NFL Playoff Divisional Round PrizePicks Props
Through the postseason, I will continue to pick PrizePicks plays using 4for4’s player projections. If you're not familiar with PrizePicks, they offer pick’em situations involving player stats and fantasy points. To complete an entry, select two or more options for your chance to win money up to triple your entry cost. More information on rules can be found here.
Do not forget to check out the 4for4 PrizePicks tool! See what I see and make picks beyond what I list each week.
Super Wild Card Record: 3-3 (one void)
Season Record: 80-56
Leonard Fournette was not activated from I.R., so his PrizePicks prop did not count. I also drank the Tom Brady and Chase Claypool Kool-Aid.
Divisional Round Picks
Tom Brady Over 1.5 Rushing Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 5.0 Rushing Yards
I’m thirsty! Aaron Donald coming to town and with the Bucs' offensive line having health questions, I expect Tom Brady to be more willing to move in the pocket/take off running if it means shaving second-and-long to third-and-not-as-long. Coverage sacks are just as likely if the Rams get to Brady as L.A.'s front four overpowering Tampa's offensive line, which means Brady has to be on his toes. Tom Brady’s current three-game zero rushing yard streak is his longest of the season (fun fact).
Patrick Mahomes Over 20.5 Rushing Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 21.4 Rushing Yards
If you have checked out the NFL betting channel in the 4for4 Discord, you know betting over on QB rushing totals is en vogue. Patrick Mahomes has gone over this benchmark in three straight games and in four of his last seven since Kansas City’s bye week. Mahomes has also gone over this total in two straight postseason games. Buffalo allowed five quarterbacks to rush for 21+ yards in 2021—Zach Wilson, Mac Jones, Cam Newton, Mahomes (61 yards) and Taylor Heinicke.
Elijah Mitchell Over 74.5 Rushing Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 96.1 Rushing Yards
Strictly on averages, Elijah Mitchell will top this because the Packers have allowed 76.22 rushing yards per game over their last 10 games. Deebo Samuel will get some rushing attempts, but Elijah Mitchell will be leaned on to run the ball, and then run it some more in a cold-weather game. Mitchell has at least 85 rushing yards in the three games since returning from injury, including against a Cowboys run defense that was considered elite.
Aaron Rodgers Under 24.0 Pass Completions
- 4for4 Projection: 23.8 Pass Completitions
Aaron Rodgers has gone over this line twice since Green Bay’s Week 13 bye, and five times total this season. Rodgers is the definition of efficient and as long as the Packers are leading the 49ers (six-point favorites), he should not have to pass a lot.
Allen Lazard Over 35.5 Receiving Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 44.0 Receiving Yards
With Marquez Valdes-Scantling doubtful to play, Allen Lazard will be asked to stretch the field more in Valdes-Scantling's stead. Also, the 49ers' secondary is awful and will be committing a lot of attention to Davante Adams (18 targets, 12 catches in their first matchup). Lazard had one catch for 42 yards against the 49ers in Week 3. He has at least four targets and two catches in five straight games, and at least 45 yards in four of those five contests.
Cooper Kupp Over 95.5 Receiving Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 110.2 Receiving Yards
Congrats to the Cardinals for holding Cooper Kupp to under 95 yards in two of three games this season. Kupp averaged 114.53 yards during the regular season so get your flowers. The Bucs have limited passing attacks and have allowed two receivers to get past 96 yards over the past 10 games. Their opponents over that time are pretty bad with the Bills being the only passing game to fear (sorry Eagles). One more thing to keep in mind is that Tampa's nickel set slot corner, Sean Murphy-Bunting, might miss this game.
Aaron Rodgers Over 5.5 Rushing Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 6.6 Rushing Yards
One more for the road. Aaron Rodgers has at least seven rushing yards in three of five games since their Week 13 bye and has rushed for 8, 30, 0 and 32 yards over his past four postseason games (2020-21). Three QB rushing totals this week, what could go wrong?
