How Jamison Crowder and Khalil Shakir Fit in Buffalo's Offense

The Buffalo Bills signed Jamison Crowder this offseason to a relatively low-risk contract after they released Cole Beasley and decided against bringing Emmanuel Sanders back into the fold. After spending the first seven years of his career stuck with the now Washington Commanders and New York Jets, Crowder finally finds himself on an explosive offense with elite-level quarterback play. Buffalo later added rookie Khalil Shakir to their wide receiver corps with a fifth-round pick in this year's Draft.

Last season, the Bills averaged 29.8 points and in 2020, they were at 29.9—both were the third-highest marks in the league. Not only that, but Buffalo has been one of the most pass-heavy offenses in the NFL. Last season, the Bills were seventh with 37.7 pass attempts per game and they averaged the same number in 2020 when they finished 10th. There will be opportunities to be had with Josh Allen at quarterback as long as he's got something left in the tank. What should fantasy managers be expecting from the seven-year veteran this season?

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What Does Jamison Crowder Bring to the Table?

The former Blue Devil has been exclusively a slot receiver throughout his career. He's run over 75% of his routes from the slot and this is the reason Buffalo decided to bring him into the fold. They released Beasley this offseason after three productive seasons in Buffalo. Crowder will be given the chance to step into Beasley's role, which has presented plenty of fantasy relevance in any PPR scoring, especially in 2020.

While Crowder has never surpassed 1,000 yards receiving—or 850 yards for that matter—he's been a solid contributor since being taken in the fourth round by Washington. Despite being a late-round rookie, he showed well in his first year in the NFL. He earned 78 targets and caught 59 of them for 604 yards. He's always done well earning targets and it's for this reason fantasy managers should be open-minded to the idea of Crowder being a fantasy-relevant player this season.

Based on the pass attempts the Bills have averaged the past two seasons—641 in a 17-game schedule—eliminating Crowder's rookie season, his lowest target share of his career would have equaled 107 targets. His highest target share would amount to 158. That's quite the range and there's no reason to expect Crowder to approach the latter figure, especially with Stefon Diggs in town. But it's possible he could pass the century mark, even if it is somewhat unlikely considering how many returning hands on deck they have returning.

The former New York Jet will need ample volume to be a dependable fantasy asset because he hasn't shown the ability to be a threat down the field. He has a career average of 11.2 yards per reception and he has only one season where he averaged over 13 yards per reception. With deep-ball options in Diggs and Gabriel Davis already on the roster and with Crowder largely lacking that skillset, fantasy managers shouldn't be expecting Crowder to make plays down the field, even if his quarterback is Josh Allen.

His career touchdown rate is just 4.58%, which also shows a lack of upside. Although, some of that is due to the poor quarterback play he's received in the past. However, he hasn't typically been a formidable red-zone option and is unlikely to become one in Buffalo with red-zone weapons Dawson Knox, Diggs, and Davis already in town. He's been a dependable receiver in his career, but that has rarely resulted in being a reliable fantasy football asset.

* - Missed seven games. ** - Missed four games.

This should all be taken with a grain of salt since he spent four years in Washington and three in New York, not exactly two places known for their fantasy football goodness.

Can Josh Allen Brighten Jamison Crowder's Fantasy Value?

Is it possible? Sure, it is. Fantasy managers have already seen that happen with Cole Beasley and Crowder is a Beasley clone. In Beasley's seven years in Dallas prior to signing with Buffalo, he had one season with more than 700 yards. In year one with the Bills, he finished with 778 yards and set a career-high in year two with 967 yards. However, Crowder has struggled with injuries the last two seasons, missing four games in 2020 and 2021. There's also Isaiah McKenzie and Dawson Knox who had a breakout year of sorts last year. Beasley, up until last season, did not have any competition as the team's and Allen's preferred short-yard option. Crowder won't have that same advantage this upcoming season.

McKenzie also profiles primarily as a slot receiver and if Crowder and McKenzie split slot duties, the upside for both of them is significantly hindered. There are a fair amount of questions regarding Buffalo's passing offense behind Diggs. While everyone knows he is going to lead the way, how the targets are distributed after him is completely up in the air.

