NBA Player Prop Bets: Huerter's Red Hot

This late in the season, making calls on a player prop before knowing the injury status of a teammate or with not a lot of samples without a teammate can become a real task. With a couple of the props today, there is enough consistency in role and volume that a move can be made before there is clarity on the injury. In taking that chance before knowing, extra value can be had. Once the injury status is known, the books will adjust accordingly. While the prop may still be playable, it may not be at the same value as before. That balance of how much the information is worth in a specific case is one of the tougher day-to-day calls to make in sports betting.

To aid in your prep and striking that right balance, make sure to check out 4for4’s Player Prop Tool, Prop Explorer, and become part of the Discord chat. Let’s make it a profitable Sunday.

*Lines accurate at the time of publication.

FanDuel Player Prop Bets (March 20, 2022)

Kevin Huerter Over 12.5 Points (-108)

This season, Kevin Huerter’s performance has mirrored that of the Atlanta Hawks—up and down. As of late, it seems Huerter has found more consistency even with coming off a bad performance in his last time out.

The last game out against the Memphis Grizzlies and their very good perimeter defense did not go how Huerter wanted: 2-11 from the floor. A more forgiving matchup is on deck today, providing Huerter opportunities to get his shots. The New Orleans Pelicans have gone to starting Devonte' Graham and CJ McCollum together in the backcourt—neither is big enough to position up defensively to let their defensive stopper, Herb Jones, possibly check Huerter. That means a plus-matchup after having a combination of Desmond Bane and Dillon Brooks in his face against Memphis. The Pelicans also allow the second-most attempts on above-the-break threes. Huerter has taken 44% of his shots from deep since the All-Star break.

Huerter has gone over this number in five of his last six and six of nine games in March. The average does not wow (12.6) points but it has been feast or famine for Huerter. In the six games he's gone over this prop, he has averaged 15.5 points. In the three games he went under, he averaged 6.7.

Trae Young is questionable for this game but as mentioned above, New Orleans does not have a great starting guard option that could move over to Huerter if Young is out. De’Andre Hunter is too big to try and put CJ McCollum on. Huerter’s shot volume has been very consistent, only having taken fewer than 11 shots in just one game this month. The matchup, shot volume, and possible added volume if Young out makes this prop valuable.

Risk: 1.08 units on FanDuel to win 1 unit. (Playable to o13.5 +105)

Kevon Looney Over 2.5 Assists (-108)

Targeting the Warriors' offense in the first full game Steph Curry will be out may seem like a bold strategy but the consistency, in this case, does not lie.

Since the All-Star break, Kevon Looney has gone over this prop in 9-of-11 games. He has averaged 3.6 assists on 6.0 potential assists in that time. That does also include the two games since Draymond Green has been back—Looney went over in both of those games. In the Warriors' offense, the bigs have a larger play-making responsibility due to Curry, Klay Thompson, and Jordan Poole running off screens as much as they do. Those assists generally come from dribble handoffs with shooters or back cuts by the athletic wing players when so much attention is going to the guards. That does not change as much as you would think with Curry out of the lineup.

In games Curry has missed this season, Looney is averaging 3.0 assists on 5.7 potential assists. They are facing the Spurs, who have been a bottom third of the league defense the last two weeks. With Jakob Poeltl in the lineup, Looney’s minutes should be safe to match big for big. Looney’s consistency, including going over this number in each of his last six games, gives this prop value.

Risk: 1.08 units on FanDuel to win 1 unit. (Playable to -120)

BetMGM Player Prop Bets (March 20, 2022)

Wendell Carter Jr. Over 17.5 Points (+100)

In a juicy nine-game slate, we are going to… Oklahoma City at Orlando?!? Yes, yes, we are. Not without good reason, though, because Wendell Carter Jr. has been playing well. While the focus will be elsewhere, there is value on Carter’s scoring.

In his last five games, Carter has gone over this prop four times, averaging 18.8 points. His shot attempts have gone up in that time frame as well. In the 17 games he played after an injury stint, starting in January, Carter averaged 11.7 shots that resulted in 16.9 points. In the recent five-game stint, Carter is averaging 14.0 shots.

The matchup against the Thunder is a generous one. Oklahoma City is allowing the most points in the league to power forwards by a wide margin over the last two weeks. The added volume, plus-matchup, and an opponent with a lack of size should allow Carter to bully his way to an over.

Risk: 1 unit on BetMGM to win 1 unit. (Playable to -116)

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