DFS Running Back Analysis: Week 6

Oct 12, 2017

Here is my breakdown on a handful of running backs, including their upside, downside, and where we can find an edge for the Week 6 slate of games.

I will be breaking down the running back position each week based on the following set of criteria:

Chalk: The players who should end up being very highly owned for the slate.
Studs: Expensive players with high floor and ceilings that should come with a lower ownership percentages than the chalk.
Mid-Range: Players who come in cheaper than studs but aren't value or "punt" plays.
Value: The cheapest options at the position.

Chalk

We will have the usual suspects of Kareem Hunt, Leonard Fournette, and LeVeon Bell being the chalk this week. However, I think we see Devonta Freeman and potentially Alvin Kamara carry high ownership as well.

Leonard Fournette (8000/8600) has a raw point projection with in 1 point of LeVeon Bell this week here at 4for4, but carries a much cheaper price tag on both sites. He will be facing the Rams, who rank 32 in RB aFPA, and is 2.5-point home favorite. He played a season high 72% of his team's snaps last week and touched the ball 29 times.
Kareem Hunt (8200/9300) makes the optimal lineup for both FanDuel and DraftKings this week and is our top projected running back. Kansas City will be at home again this week as a 4.5-point favorite, and they carry a healthy implied team total of 25 points.
Devonta Freeman (7400/8500) is a little underpriced for me on DraftKings this week, but I do think he is appropriately priced on FanDuel. In games when Atlanta is at home and favored by a TD or more, Freeman has found the end zone an average of 1.4 times per game and averages 94 rush yards. Guess what? Atlanta is at home and is an 11.5-point favorite.
Jerick McKinnon (4100/5600) was on national TV last week and had a 20-point fantasy game, which should lead to increased ownership. He was heavily used in the passing game, seeing 6 targets, and also saw 16 rushing attempts on 67% of Minnesota's snaps. Game scripts sets up for another good week for McKinnon with the Vikings being home underdogs.
Alvin Kamara (4500/5800) has been extremely efficient with his low snap counts, averaging 0.60 PPR points per snap and 0.38 standard points per snap through five weeks. The issue is he is only playing an average of 35% of his team's snaps. The Saints just sent Adrian Peterson to the Cardinals, and that along with Kamara’s efficiency will move ownership in his direction. I am not sure why, though, as Peterson never touched the ball more than 11 times in a single game this year (he averaged 7.3 touches per game) and averaged a 17.9% snap share in the Saints offense.
LeVeon Bell’s (9600/9000) usage was extremely frustrating last week versus a bottom-tier Jaguars run defense. This week, he will face the Chiefs—who rank first in RB aFPA—as a road underdog. Bell's pass-catching ability always gives him upside, but as usual, he is pricey this week.