Running Back Market Shares: Week 15 Report
In the modern NFL, the running back is no longer the focal point of an offense. Gone are the days where a 400-touch rusher is the norm, and now is the age of the running back-by-committee. With carries and targets being diluted between backs more than ever, it’s important for fantasy managers to know which backs are seeing usage and how they’re being utilized.
This column will explore the landscape of running back rushing and receiving through team market shares – the percent of a team’s running back rushes or the team’s passing targets. By looking at these rates of usage rather than raw totals, we help to strip away some of the noise of game script and pare our data down to the truer representation of how each offense thinks about its backfield.
Without any further ado, let’s ring the bell and open the markets: which running backs had a significant change in usage in Week 14?
Carries
| Player | Team | Week 13 | Week 14 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Wilson | SF | 0.0% | 100.0% | +100.0% |
| Alvin Kamara | NO | 0.0% | 81.8% | +81.8% |
| Dalvin Cook | MIN | 0.0% | 81.8% | +81.8% |
| Melvin Gordon III | DEN | 0.0% | 61.5% | +61.5% |
| Craig Reynolds | DET | 0.0% | 57.9% | +57.9% |
| Jamaal Williams | DET | 70.8% | 0.0% | -70.8% |
| Alexander Mattison | MIN | 91.7% | 18.2% | -73.5% |
| Tevin Coleman | NYJ | 84.6% | 0.0% | -84.6% |
| Elijah Mitchell | SF | 100.0% | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| Mark Ingram | NO | 100.0% | 0.0% | -100.0% |
Craig Reynolds, Detroit Lions, +57.9% running back rushing share
A surprise holiday present for fantasy managers in the final game of their regular season, the Detroit Lions rolled out former undrafted free agent out of some place called “Kutztown”, Craig Reynolds. Stars D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams were ailing and ruled out, rookie Jermar Jefferson was dealing with sickness and an ankle injury and therefore just an emergency option, and converted safety Godwin Igwebuike struggled with ball security issues. That meant Reynolds immediately stepped into a role with the majority of the backfield rushes, while also seeing 5.7% of the team’s passing targets. Reynolds almost came away from this game with 100 scrimmage yards, posting 10.9 half-PPR fantasy points. He could be a season-saver for fantasy teams, given that Swift and Williams have both begun Week 15’s practice week with “DNP” designations.
Corey Clement, Dallas Cowboys, +50.0%
Speaking of banged-up backfields, the Dallas Cowboys have known for a while that star Ezekiel Elliott isn’t 100% healthy. Recently, however, receiving specialist and backup Tony Pollard tore his plantar fascia (translation for non-medical people like me: oh no, ow, and also yuck). Pollard has returned to Cowboys practices to begin Week 15, but his injury could (and probably should) prevent him from playing in their game this week. Corey Clement stepped up in his absence and saw half of the Dallas running back rushes, adding one catch and totaling 46 yards from scrimmage. Sure, Dallas was up big for half of the game, but that could happen in the waning weeks of the season again. If the Cowboys end up resting Zeke and Pollard still isn’t right, it will be the Clement show once more.
Royce Freeman, Houston Texans, +26.9%
The increase in rushing usage isn’t even the highly compelling part of Royce Freeman’s note this week. The Houston Texans’ newest flavor of the week rushed 11 times (good) for 15 yards (yikes), but he also made six catches for 51 yards. I keep desperately hoping one player can hold onto the lead role in this backfield, and Freeman is the newest target of this hope. He has the workload a fantasy manager dreams of this time of year; can he improve his efficiency on the ground and prove worthy of maintaining that going forward?
Jaret Patterson, Washington Football Team, +18.2%
The Washington Football Team is all over the place right now with backfield usage, thanks to J.D. McKissic’s injury status and the team still wildly vacillating on Antonio Gibson’s usage. Still, that opens up some potential for increased auditions for rookie Jaret Patterson, who did flash strong rushing value in college. When given opportunities, the rookie has performed efficiently and effectively. Perhaps he can parlay this five-touch, 38-yard performance into greater usage.