Davis has shown exceptional efficiency when he's gotten his chances, but his playing time just hasn't been there yet. Is that because the coaching staff thought he needed more time to develop his skills or is it because the coaches simply do not think he's good enough? After all, they brought in John Brown the year before and Emmanuel Sanders last season. Is this the year he finally steps into that No. 2 role behind Diggs? He's shown, in spurts, that he may be capable of handling that role, but it remains to be seen.

While Knox followed the trend of tight ends breaking out in their third season, a large portion of that breakout season was on the back of an unsustainable touchdown rate. Still, Allen and Knox displayed a great deal of chemistry and it's reasonable to expect Knox to only continue to get better.

Fantasy managers should tread lightly in regards to Crowder's fantasy value because Diggs, McKenzie, Davis, and Knox have already played in Buffalo's system. Crowder is the new face and it may take time to get comfortable in a new system. There's also no guarantee Crowder is going to get Beasley's role over McKenzie. Even if Crowder does get Beasley's full role, he's averaged 10.1, 11.1, and 7.6 points in his three seasons in Buffalo. Unfortunately, the most recent season—the 7.6 PPG season—is the closest to what Crowder will see in 2022 in terms of roster construction and target competition with Knox's ascension.

Fantasy managers should be treating Crowder as nothing more than a WR5 who may have WR3 in an absolute best-case scenario circumstance.

The Fantasy Fallout in Buffalo

While the immediate thought may be to downgrade Gabriel Davis or assume his third-year breakout won't happen, Crowder's signing is unlikely to impact that. Crowder has always operated almost exclusively as a slot receiver—if Davis breaks out, it will be because he's the starting receiver opposite Diggs. It wasn't Beasley who held Davis back last year, it was Emmanuel Sanders. Once Sanders got hurt, Davis began to break out even with Beasley on the field. That's because they play entirely different positions. The same should be expected in regards to Crowder.

Davis has been brought along slowly by the Bills, but they finally seem fit to give him the chance to shine. He's always shown potential since being drafted in 2020 when presented with opportunities. As a rookie, he finished with 599 yards and seven touchdowns. He proved to be a red zone threat and averaged a whopping 17.1 yards per reception. While many were hoping for a second-year breakout, that didn't happen. The Bills signed Emmanuel Sanders and Davis finished with just a 50% snap share. Despite the limited playing time again, Davis once again popped when his opportunities presented themselves, finishing with six touchdowns, and displayed his chops as a downfield threat finishing with a 15.7 yard per reception average. Moving into a full-time role in 2022, Davis has the potential to have a third year breakout. It's not out of the question he could finish with double-digit touchdowns after securing 13 in his first two seasons as a part-time player. If he's able to find the end zone as frequently as he has in years one and two, Davis could even finish as a WR2, although a WR3 finish is a more realistic one.

If Crowder's signing limits anyone's ceiling on the Bills, it's Dawson Knox. He had a huge season in 2021, scoring nine touchdowns on just 71 targets. If he's planning on repeating that level of fantasy production, he's going to need more targets and this is where Crowder becomes an issue. Before Crowder signed in Buffalo, fantasy managers could have reasonably expected Knox to get a larger share with Beasley's vacated targets, especially if he settled in as Allen's preferred short-yardage option. However, with Crowder's arrival, he'll soak up some of the targets that were designed for Beasley, targets that will no longer find their way into Knox's hands.

The Bills largely ignored the receiver position in this year's NFL Draft, only selecting Khalil Shakir out of Boise State in the fifth round. While he had himself a nice career at Boise State, finishing with just under 3,000 yards and 20 touchdowns in four seasons, his low draft capital tells fantasy managers he's most likely a depth piece at this time. He's mostly viewed as a slot receiver prospect and if he's more NFL ready than his draft capital indicates, he could push Crowder for playing time, although that should not be the expectation.

The Bottom Line

• Jamison Crowder is nothing more than a late-round dart throw who could pay dividends in PPR scoring leagues.
• He should be completely off draft radars in standard leagues.
• The addition of Crowder doesn't elevate Allen's ceiling at all.
• With Crowder in town, it may not be realistic to assume Knox receives a much larger share in 2022.
• Crowder's addition does not impact Davis or Diggs as both profiles more as outside receivers and should be mostly unaffected by this signing.
• Diggs continues to be a top-5 receiver and Davis now has legitmate top-30 upside this season.