2022 NFL Draft: Top-10 Pick Odds, Predictions & Bets

Every year someone asks me what my favorite time of the year is as a sports bettor. I’m sure they anticipate me saying the NFL or NCAAB season as those are the two core sports I bet on. The answer is neither one of those sports, though, it’s the NFL Draft. Every year I have more action on the draft than half an NFL season combined. You might think that’s insane but the reality is it’s the softest market of the year, and it’s solely information-based. Even if you have the right read on a football or basketball game, anything can happen. A corner trips and some fifth-string wideout burns the secondary for a 40-yard touchdown. College basketball’s NCAA tournament has been coined “March Madness” for a reason.

In the NFL Draft, crazy things can happen relative to public expectation but there is no game to be played. It’s just a group of people in a war room making what they consider to be educated decisions based on their evaluations and team needs. Reading the tea leaves, understanding each team and how they make decisions, as well as a few well-placed sources, can make betting on the NFL Draft extremely profitable. Over the next two weeks, I’ll be breaking down a bunch of the different 2022 NFL Draft betting markets available on FanDuel Sportsbook. Today we look at the top-10 pick market.

2022 Draft NFL Draft Date & Time

Date: Thursday, April 28 (Round 1), Friday, April 29th ( Rounds 2 & 3) & Saturday, April 30th (Rounds 4-7)

Time: 8:00 PM EST (Round 1), 7:00 PM EST (Rounds and 3), &12:00 PM EST (Rounds 4-7)

Channels: NFL Network, ESPN & ABC, also FuboTV Livestream

More 2022 NFL Draft Resources: Mock Draft | Big Board | Dalton Kates' Prop Bets | Draft Podcast Notes | Move the Line Props Betting Tracker | Draft Betting Odds & Tracker

Top-10 Pick Odds

Top-10 Pick Notes & Bets

Ahmad Gardner, CB, Cincinnati

Odds: -550

Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner will very likely go within the top 10 picks of the draft, but that’s already reflected with his -550 odds. Based on their comments, the amount of time they have spent with him, and his fit in Wink Martingale’s scheme, Gardner looks like he will be selected by the New York Giants with the fifth pick. There are better ways to bet on his props but this number is pretty close to a bet that should have much higher odds. The implied probability of -550 is 84.62%. I would probably have this in the 90%+ range at this point, which means it should be -900 or higher.

Malik Willis, QB, Liberty

Odds: -300

Malik Willis could either go second to the Lions, sixth to the Panthers, or eighth to the Falcons. It's 50/50 for him to go to the Lions at second overall, but there is a pretty consistent drumbeat of reports linking the Panthers to Pickett. The Falcons are a wild card as they need help pretty much everywhere and have a bridge quarterback in Marcus Mariota in place. I have the Falcons penciled in for a wideout but it wouldn’t be surprising if they took a quarterback, as our own Anthony Staggs has predicted in his mock. All that being said, there is a ton of uncertainty around Willis’ draft stock, as he could go as high as second or as low as 20 to the Steelers. I wouldn’t lay more than -110 on this, let alone -300.

Charles Cross, OL, Mississippi State

Odds: -300

I’m really surprised Charles Cross has so much juice. According to Grinding the Mocks, his expected draft position is currently 11.3, and a lot of his draft stock will revolve around how the top of the board breaks. If Ikem Ekwonu and Evan Neal are selected in the top three of the draft, Cross could easily be selected at six or nine. If pass-rushers and wideouts leap up the board and linemen start to fall, Cross could wait to hear his name selected in the mid-teens. This is far too risky of a bet at -300 odds.

Jermaine Johnson II, EDGE, Florida State

Odds: -220

Jermaine Johnson’s draft position over/under was at 10.5 for the longest time. That changed now that he's being linked to the Jets (4th or 10th pick) and the seahawks at nine. His over/under has since dropped to 9.5 with significant juice on the under in most spots. The move from 10.5 to 9.5 is massive because it excludes the Jets' second pick, a very reasonable landing spot for Johnson. At this point, if you still want to bet on Johnson’s under, laying -220 to be a top-10 pick is the better way to go about it.

Kyle Hamiton, Safety, Notre Dame

Odds: -200

This is a massive avoid for me. After opening up with a draft position of 5.5, Kyle Hamilton's draft stock has taken a tumble to 8.5 with juice to the over. He reportedly ran a 4.7 40-yard dash at his Pro Day and he already plays a devalued position. I would avoid betting on this.

Drake London, WR, USC

Odds: -125

Drake London’s draft position over/under has gone from 12.5 to 10.5. I like for him to be a top-10 pick here due to the amount of need at the position from teams picking in the top 10. The Jets (4 and 10), Giants (5 and 7), and Falcons (8) all need wideouts. It wouldn’t surprise me if both of the New York teams drafted a wideout with one of their picks and the Falcons' wide receiver depth chart looks like a middling USFL team. If you didn’t get down on the under at 12.5, London to be a top-10 pick at -125 is a solid look.

Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU

Odds: -120

Derek Stingley is recovering from a Lisfranc injury but ran in the low 4.4s at his Pro Day and looked explosive in other drills according to scouts. He is very talented and would be a great fit on multiple teams selecting in the top 10, including the Seahawks at nine overall. I’m personally not betting him to go in the top 10 but the odds are about right.

Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State

Odds: -110

This is a position of need in the top 10. Garrett Wilson has been linked with the Falcons in a few early mock drafts but I’m not sold on it. There is a better bet to be a top-10 pick at the same position further down the board.

Kenny Pickett, QB, Pittsburgh

Odds: +115

In my mind, Kenny Pickett is either Panthers or bust. Willis has more upside but Pickett seems to be more “pro-ready.” I think he goes at six to the Panthers but you can bet on that specifically for +150, so there’s no point with this bet at +115.

Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama

Odds: +300

As I alluded to in Wilson’s section, Jameson Williams is a great bet to be a top-10 pick. We hit this at +900 in 4for4’s subscriber-only Discord, but I would still consider playing it down to +200. Peter Schrager recently mentioned he is the No. 1 wide receiver on multiple team’s boards and there are rumors both the Giants and Jets are infatuated with Williams. With that being said, there is a great chance he is a top-10 selection.

Jordan Davis, DL, Georgia

Odds: +350

From a talent perspective, I don’t see a reason why Jordan Davis can’t be a top-10 pick in a class like this, but it’s tough to pinpoint a spot for him. His over/under is 13.5, so at +350 odds, it’s not a terrible look. However, if the over/under is 13.5, it’s worth a sprinkle on him to go in the top 10 and embrace some of the variances of the NFL Draft.

Trevor Penning, OL, Northern Iowa

Odds: +600

Trevor Penning is pretty much the clear fourth offensive tackle behind Ekonwu, Neal, and Cross. For Penning to go in the top 10 it would essentially require all of those three to also be drafted in the top 10. It’s certainly possible but I’m not sure it’s something I want to bet on. Even if the other three do go, there is a very small window for him to be selected. This is a pass from me.

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