DraftKings Week 9 Slate Breakdown with Cash and GPP Picks

Nov 02, 2017

UPDATE (SUNDAY): Leonard Fournette and Zach Ertz are OUT.

UPDATE: Deshaun Watson (ACL) is OUT and Ezekiel Elliott is playing. The quarterback, running back, and wide receiver sections of this article now contain updates reflecting the news.

In honor of the busy NFL trade deadline, TJ Hernandez and I have decided to get into the action. We’ve traded slate breakdowns, with TJ taking FanDuel and me taking DraftKings, so that over the course of the season, you can get an idea of how we attack each site. If you were a reader of my FanDuel slate breakdown, note I’ll be changing up the format a bit here. Whereas on FanDuel it’s easier to fit the combinations of players you want and the key is targeting the offenses that score the most TDs on the week, you don’t have to target specific teams as much on DraftKings because the full-PPR scoring system and yardage bonuses provide more avenues to find value. The FLEX position on DraftKings also puts more of an emphasis on finding value at lower price points than you need to on FanDuel. With that said, my breakdown will go position-by-position, with a special emphasis on unearthing low-owned contrarian plays for the WR3 and FLEX spots. Beyond those aforementioned changes, the idea here remains the same—I highlight the plays I want to have more exposure to the field than and then break down the primetime slate. Week 9 funnel ratings appear at the end of the article.

Quarterback

UPDATE (Nov. 2): With Deshaun Watson (ACL) out, the QB landscape changes significantly. Drew Brees ($7,300), Russell Wilson, and Dak Prescott are expected to be the highest-owned QBs, all in the 10–15% range. All three are now cash-viable along with Alex Smith. Of the four, I prefer Prescott for the savings and slightly higher projection than Smith. The bump in projected ownership for Prescott makes him, like Wilson and Brees, a low-leverage GPP play, so I'd only want to be overweight on the aforementioned trio in cash games.

UPDATE (Nov. 3): Ezekiel Elliott's presence knocks Prescott's ownership projection down to a more palatable level, putting him back in play in tournaments. Prescott becomes too risky for cash games, however, as the Cowboys are now liable to rely heavily on Elliott like they did last week when Prescott attempted just 22 passes.

As the highest-scoring player in fantasy going against the defense allowing the most aFPA to QBs, Deshaun Watson ($8,100) is a cash game lock; he has the highest cash odds on the slate (58%) and no QB comes within 10 percentage points. Watson is a risky but plausible GPP fade, however, as his leverage score is the lowest of the nine players on the main slate priced $7,400 and above.

Significantly reduced cash and GPP odds compared to Watson despite relatively high salaries and projected ownership render Russell Wilson and Drew Brees as low-leverage Week 9 QB plays; Dak Prescott ($6,700) and Alex Smith ($6,500) have similar upside and won’t cost you as much leverage. Of the 15 games this season where teams combined for 60+ points, the Cowboys and Chiefs have combined to account for five, so this game has a good chance of turning into a shootout; its 51-point over/under and pick'em spread suggest as much.