris Hogan, who may end up starting for the Patriots. If he wins the job, he should be able to post 2014 Brandon LaFell-type numbers.

The data for the tight end position is pretty thin, though the seven players who qualified saw their PPG drop by an average of 42% and their full-season production drop by 39%. Only 2013 Martellus Bennett was able to raise his PPG in Y+1.

However, these numbers don’t include 2012 Martellus Bennett (+212%) or 2013 Delanie Walker (+113%) since they didn’t meet the 5.0 FP threshold.

Bennett and Walker bode pretty well for Ladarius Green who had produced when given starter’s snaps, but simply hasn’t had the opportunity to carve out a role playing behind future Hall of Famer Antonio Gates. Green joins a high-octane Pittsburgh offense that will be without its primary red zone target (Martavis Bryant).

Coby Fleener meets the 5.0 FP threshold, but he’s no longer in a timeshare with Dwayne Allen and has produced strong TE1 numbers when Allen has been sidelined. The future looks very bright for both Green and Fleener.

Bottom Line

Generally, in-prime or past-prime players that make lateral moves to new teams are going to see a small to significant drop in production, but there are exceptions, so each move needs to be evaluated on its own merits. While Matt Forte and Chris Ivory may be entering timeshares, Lamar Miller should see plenty of touches in Houston's run-heavy offense.

When a young player who flashes talent as a backup is promoted to starter status with a new team, fantasy owners should pay attention. That's how you find emerging stars like 2005 LaMont Jordan, 2006 Chester Taylor, 2007 Wes Welker and 2008 Michael Turner.

This year, I'm very optimistic about Coby Fleener and Ladarius Green, who both fit the bill. I'm also feeling good about the opportunity that Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu will get in Detroit and Atlanta, respectively.