DFS Running Back Analysis: Week 13

Nov 29, 2017

Here is my breakdown of the DFS-relevant running backs for Week 13, including their upside, downside, and where we can find an edge in this week's slate of games.

I will be breaking down the running back position each week based on the following set of criteria:

Chalk: The players who should end up being very highly owned for the slate.
Studs: Expensive players with high floor and ceilings that should come with a lower ownership percentages than the chalk.
Mid-Range: Players who come in cheaper than studs but aren't value or "punt" plays.
Value: The cheapest options at the position.

Chalk

Todd Gurley (8200/8800) will continue to carry high ownership in all formats since he is touching the ball just over 22 times per game and plays on 81% of his team's offensive snaps. The Rams are on the road versus Arizona, who ranks 7th in running back aFPA, but we did see Gurley eclipse 20 fantasy points against them in Week 7 thanks to a 22-106-1 rushing line and 4-58 receiving.
Jamaal Williams (4700/5700) being chalky or not will all depend on the status of Ty Montgomery (ribs ) and Aaron Jones (knee) missing another game. Williams has touched the ball a total of 68 times over the past three games, with 9 of those being receptions. He carries decent touchdown equity, as he has handled 3 touches inside the 5-yard line during that span. Williams ranks as our top value running back on the slate this week. He'll face the Buccaneers, who rank 21st in running back aFPA and are allowing an average of 0.82 touchdowns per game to the position. Update (Dec. 3): Montgomery was put on injured reserve, but Jones is expected to be active. Williams is still expected to get "most" of the work.
Leonard Fournette (7800/8700) has an easy matchup at home this week versus the Colts, who rank 30th in running back aFPA and are allowing an average of 0.84 touchdowns per game to opposing running backs. Fournette’s snap rate is a tad concerning—just 57.44% on the season—but he is still touching the ball 22 times per game. Also, his Jaguars are large home favorites and carry a 25-point implied team total, which gives Fournette a lot of touchdown equity this week.