DFS Kicker and DST Analysis: Wild Card Edition

Jan 03, 2018

I'm Justin Bailey. Each week I’ll provide 4for4 DFS subscribers with an in-depth breakdown of the upside and downside of the defenses and kickers on the main slate. For those of you who don't know me, I've been analyzing DFS since 2014. My analysis in this space will include how to approach each of the chalk options, along with how options at the various salary tiers fit into overall roster construction. Ultimately, this piece will provide objective analysis to help guide you through the process of finding safe choices for cash games and high-leverage choices for GPPs.

Chalk DSTs

On a four-game slate, most plays are going to carry a lot of ownership. The Jaguars and Chiefs project to be the highest-owned defenses this weekend as they have inferior matchups compared to the other teams. If you’re playing cash games, I’d prefer the cash options to come from one of these two defenses.

The Jacksonville Jaguars ($5,600/$4,400) are tied as the largest favorites this week (-8.5 points) and have the best matchup as the Bills rank 23rd in defensive aFPA. The Bills have a slate-low 15.5-point implied team total, and the Jaguars rank second in Football Outsiders’ adjusted sack rate—giving them one of the best floors on the slate.
The Kansas City Chiefs ($3,400/$4.800) come in as 8.5-point favorites against a Titans team with an implied team total of 18 points, the second-lowest total on the slate. They’re in a good spot overall as the Titans have the ninth-highest turnover rate among offenses and the Chiefs have a top-10 turnover rate. Kansas City also hasn’t allowed more than 21 points at home since Week 1 of 2016.