2022 NFL Draft: First Quarterback Odds, Predictions & Bets

Every year someone asks me what my favorite time of the year is as a sports bettor. I’m sure they anticipate me saying the NFL or NCAAB season as those are the two core sports I bet on. The answer is neither one of those sports, though, it’s the NFL Draft. Every year I have more action on the draft than half an NFL season combined. You might think that’s insane but the reality is it’s the softest market of the year, and it’s solely information-based. Even if you have the right read on a football or basketball game, anything can happen. A corner trips and some fifth-string wideout burns the secondary for a 40-yard touchdown. College basketball’s NCAA tournament has been coined “March Madness” for a reason.

In the NFL Draft, crazy things can happen relative to public expectation but there is no game to be played. It’s just a group of people in a war room making what they consider to be educated decisions based on their evaluations and team needs. Reading the tea leaves, understanding each team and how they make decisions, as well as a few well-placed sources, can make betting on the NFL Draft extremely profitable. I’m coming off my fourth-straight year of beating the NFL draft prop market. We ripped off 12 units in the first round alone last year. If you want just our best bets, find out how to get a subscription ($179) for $10.

Over the next two weeks, I’ll be breaking down a bunch of the different 2022 NFL Draft betting markets available on FanDuel Sportsbook. If you missed it, I already broke down both the top-5 and top 10 pick markets.

2022 Draft NFL Draft Date & Time

Date: Thursday, April 28 (Round 1), Friday, April 29th ( Rounds 2 & 3) & Saturday, April 30th (Rounds 4-7)

Time: 8:00 PM EST (Round 1), 7:00 PM EST (Rounds and 3), &12:00 PM EST (Rounds 4-7)

Channels: NFL Network, ESPN & ABC, also FuboTV Livestream

More 2022 NFL Draft Resources: Mock Draft | Big Board | Dalton Kates' Prop Bets | Draft Podcast Notes | Move the Line Props Betting Tracker | Draft Betting Odds & Tracker

First Quarterback Drafted Odds

First Quarterback Drafted Notes & Bets

Unlike top-five or top-10 pick markets, where multiple players could be selected, only one player can be the first quarterback drafted. This sounds obvious but I think it helps to get in that mindset when handicapping this market.

Malik Willis, QB, Liberty

Odds: -140

Malik Willis opened at +150 to be the first quarterback selected but saw his stock rise throughout the pre-draft process. He played well in the Senior Bowl, making some eye-opening throws at his Pro Day. He also reportedly fared well in his interviews. We took a piece of action on Willis to be the first QB at +150. Shortly after his stellar pre-draft performances, Willis moved all the way up to -200 to be the first QB taken. Despite being the heavy favorite, it's tough to pinpoint many other teams at the top of the draft interested in Willis outside of the Detroit Lions. I still think the Lions are very much in play at No. 2, considering their team structure and what they need. They have a solid bridge quarterback in Jared Goff, an ascending weapon in Amon-Ra St. Brown, and draft capital to build around him in future years. They also coached him at the Senior Bowl and the coaching staff reportedly loves Willis. Even with all that, they are very interested in Kayvon Thibodeaux and Aidan Hutchinson should he fall.

The issue is, if he doesn’t go at pick No. 2, when does he go? Atlanta at eight is in play but their roster is absolutely barren. Drafting a project quarterback with literally nothing around him is a fool's errand. Atlanta's wide receiver depth chart is legitimately the worst in the league and their offensive line is brutal. A player like Willis has next to no chance to succeed in that scenario. Carolina at pick six is in the quarterback market but recent reports have them trading for Jimmy Garoppolo or Baker Mayfield. It is becoming less and less likely they stay put and draft a quarterback. Seattle at nine overall could work with Russell Wilson moving to Denver in the offseason. The fit makes sense on paper but there haven’t been many reports about the Seahawks' interest in Willis. There have been multiple reports about the Steelers' interest in Willis and they are a serious trade-up candidate from pick 20. That's not a guarantee, though. Circling back to how this fits with the first quarterback, I wouldn’t want to lay anything more than even money on a quarterback going first with his draft stock increasingly volatile. It’d be one thing if we could confidently say the Lions liked him but if they don’t pick him, one of the next picks would likely be him. The issue is, we can’t.

Kenny Pickett, QB, Pittsburgh

Odds: +130

Like Willis, Kenny Pickett’s draft stock is becoming more and more unstable as we get closer to the draft. A week ago, most people were fairly confident about Pickett being selected at six by the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers were rumored to be out on Jimmy Garoppolo and Baker Mayfield. Their GM, Scott Fitterer, went on record mentioning how important it is to keep drafting or trading for a quarterback until they find the right one. Based on the Panthers’ actions and words, we can safely assume Sam Darnold isn’t the answer. Without second- and third-round picks, the Panthers have three options:

1. Trade for Jimmy Garoppolo or Baker Mayfield.
2. Take a quarterback at six.
3. Trade down and either take a quarterback with that pick or with the assets they acquired by trading down.

A week ago, I would have said option two made the most sense based on reports they're out on Mayfield and Garoppolo. At this point, option No. 1 makes the most sense due to that report flipping. This can obviously change leading up to the draft, but for the time being, it is making me cautious about putting any money on Pickett to be the first quarterback selected. The same question we asked about Willis has to then be asked about Pickett. If not Carolina, then where? The Saints have been rumored to show interest and be in the quarterback market but they don’t pick until 16 and 18. Maybe they trade up, but projecting trade-ups is extremely difficult. No one could have guessed the Bears would trade up with the Dave Gettleman-led Giants to grab Justin Fields. That was Dave Gettleman’s first trade down in his career. Embracing volatility in an uncertain market is usually wise, but at a price of +130, it’s not enough of a payout to take the risk.

Desmond Ridder, QB, Cincinnati

Odds: +1000

The odds on Desmond Ridder being the first QB drafted were 25/1 just a few days ago. Since then, multiple sharp groups hammered that number when reports started trickling out he crushed the pre-draft process and that almost every team has a first-round grade on him. I took a piece of action on him to be a first round-pick at -110 and also sprinkled a bit on him to be the first quarterback taken at 25/1. I still think it’s viable at 10/1. As I mentioned earlier, embracing volatility can be a fruitful endeavor as long as the payout is worth it. Grabbing a signal-caller like Ridder is a perfect example. If the top two quarterbacks don’t have a clear destination in the top 10, they could fall to the late teens or even the 20s, and if every team has a first-round grade on Ridder, all it takes is one team deciding they want him over Willis and Pickett. After the first 10-15 picks, the draft becomes more difficult to predict. We see it in mock drafts all the time. Even the most-accurate mock drafters usually get a good chunk of the top 10 right but might get just 3-4 exact player/team/pick selections right the rest of the draft.

Matt Corral, QB, Ole Miss

Odds: +1400

Matt Corral is the last quarterback with first-round potential in this group. Rumors have been swirling about some teams listing him as the No. 1 quarterback on their draft board, so I can’t fault anyone willing to sprinkle a bit on him. At the end of the day, though, it is a bit of a longshot because we haven’t heard many team-quarterback fits centered around Corral.

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