USFL Week 5: Best Bets

We are in the throes of the USFL betting season at 4for4, and with that comes a new weekly article covering one of the football leagues trying to vie for your eyeballs as we wait for the NFL to return.

Another product that your eyeballs should be locked on during the USFL seasons is Run The Sims. 4for4 has partnered with RTS and is offering 10% off their products with the coupon code 4for4. 4for4 partnering with Run The Sims is the best partnership since Jeff Fisher and poor decision-making on a football field.

Each week I will write about lines, over/under, player props, and more of what I am betting. For more talk about USFL, check out 4for4’s Discord.

USFL Week 5 Best Bets

*Lines accurate at time of publication.

Michigan Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Bandits (-2) (-110 DraftKings)

If you watched the bananas ending to Michigan-Philadelphia last Friday then you know why I like the Bandits. Shea Patterson was able to move the ball inches at a time against one of the worst offenses in the USFL and still lost. Despite not being listed on the most recent injury report, Patterson’s middle finger on his throwing hand ballooned after taking a hit and clearly hampered what was already a poor throwing motion.

Michigan’s best bet is to run RB Reggie Corbin 30 times. His 308 rushing yards are third-best in the USFL, including consecutive 100-yard performances. If the Panthers' head coach showed any level of competency, he’d run Corbin as his top back, but Corbin has not cracked 50% of running back touches in his three games.

Imagine thinking Fisher is competent. His kicker is a punter by trade and continues to flounder, including missing the game-winner last week when he could have just run the ball to take the lead.

Risk: 1.1 units on DraftKings to win 1

Birmingham Stallions vs. Philadelphia Stars Over 36 Points (-110, DraftKings)

Case Cookus is a competent injury replacement for Stars QB Bryan Scott. His arm strength is not as good (and it showed) against Michigan, but he utilized his closer targets well before trying to stretch the field. He peppered WR Jordan Suell with targets in their win and Suell was excellent no matter where the ball was thrown. Bart Andrus and the Stars have one of the more refined offenses one month in and can put up points so long as the turnovers are limited.

That is something the Stallions have done well. They get home to the quarterback and face the worst offensive line in the USFL (8.28% sack rate allowed).

Despite a down performance from starter-turned back-up QB Alex McGough in Week 4, he was the starter in Week 1 when they handed New Jersey their only loss of the season. The Stallions can also hit paydirt running the ball should McGough or J’Mar Smith have an off game. CJ Marable saw 75% of the backfield touches for Birmingham last week and gets the opportunity to run against the defense that has allowed the highest rush and rush TD rate in the league. The Stars' defense is also allowing a top-three opponent pace, and as we have seen this season, you can put up points with strong rushing offenses.

Risk: 1.1 units on DraftKings to win 1

Pittsburgh Maulers vs Houston Gamblers Under 34 Points (-110, DraftKings)

DK hit the betting trifecta this week with the best lines for each bet. They are the only sportsbook giving 34 points for a total.

Both teams are bottom-three in pace and bottom-four in pass attempts through four weeks. Neither team is turnover-prone, so to speak as they rank towards the bottom of the league in interception rate. The over/under could blow up if Maulers QB Kyle Lauletta gets WR Bailey Gaither back. Gaither has been the key to unlocking the offense when healthy. Houston’s defense allows the most yards per catch and the offense could be hard-pressed to retaliate. Pittsburgh allows the second-fewest yards per receptions and Gamblers QB Clayton Thorson has been a bust (145 pass yards per game). RB Mark Thompson will have his work cut out for him against Pittsburgh, especially if the Maulers continue their positive scoring trajectory. I would take the points with Houston since Pittsburgh does not cover spreads, but putting that much trust in the Gamblers to play a full 60 is something I cannot do.

Risk: 1.1 units on DraftKings to win 1

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