Players to Avoid in Every Round of Fantasy Football Drafts

Aug 04, 2021

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For the last few months, the world has been returning to some semblance of normalcy. And while that might be threatened in some areas, what remains safe is the prospect of upcoming fantasy football drafts. August is the time of year when crunch-time hits, rankings shift, and we all make the fateful picks come draft day that will hopefully carry our team to fantasy football glory.

Other Useful Articles and Tools: Players to Target Every Round | Rankings | PPR Targets | Second-Year Targets

With that in mind, as I’ve done for a few years now, I took it upon myself in this article to go round-by-round, highlighting one of the players I’m avoiding in that round. The players listed below are not the ONLY players to avoid at that given ADP. However, either based on 4for4’s tools and analysis, my own personal preference, or some other factor, they are players unlikely to find a home on my fantasy teams at that draft price. I skipped Round 1 because for the most part, it’s pretty chalky, and I skipped the last few rounds (of standard-length drafts) as those should be reserved for kickers and defenses. ADP was based on 4for4’s ADP tool. For more ADP bargains, check out the ADP Bargain tool.

Round 2 – QB Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

There is nothing wrong with Patrick Mahomes’ game, or drafting him in fantasy football. In fact, he’s technically a bargain based on his 4for4 ranking (12th overall) and his current ADP (19th overall). I’m including him here as an opportunity to opine about the advantages of waiting to draft a quarterback. If you’re reading this article, chances are you know that old adage, but for newer or more casual players, as long as you’re playing in a traditional one-quarterback, standard-scoring league, it is more advantageous to take a quarterback later, or at least deeper in the draft than Rounds 1 or 2. Part of the issue, as Chris Allen highlighted in his primer on drafting quarterbacks last year, is that many of the stats that create an elite quarterback season and vault said passer into the early rounds are difficult to repeat and likely to regress.

Touchdown passes and touchdown rate had the lowest correlations and highest variations from year to year. Those stats are often the difference between an average starting quarterback season (say, Kirk Cousins, the QB11 from 2020 with 35 touchdowns) and an elite one (reigning QB1 Josh Allen, who combined for 45 touchdowns on the ground and through the air). Now, on the flip side, you are paying for some safety by taking a quarterback early. Other early-ish round quarterbacks from last year like Patrick Mahomes (QB4 finish), Lamar Jackson (QB10 finish) and Russell Wilson (QB6 finish) all delivered solid seasons. There’s far more nuance that should go into this discussion than one paragraph, but hopefully, this will help deter you from reaching on a quarterback early, and encourage you to read more content on 4for4 to understand why.