DFS Running Back Analysis: Week 2

Sep 14, 2017

Here is a breakdown on a handful of running backs, including their upside, downside, and where we can find an edge for the Week 2 slate of games.

I will be breaking down the running back position each week based on the following set of criteria:

Chalk: The players who should end up being very highly owned for the slate.
Studs: Expensive players with high floor and ceilings that should come with a lower ownership percentages than the chalk.
Mid-Range: Players who come in cheaper than studs but aren't value or "punt" plays.
Value: The cheapest options at the position.

Chalk

Last week I wrote that “until further notice, LeVeon Bell and David Johnson will always project as being the highest-owned running backs on any slate.” Welp. We're officially on notice that Johnson and Bell no longer project to be chalk. While I think Bell still does carry some decent ownership in single entry and in cash games, Kareem Hunt and Melvin Gordon might just carry even more (and rightfully so).

We saw Kareem Hunt (6800/7800) have close to 60% of his team's offensive snaps on Thursday Night Football and touch the ball a total of 19 times. His usage was highly encouraging, and he will face a Philly team that ranks 22nd in projected RB aFPA. Kansas City is a -4.5 home favorite with a healthy implied team total of 26 points. It's important to remeber that Andy Reid seems to be a much better coach when allowed extra time (15–2 coming off of byes), and he will have had an extra three days to prepare for this game.
Ty Montgomery (5800/6500), aka “Ty Mont” looks to be a lock for me at RB2 this week even though he should be chalky. While I am usually not a fan of targeting road underdog RBs, that is about the only box he does not check on my proverbial list. The Packers do have a 25.5-point implied team total and Atlanta is projected at 30th in RB aFPA. Tarik Cohen and Jordan Howard combined for over 160 all-purpose yards last week against Atlanta. Ty Mont also comes with some excellent TD upside due to how often the Packers get inside the 20-yard line.
Another RB who will carry some decent ownership due to recency bias is Leonard Fournette (6500/7600). After being hyped most of the offseason, people wont forget a guy who rushed for 100 yards and touched the ball 29 total times (26 attempts and 3 receptions). The Titans rank 8th in RB aFPA, but they did just allow 4.2 yards per carry to Marshawn Lynch last week. With the Jags being at home with what looks to be a monster of a defense, Fournette might see all the work he can get in this matchup.