Week 16 Lookahead Lines

Dec 18, 2020

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The 2020 NFL season has flown by, evidenced by this being the final article of the season. Last week, I gave out Rams -13.5, which was an easy winner for us as the line is now up to -17 in most spots. I gave out Raiders -3.5, which is a push, as it was -3 some of the week and -3.5 other parts of the week. Lastly, I gave out Giants +3.5, which was another loss. Daniel Jones was much more injured than most people thought and now he's dealing with a new calf injury suffered during the Cardinals game, leaving him doubtful to play against the Browns. As always, you can find these lines on FanDuel. I am having a tough time with Week 16 lines, but I do have something else at the end of this article for Week 17 and beyond.

Colts @ Steelers (-2, -115)

These teams have been interesting over the last four weeks. Let’s start with the Colts. For most of the year, this team was known for their defensive stellar play and lackluster offense. Over the last three weeks, the offense has really turned it on with Jonathan Taylor and T.Y. Hilton. The Colts put up 44 points in Week 14 versus the Raiders, 26 points against the Texans in Week 13 and 34 points in Week 12 versus the Packers. Philip Rivers and Co. have really turned a corner on offense.

Playing three games in 11 days has really thrown the Steelers out of sorts. They should have beat the Washington Football Team but gave up 13 points in the fourth quarter, and the injuries finally caught up to them in Week 14 versus the Bills. This once-mighty Steelers defense has lost Devin Bush and Bud Dupree to injuries, plus the back-end wasn’t very good to start with but went unnoticed because of their pass rush. That is now gone with the loss of Dupree. The Steelers can’t/won’t run the ball because they really can’t—and they know it. That is fine and dandy but their wide receivers need to catch the ball more and drop it less—especially Diontae Johnson, who was sent to the bench last week.

The Steelers get an extra day of rest they sorely needed against a lowly Bengals team who rarely score outside of fluky plays (kickoff returns, blown coverages, garbage time, etc.) and I expect the Steelers to win handly here. Meanwhile, the Colts play the Texans and I expect them to take care of business. At a number of -2 for the Steelers, I am not sure who wins, but I do know this number seems low because the Steelers are not playing so well over the last three weeks or so. We are under the key number of three and the Colts offer a fantastic teaser opportunity. The winner seems like they will be the team with the ball last here.

Pick: Steelers -2

Titans @ Packers (-4, -110)

I whiffed on the Titans this year. I didn’t think this team would be good but I was wrong. This team is good (or better than I thought) this season but they have serious issues, particularly on the defensive end versus one of the baddest men on the planet playing quarterback. The Packers are motivated to win this game. Why? Because they own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Saints. If the Packers beat the Panthers this week, as many of us expect them to, and the Saints lose to the Chiefs, they would have a 1.5 game lead over the Saints for the No. 1 seed. In Week 16, if the Packers win and the Saints beat the Vikings, then the No. 1 seed would go to the Packers.

How do you beat the Packers over the last year-and-a-half? Last year, they lost to the 49ers twice, and the Eagles. This year, they lost to the Bucs, the Colts and the Vikings, who ran all over the Packers. You need a good defense who can get pressure and a good quarterback to score. The Titans can’t get pressure at all and the Titans currently own the tiebreaker over the Colts for the division (best record versus division). The Titans don’t need to necessarily win this game to win the division. Lastly, I am getting worried about Derrick Henry. Yes, he is a difference-maker and does well later in the year, but that will come at a cost. Henry currently has 297 attempts on the year, after 303 last year. The Titans are trying to get him to 2,000 yards for the year, meaning he needs to average 150 or so yards per game over the next three weeks. My concern for him is he will get tired as he did versus the Chiefs last year when he couldn’t do anything in the AFC Championship game. Stop Henry and you force the Titans to throw—and I am not sure if the Titans can do that so well. I think the Packers should be closer to a touchdown than a field goal.

Pick: Packers -4

Week 17 and Beyond

Last week I wrote about paying a point spread tax on favorites to win so they can make the playoffs for Week 17. I am saying it again: Be super careful laying extra points because a team has to win to make the playoffs in Week 17. The next thing you need to watch out for is the Week 16 “dream crusher.” This simply means if your goal is to make the playoffs (or whatever your goal is) then you come out super flat and just mail it in the following game. Who does that apply to at the moment? The Las Vegas Raiders. They are currently 7-7, they play the Dolphins next, who also need to win, and now Derek Carr has a groin injury that could sideline him. If the Raiders lose next week against the Dolphins, this team has no reason to try hard for Week 17. Nine-win teams make the Wild Card spot a little over 66% of the time under the seven-team format. At eight wins, it is only approximately 21%. This same principle also applies to the Vikings and Bears for next week because they both sit at 6-7 and both need to win out to make the playoffs.

The playoffs and Super Bowl are different betting animals. Do you bet for fun or do you bet to make money? If you bet for fun, ignore the rest of this article and play responsibly. If you bet to make money, be extremely aware of your volume on sides and totals. With fewer games on the board, the numbers for sides and totals become extremely sharp and efficient. If you are betting normally five-to-eight sides and totals every week, that means you would be betting almost 50% or more on the 12 sides and totals on Wild Card weekend. The sharps make the market very efficient and extremely fast, scaling down the volume you do for these plays unless you still think the number is off.

The best approach to betting the Super Bowl is to attack the huge volume of props that seem to get bigger every year. I would just stay away from the sides and totals completely and dive hard into the prop market because that will be the place to make more money.

I want to thank everyone who read these articles over the season, as it was an honor to write for 4for4. I'd like to wish everyone the best of luck in your betting adventures. If you want to bet some more and are looking for extra advice, you can find me on Twitter @DanRivera228. One of the best opportunities to make money is the NFL Draft, which I love nerding out on, so tweet at me.