Week 17 NFL Betting Picks: Player Props

Jan 02, 2021

Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

Week 16 Recap: Week 16 was another moneymaker as we went 15-9, adding another 5.61 units to the bank. We are now up over 33 units on props alone this season. What’s crazy is that with a little luck, last week could have been nuclear. Both Calvin Ridley and Darren Waller recorded five receptions, one short of hitting the over. Chase Claypool lost his under on the last drive, as the Steelers fell into significant negative game script and Ben Roethlisberger took the game into his own hands, throwing the ball 49 times. We’ll probably go back to that under in the playoffs as Claypool only saw six targets on 49 pass attempts (12.2% target share) and has seen his usage decrease the past few weeks.

Week 17 is a weird one, with some teams resting players, and others in do-or-die situations. Fellow 4for4 writer Jen Eakins did a great job covering which teams are motivated and which aren’t. This is a great primer for anyone starting their research this week. The props column this week is going to be a little light because so many plays will depend on who is active. Sportsbooks haven’t released very many props at this point and are scared of getting burned.

We made it possible for our subscribers to receive push notifications to their phone or computer whenever I post a play. To access this feature on Discord, go to “Role Assign” and hit the money bag sign under the “Weekly Prop Plays” post! This is going to be especially crucial this week. Prior to posting this, our subscribers in the Discord were able to get down on Ty Montgomery anytime touchdown at +300 after the Saints announced their entire RB room would be out due to close contact COVID tracing from Alvin Kamara. The game still has to be played but Montgomery is going to see almost all of the running back touches and this line will likely end up closer to +150. Alright, on to Week 17...

Week 17 BetMGM Player Prop Bets

David Montgomery Under 3.5 receptions (-105)

This is also available at William Hill for -110 or DraftKings for -125, but BetMGM currently offers the best price. We have David Montgomery projected for 2.7 receptions here. Since Tarik Cohen's season-ending injury, Montgomery has only eclipsed 3.5 receptions in 5-of-11 starts. With Mitch Trubisky at quarterback and Cohen out, that is narrowed down to just 2-of-6 games. Four receptions is toward the top end of Montgomery’s range of outcomes here—2-3 receptions is much more likely.

Risk: 1.05 units to win 1 unit