Breakout Receiver Model: Week 5

Oct 07, 2021

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The 2021 Breakout Receiver Model is back for Week 5 after a triumphant Week 4, where many of the model's top recommended players had season-best performances. Let's dig into the model's hits and misses, and check out the recommendations for the week ahead.

About the Breakout Receiver Model

The 4for4 data science team, in conjunction with our award-winning projections expert John Paulsen, have recalibrated and reconfigured the receiver "buy-low" model from years past in order to better identify under-performing wide receivers and tight ends who might be on the verge of a breakout performance. For the uninitiated, the breakout receiver model utilizes historical data and recent player performance to help determine players who have received opportunity that is typically more valuable than their recent production would indicate. This particular model's features include air yards and routes-run data as a means of determining opportunity. It also utilizes a proprietary efficiency metric that looks back at the past 10 weeks of individual player performance, all to better help predict the likelihood of a bounce-back in a player's future production. The model most heavily-weights the last three weeks of data.

Last Week's Results

The model performed admirably this past week, with 63% of the underperforming players reaching their expected fantasy points in Week 4. On average, players outperformed their expected production by 36%.

Hits

Week 4 Breakout Receiver Model, Hits
Player	Position	Team	XFP - Last 3	Next Week	Diff.
DeVante Parker	WR	MIA	12.7	15.7	3
Jakobi Meyers	WR	NE	12.6	12.8	0.2
DeVonta Smith	WR	PHI	12.3	15.7	3.4
Mike Gesicki	TE	MIA	11.2	14.2	3
Kenny Golladay	WR	NYG	11	14.6	3.6
Kalif Raymond	WR	DET	8.4	18.1	9.7
Darnell Mooney	WR	CHI	8.2	16	7.8
Jared Cook	TE	LAC	8.2	16	7.8
Hunter Henry	TE	NE	7	11.2	4.2

DeVante Parker had his best game of the season, catching multiple passes of 20-plus air yards from Jacoby Brissett. Parker should have the downfield role to himself for the foreseeable future with Will Fuller placed on IR. DeVonta Smith also managed to find the end zone in the Eagles’ 45-30 loss to the Chiefs. Stefon Diggs just barely misses the cut here, performing right in line with his expected fantasy points, and outscoring his 2021 average by three-plus points in the Bills' 41-0 rout of the Texans.

Misses

Week 4 Breakout Receiver Model, Misses
Player	Pos	Team	XFP - Last 3	Next Week	Diff.
Darren Waller	TE	LV	17.6	13	-4.6
Emmanuel Sanders	WR	BUF	13.8	10.6	-3.2
D.J. Chark	WR	JAX	13.7	0	-13.7
Michael Pittman	WR	IND	12.9	8.9	-4
Courtland Sutton	WR	DEN	12.1	6.2	-5.9
Nelson Agholor	WR	NE	11.7	7.4	-4.3
Sammy Watkins	WR	BAL	11.6	6.9	-4.7
Mark Andrews	TE	BAL	10.5	9.2	-1.3
Bryan Edwards	WR	LV	9.7	0.9	-8.8
Kyle Pitts	TE	ATL	9	7	-2
Robby Anderson	WR	CAR	8.9	7.4	-1.5
Dyami Brown	WR	WAS	8	2.4	-5.6
David Njoku	TE	CLE	6.8	2.7	-4.1
Dan Arnold	TE	JAX	6.1	3.9	-2.2
Jack Doyle	TE	IND	5.7	2.9	-2.8
Eric Ebron	TE	PIT	5.5	1.8	-3.7
Cole Kmet	TE	CHI	5.2	1.1	-4.1

Derek Carr came back to earth during Monday night’s loss to the division rival Chargers, and now has two receivers who landed in the underperformer category in Darren Waller and Bryan Edwards. The Ravens won handily in Denver Sunday, and lead the league in yards per pass play, but both Sammy Watkins and Mark Andrews managed to whiff last week. That’s football for you.