NBA Player Prop Bets: Bane's Fire Rises vs. Milwaukee

It’s an eight-game slate today with a lot of questionable tags, as is the custom this late in the season. When deciding what props to play, or games to even dig deep on, the willingness to stomach uncertainty has to be a factor. Sometimes being able to cross a game off early in the process allows more time to dig into other games and find some extra value.

While you are making that determination, make sure to take a look at 4for4’s Player Prop Tool, Prop Explorer and get involved in the Discord chat. Let’s make it a profitable Saturday.

*Betting lines accurate at time of publication

Caesars Player Prop Bets (March 26, 2022)

Desmond Bane Over 3.5 Assists (+105)

With Ja Morant out of the lineup this season, the Memphis Grizzlies have barely blinked, to the tune of winning 16 games and losing only two. Desmond Bane stepping up his play has played a role in that. With Morant out for the next couple of weeks, Bane is already stepping up his playmaking.

Morant has missed four of the last five games. In those games, Bane has averaged 5.8 assists on 8.48 potential assists. When Morant plays, he is so ball-dominant that Bane becomes more of a spot-up shooter adept at attacking a closeout. With Morant out, Bane gets more opportunities to run the offense and show off his playmaking ability.

Today, Memphis has Milwaukee coming to town and the matchup is better than would normally be expected. In the last two weeks, the Bucks' defense has been 17th in the league and they have allowed the fifth-most assists to shooting guards in that time. With Morant out, it would be assumed Jrue Holiday would likely check Bane but Holiday is out for this game, so Bane likely sees Grayson Allen or George Hill. Neither of those should be able to do enough to truly slow Bane down.

The hope in the over will not poison bettor’s souls and the fire should rise around Bane’s assist numbers in this matchup.

Risk: 1 unit on Caesars to win 1.05 units. (Playable to -120)

BetMGM Player Prop Bets (March 26, 2022)

Nikola Jokic Over 2.5 Steals + Blocks (+105)

When thinking about the reasons Nikola Jokic won an MVP and is a front-runner for another, his ability to force turnovers is not the first that comes to mind, but he has been prolific at it, especially as of late. In the month of March, Jokic is averaging 3.1 steals plus blocks, up from 2.1 previous to March. He has gone over this prop in seven of the 11 games this month and in five of his last six.

It is a plus matchup as the tanking Oklahoma City Thunder head to Denver. The Thunder have the fifth-highest turnover rate in the last two weeks. In the last six games where Jokic has gone over this prop five times, five of those teams were not ranked in the top 10 of turning the ball over. Add in that Oklahoma City is taking the sixth-highest percentage of shots at the rim and that means more of the action will get to Jokic at the basket.

Risk: 1 unit on BetMGM to win 1.05 units. (Playable to -116)

FanDuel Player Prop Bets (March 26, 2022)

Dejounte Murray Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (+240)

This is an alt line, so only half-a-unit play. Dejounte Murray has been more willing to pull from deep in the last few games, going over this prop in three of his last four games. One of those was against today’s opponent, the New Orleans Pelicans.

The Pelicans have allowed the fifth-most shots from three the last two weeks and in the matchup six days ago, Murray made three threes on eight attempts. New Orleans has been burned on the perimeter by penetrating guards due to Devonte' Graham and CJ McCollum not being noted defenders. As a result, they have done their best to play conservatively to keep guards in front of them, leading to more attempts from three.

In the last four games, against teams that profile similarly in their willingness to let opponents shoot from deep, Murray has averaged 3.0-6.8 from behind the arc. That is obviously hot shooting for anyone, but especially Murray, who has shot 33.9% from deep overall since the All-Star break. Also to keep in mind is while Murray is adept at getting to the rim, a big body in Valanciunas and an athletic shot-blocker like Jaxson Hayes do wait for him, that could add to the willingness to attempt more threes.

The untrustworthiness of the hot shooting makes this only a half-unit play but the additional volume makes it a value play, nonetheless.

Risk: 0.5 units on FanDuel to win 1.2 units. (Playable to +150)

For the most up-to-date picks check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord. This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks (and those from the rest of the betting staff) on the year. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.

This article is intended for entertainment purposes and adult users only. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem.