FanDuel Week 4 Slate Breakdown with Cash and GPP Picks

Sep 28, 2017

The way I want to attack the Week 4 slate is by letting others beat themselves. Recency bias will cause the public to chase monster games from the three most expensive players on the slate—Tom Brady ($9,500), Antonio Brown ($9,100), and Odell Beckham ($9,100)—all of whom cost at least $500 more than any other player. Brady is $1,500 more than any other QB, while Brown and Beckham are $800 and $700 more than any other WR, respectively. Throw in Rob Gronkowski ($8,500) being $1,600 more than any other TE, and there's a lot of potential for the field to lock itself into a particular type of roster construction. The fact there are no clear games to target (there are no games with an over/under of 50+ points) only increases the likelihood that expensive studs with name value will be in a high percentage of lineups.

Games to Target

Bills (20.25) at Falcons (28.25): O/U 48.5

While it might seem like you should shy away from the Falcons against a Bills defense allowing a league-low 13.3 points per game, that has come against three lightweight offenses in the 49ers, Panthers, and Broncos. In six career home games against Sean McDermott’s defenses while he was in Carolina, Matt Ryan ($8,000) has averaged 313.5 passing yards and 8.83 yards per attempt. Devonta Freeman ($8,500) averages 1.24 total TDs per game at home since 2015. Julio Jones’ $8,400 salary is $100 above its lowest point since the start of 2015. If he goes, he’ll face a Bills defense that has allowed the third-most receptions to wide receivers (43). Since the start of last season, Matt Bryant ($5,000) has scored double-digit FanDuel points in 13-of-19 games and has been under 8.0 points only twice, with a low of 6.0.

If Atlanta gives the Bills defense its toughest test to date, Tyrod Taylor ($7,100) will likely have to eclipse his season-high of 28 pass attempts. After averaging 8.2 yards per attempt on 20-of-26 passing with 2 TDs against Denver’s stout defense last week, Taylor should be considered cash-viable at his modest price tag. That viability is aided by his rushing floor (8 attempts in every game). Also cash-viable is Charles Clay ($5,300), who is tied for eighth among TEs in targets per game (6.0) and has received 50% of Buffalo’s red zone targets. An off-the-radar GPP play is slot receiver Jordan Matthews ($6,300), who will run most of his routes against Brian Poole, the third-most targeted cornerback in the league (9.3 per game). Matthews is unlikely to stay stuck on 11 targets (0 in the red zone), and in what could potentially be Buffalo’s first pass-heavy game script could aid in the regression. This game also sets up well for LeSean McCoy ($8,300), who like most speedy players, plays better indoors on the fast track. McCoy averages 6.05 yards per carry and 1.2 TDs per game in his career indoors, compared to 4.56 yards per carry and 0.6 TDs per game outdoors. McCoy’s 18 receptions are tied for second among RBs.