Targets
| Player | Team | Week 13 | Week 14 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | NO | 0.0% | 25.0% | +25.0% |
| Mike Davis | ATL | 10.3% | 23.1% | +12.8% |
| Devin Singletary | BUF | 0.0% | 12.5% | +12.5% |
| Royce Freeman | HST | 3.7% | 15.6% | +11.9% |
| Samaje Perine | CIN | 5.3% | 15.6% | +10.4% |
| Javonte Williams | DEN | 21.2% | 8.0% | -13.2% |
| Antonio Gibson | WAS | 20.0% | 6.3% | -13.8% |
| Travis Homer | SEA | 13.9% | 0.0% | -13.9% |
| James Robinson | JAX | 14.8% | 0.0% | -14.8% |
| Saquon Barkley | NYG | 24.3% | 9.1% | -15.2% |
Mike Davis, Atlanta Falcons, +12.8% team target share
It remains difficult to trust the Atlanta Falcons’ usage of Mike Davis – it’s not your fault, Mike; we’ve just been hurt before – but this performance marks a straight month where the veteran running back has seen four or more targets in every game. It didn’t hurt that Qadree Ollison fumbled and the Falcons rested Cordarrelle Patterson late in the game, affording Davis his first double-digit rush game since Week 5. Still, no one in PPR leagues will be complaining if Davis can sustain this level of receiving work through the fantasy playoffs. Maybe – just maybe – it’s time for us to open our hearts and risk getting hurt again.
JaMycal Hasty, San Francisco 49ers, +8.1%
The San Francisco 49ers’ backfield depth chart is stuffed with so many injured players right now, it looks like the aftermath of a John Wick fight scene. One of the few survivors of the myriad injuries plaguing the Niners’ backs is JaMycal Hasty, who had himself suffered a high-ankle sprain early in the season. In relief of Elijah Mitchell (concussion, hand, knee), Hasty, Jeff Wilson, and even star receiver Deebo Samuel covered the backfield work in Week 14. Hasty saw no rushing work, but his three targets do indicate that he is the preferred receiving back (outside of dual-threat Samuel). Hasty is a must-roster handcuff to Wilson and Samuel this time of year in fantasy leagues with room for bench depth, as his role would expand greatly if one of them fell victim to another malady.
James Conner, Arizona Cardinals, +5.8%
I think it’s fair to not have assumed at all that this is what we would be getting out of James Conner’s one-year deal with the Arizona Cardinals. Over the last five weeks, the 26-year-old thumper has averaged over five targets per contest, including nine catches on nine targets for 94 yards this past week. Things are trending positively for injured scatback Chase Edmonds to return in Week 15 or 16, but that doesn’t necessarily mean the Cardinals will return to the 50/50 split they had employed earlier in 2021. In fact, with Arizona currently in pole position for the top seed in the NFC playoffs, it’s entirely possible they continue to take it slow with Edmonds’ recovery timeline. As long as that happens, Conner is a one-man wrecking crew ready to blow up for fantasy lineups everywhere.
James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars, -14.8%
If Atlanta’s deployment of Mike Davis is inexplicable, then it’s nigh-impossible to comprehend what the Jacksonville Jaguars are doing with James Robinson. Despite getting shellacked by division rivals this week, the Jaguars didn’t throw Robinson’s way once. His rushing work has dwindled to nearly nothing, and now he doesn’t even have the built-in receiving value of a bad team playing catch-up to give him the illusion of a fantasy floor. Somehow, even with all of Robinson’s innate talent, this backfield has become arguably the worst in the NFL for fantasy football.
Goal-Line Work
| Player | Team | Week 13 | Week 14 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | KC | 0.0% | 100.0% | +100.0% |
| Alvin Kamara | NO | 0.0% | 100.0% | +100.0% |
| Melvin Gordon | DEN | 0.0% | 75.0% | +75.0% |
| Austin Ekeler | LAC | 100.0% | 20.0% | -80.0% |
| Devonta Freeman | BAL | 100.0% | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| Zack Moss | BUF | 100.0% | 0.0% | -100.0% |
Jonathan Williams, Washington Football Team, +100.0% running back goal-line share
Things got weird, woolly, and wild in Washington’s Week 14 adventure. After going down big early, they seemed to pack things in and turn the keys over to the backups. That led to the aforementioned Jaret Patterson’s touches, but it also meant depth chart RB5 Jonathan Williams saw five chances as well. He turned those five chances into 35 scrimmage yards and a touchdown, with three of them coming inside the opposing 10-yard line. He averaged 3.3 yards on those carries and punched into the end zone on one of them. It’s possible Williams’ strong relief performance earned a greater look down the stretch, but it’s hard to take too much out of this game.
Melvin Gordon, Denver Broncos, +75.0%
Rumors of veteran Denver Broncos running back Melvin Gordon’s fantasy demise were greatly exaggerated. Week 14’s blowup performance was Gordon’s first 100-yard game since Week 1, and his first multi-touchdown game since Week 8. Part of his scoring prowess came from his eye-popping six goal-line opportunities, which resulted in 12 yards and a score. Despite up-and-down performances over his last six outings, Gordon remains an integral part of the Broncos’ backfield plan and rookie Javonte Williams’ usage peer.
