DFS Running Back Analysis: Week 9

Nov 02, 2017

Here is my breakdown on the DFS-relevant running backs of the week, including their upside, downside, and where we can find an edge for the Week 9 slate of games.

I will be breaking down the position based on the following set of criteria:

Chalk: The players who should end up being very highly owned for the slate.
Studs: Expensive players with high floor and ceilings that should come with a lower ownership percentages than the chalk.
Mid-Range: Players who come in cheaper than studs but aren't value or "punt" plays.
Value: The cheapest options at the position.

Chalk

With both LeSean McCoy and LeVeon Bell not available on the main slate, we should see Todd Gurley as the highest-owned running back in the stud price range. Lamar Miller is priced appropriately on both sites, but comes in as our third-best value on DraftKings and fourth-best value on FanDuel.

Mark Ingram (7600/7900) did not see as much of a hike in salary as I would have expected, which should ultimately lead him to being highly owned in both cash games and tournaments. The Saints are yet again home favorites, and carry a massive implied team total of 29 points. It is worth noting that Ingram fumbled twice in the fourth quarter last week, and only played 51% of his team's offensive snaps while handling 24 touches, both three-week lows.
Lamar Miller (6200/7500) is in a dream matchup versus, the Colts who rank 30th in running back aFPA and have allowed opposing backs to gain an average of 104 rushing yards and 0.69 TD's per game this season. Miller posted a season-high 87% snap rate last week and also handled a season-high 24 touches. When the Vegas props come out, look for Miller to be at least a -150 favorite for a rushing TD.
Todd Gurley (8100/9100) is priced right next to Kareem Hunt, who is coming off a handful of lackluster (fantasy) performances. This will likely cause Gurley to be the higher owned of the two (which should provide us some leverage by going with Hunt). The Rams are on the road this week versus the Giants, who rank 19th in running back aFPA, and LA carries an implied team total of 23 points. Prior to the bye week, Gurley was second in the league with 8 rush attempts from within the 5-yard line and 22 attempts from within the 20-yard line—a big part of what makes Gurley extremely valuable.
Alvin Kamara (6300/6600) has a good chance to end up as chalk along with his teammate, Ingram. Obviously, Kamara has all of the same contextual factors going for him that Ingram does, but it's also possible Kamara might see a few more touches this week due to Ingram’s late game fumbles last week.