Week 16 NFL Pick'em and Survivor Pool Picks
It’s another wild week in the NFL with a lot of players on the reserve/COVID-19 list, but it also features many games with large spreads. With no more bye weeks, there are plenty of contests to choose from.
With the help of TeamRankings' customizable tools and data, I’ll go over the best value picks for Week 16, along with the top suggestions for survivor pools. With this info, you should be able to make smart decisions in order to get back on track or keep you going if you’ve had a strong season thus far.
Editor’s Note: TeamRankings subscribers win football pools three times as often as expected, thanks to customized picks designed for your pool's size and rules. No one else does it.
Week 15 Recap
For the third straight week, my picks went 5-0, as the Dolphins, 49ers, Eagles, Cowboys and Texans all came out with wins in Week 15. That makes my full-season total 53-22 for this column.
Let’s keep it rolling for Week 16.
Favorite Favorites
Dallas Cowboys vs. Football Team
The Washington Football Team is on a very short week and the Cowboys' defense has been playing particularly well. Dallas is an 11-point favorite in this contest—the largest on the Week 16 slate—with TeamRankings win odds of 85%.
Public bettors are also rolling with the Cowboys 95% of the time, so you’ll win or lose with most of your pool mates.
Green Bay Packers vs. Browns
Green Bay is 6-0 straight up this season at home and they get a Browns team not only ravaged by COVID-19 but also playing on a short week. Both Vegas and TeamRankings have the Packers’ odds of winning at 77%, with the spread currently set at 7.5 points.
This game could be closer than some think due to Green Bay’s own share of injury issues, but the Packers should win, and 97% of the public agrees.
Sensibly-Priced Favorite
Seattle Seahawks vs. Bears
The home team is a 6.5-point favorite with Vegas odds currently set at 72% in favor of the Seahawks. Public bettors are behind Seattle 92% of the time, which is high, but lower than games with similar spreads like Green Bay (97%) and the Chargers (97%).
Both teams have a short week but Seattle is less of a disaster than the Bears are currently.
Value Favorite
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Ravens
This contest has the Bengals favored by 2.5-points at home with just 55% win odds via Vegas. Public bettors are taking Cincy only 64% of the time, which presents some value.
The Bengals won the first time these two teams met this season, and the Ravens are even more depleted now. Tyler Huntley has filled in nicely for Lamar Jackson, but their secondary is decimated and Joe Burrow will take advantage.
Upset Gamble
Indianapolis Colts @ Cardinals
Indy is a road underdog by one point in this contest, with just 49% win odds via TeamRankings. Arizona is coming off a humiliating loss to the Lions and is just 1-2 since their Week 12 bye. Their defense may not have an answer for Jonathan Taylor on Saturday night and we could be in for an upset.
The public is picking the Colts only 47% of the time so there’s a chance to get ahead with this one.
Survivor Picks for Week 16
Win Odds: Top 5 Week 16 Picks
Stating the obvious here, but higher is better when it comes to win odds. Everything else being equal, you want to pick the team with the best likelihood of making it through.
Here are the five safest teams this week, according to the TeamRankings Data Grid model (chances to win in parentheses):
- Dallas Cowboys vs. Football Team (81%, 11-point favorites)
- Philadelphia Eagles vs. Giants (80%, 10-point favorites)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Panthers (80%, 10-favorites)
- Kansas City Chiefs vs. Steelers (80%, 10-point favorites)
- L.A. Chargers @ Texans (79%, 9.5-point favorites)
Pick Popularity
Diversifying your survivor picks from the crowd is an advantageous strategy, as the pool winnings can increase significantly if your pick hits and another popular pick loses.
Here are the five most popular survivor picks for Week 16 (referencing Data Grid mentioned earlier):
- L.A. Chargers @ Texans (36%)
- Philadelphia Eagles vs. Giants (15%)
- Atlanta Falcons vs. Lions (9%)
- New Orleans Saints vs. Dolphins (9%)
- Seattle Seahawks vs. Bears (7%)
Future Value
The last piece of the survivor pool puzzle is future value. If you fire off a powerful team in Week 16, you won’t be able to use them later.
According to TeamRankings, here are the top five teams in future value entering this week for a 100-entry standard rules pool:
- Buffalo Bills (2.6)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2.2)
- New England Patriots (1.5)
- Indianapolis Colts (1.5)
- Green Bay Packers (1.1)
Note: The numbers in parentheses are a proprietary rating of future value found in the TeamRankings Data Grid, which is also impacted by factors such as pool size.
Get Customized Picks For Your Pool: Pick'em | Survivor
TeamRankings has released a book on Survivor Pool Strategy, check out the e-version by clicking here.
