Marvin Jones: A Must-Draft At His ADP

I’ve spent a lot of time -- too much time, many are saying -- trying to come up with a fantasy roster construction approach in which Lions receiver Marvin Jones doesn’t fit.

I came up empty. Jones fits every approach except the one where you intentionally draft a bad team -- a bold strategy, Cotton.

Recapping Marvin Jones' 2019

It was only last fall that Jones saw a hefty 7.5 targets per game for the season’s first half before Matthew Stafford suffered a season-ending injury, sending Detroit’s 2019 campaign into the depths. And yes, Jones’ fantasy numbers got a big boost from his Week 6 10-catch, four-touchdown explosion against the Vikings, but we shouldn’t let that obscure the kind of opportunity he had -- and will have -- in an offense that pumped out plenty of juicy fantasy outcomes while Stafford was under center.

It’s tough to overstate just how bad the Lions’ offense was post-Stafford. Their yards per drive plummeted from 2.2 to 1.4 after Stafford’s injury and their passing yards per game dropped by nearly 100 yards. With a red-hot Stafford, the Lions were pacing toward 38 passing scores; without him, that pace fell to 17. Lions quarterbacks not named Stafford threw for eight touchdowns in his half-season absence. Mind melting stuff.

What's in Store for Marvin Jones in 2020?

Assuming Stafford is ready to do what he’s done for most of his career and play 16 games, it wouldn’t require anything resembling Jones’ best-case scenario for the team’s No. 2 wideout to prove value in 2020. Just look at the 4for4 ADP Bargain tool: John Paulsen has Jones ranked 21 spots higher than his current draft spot. He’s being taken as the WR39 while 4for4 has Jones set as the WR29.

It’s not a hard sell. When Stafford went down, Jones was the WR18, a mere 10 fantasy points behind Detroit alpha receiver Kenny Golladay. But opportunity should be our primary concern, and Jones saw plenty of chances with Stafford last season. He had 47 targets through Stafford’s eight games in 2019 while Golladay had 55. It’s the kind of disparity -- or lack thereof -- that could help one talk oneself into Jones leading the team in targets in 2020. Almost.

And there’s the added bonus of opposing secondaries shading toward Golladay’s side of the field, or outright focusing on the Lions’ big, fast downfield threat. That leaves Jones in an enviable position with a quarterback who has had success throwing his way: while Stafford has a sparkling 10.2 adjusted yards per attempt when throwing to Golladay, his A/YA when throwing to Jones is 9.74. Again, hardly a disparity at all.

Seasons that include four-touchdown blowup games, like Jones’ 2019, turn players into prime touchdown regression candidates. Here’s the thing: Jones’ 9.8% touchdowns rate last season was somehow, someway 2.9% lower than this career touchdown rate.

Maybe we shouldn’t bank on a lot more touchdowns for Jones in 2020, but we shouldn’t project him for fewer scores either. It’s always a comfort knowing a receiver’s prior-year production didn’t hinge on a career-high spike in touchdown scoring. It’s regression as a warm blanket. Go ahead, cuddle it.

Jones profiles as a must-have in the ninth or 10th round of a 12-team league for fantasy players who love them some early-round running backs. Likely he would end up as your WR3 -- someone you could confidently plug into the lineup if your precious running backs weren’t firing on all cylinders. For those spending early draft picks on wideouts, a top tight end, and maybe Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes, Jones could be your WR4 or WR5, someone who would offer tremendous volume-based depth if your league requires three starting receivers and a flex spot.

Take a peek at players being drafted around Jones right now and you’ll find backup running backs, runners on the wrong side of a timeshare backfield, and receivers who might be the third or fourth pass-catching option on their own team. Then there’s Jones, with his depressed ADP that offers quite a bit of cushion and his role as the No. 2 (possible No. 1B) option on a Detroit passing offense that shredded secondaries last season when at full capacity.