Week 16 PrizePicks Props
Each week during the NFL season I scour through the PrizePicks Over/Under projections and compare them to 4for4's projections to highlight a few value plays. If you're not familiar with PrizePicks, they offer pick’em situations involving player stats and fantasy points. To complete an entry, select two or more options for your chance to win money up to triple your entry cost. More information on rules can be found here.
Do not forget to check out the 4for4 PrizePicks Tool! See what I see and make picks beyond what I list each week.
Week 15 Record: 3-4
Season Record: 65-44
Put Week 15 on the naughty list.
Week 16 Prop Picks
Saquon Barkley Under 53.5 Rushing Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 50.9 Rushing Yards
Saquon Barkley put up 40 rushing yards against this same Eagles defense in Week 13. Since Week 11, only Mark Ingram has surpassed 60 rushing yards against Philly. Antonio Gibson was bottled up by the Eagles last week, and he is a much better (and healthier) back than Barkley at this point. Devontae Booker is also cutting into Barkley’s carries and producing—Booker is averaging 6.12 yards per carry since New York’s bye, while Barkley is averaging 3.92 yards.
James Robinson Over 75.5 Rushing Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 80.9 Rushing Yards
James Robinson gets the Jets in Week 16. I could just stop there but you are reading for the #content. The Jets have allowed three 100-yard rushers since Week 11 and are allowing an average of 128.4 rushing yards per game over that span. Duke Johnson was resurrected from the fantasy grave last week with his 107-yard performance! Even the back he replaced, Myles Gaskin, produced 89 yards in Week 11 against the Jets. To explain in a phrase my two kids under five will understand: “The Jets defense is boo boo.”
Cordarrelle Patterson Over 47.5 Rushing Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 53.9 Rushing Yards
The Lions have allowed an average of 106.75 rushing yards per game over the past month with their best effort coming against David Montgomery (46 rush yards in Week 12). Cordarrelle Patterson’s 18 rush yards in Week 15 were his fewest since Week 10, a span in which he had at least 58 yards on the ground in three straight games. The Lions are also expected to start Tim Boyle, making it more likely that the Falcons can get a lead and run out the clock rushing the ball.
Joe Burrow Over 21.5 Pass Completions
- 4for4 Projection: 22.7 Pass Completions
Joe Burrow has at least 22 completions in six-of-seven home games and he gets one of the better run defenses in Week 16 with Baltimore coming to town. Joe Mixon has one 100-yard performance against the Ravens in eight tries, which means Burrow might as well throw early and often. The Ravens have allowed eight quarterbacks to complete 22 passes in a game and allow an average of 21.71 completions per game. Baltimore has also allowed 22+ completion games in their last two contests.
Justin Herbert Over 270.5 Passing Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 278.5 Passing Yards
I get that the Houston Texans are bad, but playing a bad team does not mean Justin Herbert can’t/won’t put up numbers. In their eight wins, Herbert is averaging 363.25 passing yards per game. Austin Ekeler is not likely to play because of health and safety protocols, meaning Herbert will more than likely focus on his receivers. Houston is allowing an average of 222.5 yards to opposing wideouts and tight ends per game. Justin Jackson and/or Joshua Kelley are nice running backs, but expecting to be a plug-and-play machine similar to an Alexander Mattison or even Sony Michel is unfair to them, especially with the role Ekeler plays for the Chargers. Herbert has not broken 300 passing yards since Week 13. I think that changes in Week 16.
Drew Lock Over 187.5 Passing Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 239.7 Passing Yards
PrizePicks has a good line here because it is realistic the Broncos can win riding their running back duo if both play. Regardless, Drew Lock threw for 88 yards on 12 attempts when Teddy Bridgewater left because of injury. Lock gets to sling the ball against one of the worst defenses in the NFL in Las Vegas. The Raiders only allow 235 passing yards per game in part because they continue to get gashed on the ground. Vegas just allowed Nick Mullens to throw for 145 yards a few days after joining the Cleveland Browns. Lock is familiar with his offense and gets a full week of practice to hopefully avoid his erratic throwing tendencies.
Courtland Sutton Over 20.5 Receiving Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 45.5 Receiving Yards
It is tough in these PrizePicks streets for one Courtland Sutton. This line factors in Teddy Bridgewater as his quarterback and should be higher based on his career numbers with Drew Lock. In nine games with Lock, Sutton is averaging 13.2 yards per reception and 46.6 yards per game. Sutton is also averaging seven targets per game with Lock. With the Raiders awful against wideouts, another seven-target game is more than plausible. Numbers aside, it would be nice to see Sutton show off his talent for at least one more game this season.
