DraftKings Week 3 Slate Breakdown with Cash and GPP Picks

Sep 21, 2017

In the introduction to his book Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness, Richard H. Thaler proposes a movement he coins libertarian paternalism—don’t worry, this has nothing to do with politics. In short, Thaler suggests choices should be offered in a style that makes it easy for people to go their own way but constructed in such a manner people’s lives are ultimately better.

Humans, Thaler argues, don’t respond perfectly to incentives and perform more rationally when provided with well-chosen default options. Rather than simply giving you a list of a few good players to consider on DraftKings, my goal here is to present as much actionable information as possible with well-chosen default options so that you can better your (DFS) life, while still giving you the freedom to intelligently build your own profitable lineups based on your preferred choices.

Each week, I’ll give my overall DraftKings cash game and tournament strategy thoughts, and discuss how players fit into these strategies. By offering a general approach to the week, along with a player pool to consider, you should walk away feeling well-equipped no matter your bankroll strategy or game selection process.

Main Slate Cash Game Strategy

Pricing is especially tight on DraftKings this week, which means paying up for any position is going to lead to noticeable sacrifices at other roster spots. This is almost always the case, to some degree, but with very few jump-off-the-page values, owners will almost certainly submit lineups feeling less than enthused. Don’t fret, though—as I mentioned on this week’s DFS MVP podcast, weeks with noticeable tough pricing are the times when I play at the upper ends of my bankroll limits. Properly pinpointing marginal values and exploiting factors such as roster-construction techniques are skills amplified when pricing is tight, leading to a theoretical decrease in variance compared to weeks where pricing is loose and roster building is a free for all. There are a handful of high-priced, high-volume running backs in favorable spots this week, so approaching cash games with the traditional model of paying up for at least one player at the most consistent, predictable position looks to be the preferred strategy.

Quarterback

Raiders at Redskins is the only game that opened with a projected game total over 50 points and the spread is just three, but Kirk Cousins ($6,100) comes at a $700 discount to Derek Carr ($6,800). In an effort to keep pace with Oakland’s high-scoring offense, Washington will deploy their most pass-heavy game plan of the young season. The over/under in the Detroit-Atlanta game has moved beyond 50 points since betting opened this week and the spread in this game is also just a field goal there. Matthew Stafford ($6,200) already has six passing touchdowns this year and will face a Falcons defense that opened the season ranked 30th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to quarterbacks. Along with Aaron Rodgers ($7,300), Cousins and Stafford make up the three quarterbacks with the best odds to hit cash game value this week. In a week where finding viable salary-saving options is a must, DeShone Kizer ($5,000) is an attractive option as a favorite over a Colts defense ranked 29th against quarterbacks. DraftKings scoring and pricing algorithm lends itself to saving at the position and Kizer offers a rushing floor for cushion.